How to Calculate Horse Racing Betting Odds and Payoffs

First Draft Idea - Operation Speedy and Spurious: AKA Fast and Furious in Blades in the Dark

Operation Speedy and Spurious: AKA Fast and Furious in Blades in the Dark
Still fairly new to the game so I'd love feedback, explanation of where I butchered mechanics, improvements, ect.
In a world that is often a dark underbelly of crime, death, and doom the people need to have their moments of joy. While some seek to indulge their vices with drugs driving them into a stupor, delving their way into the weird aspects of the world… in a world without much in terms of sporting events how can those who just seek excitement (with maybe a little coin on the side) live their best life?
With the audience sitting along the banks of the canals and the Bluecoats tossed a spot of silver to look away for an evening, all we need is a couple crews ready to put their souped-up boats and captains to the test.
Rules:
  1. It’s a race. Get your ready, set, and get going.
  2. All race boats must be able to pass as “canal legal”. If an unbribed bluecoat is going to shake you down as you’re getting to the starting line, you’re likely putting everyone at risk.
  3. The track is pre-set. All racers know the route. Anyone caught taking shortcuts will be disqualified… so you better not get caught.
  4. Outside interference in the race from a racer’s gang or their allies is strongly frowned upon This is meant to be an event of joy, so trying to meddle in the purity of the race shouldn’t be wanted by anyone… no matter how much money is being bet on the favorites.
  5. Most critically, the Master of Ceremonies (MoC) needs to dip their beak on these events. Selling tickets, collecting their vig from the “legal” bookies, promoting local business sponsorships… All the MoC needs to do is make sure that things are exciting, by any means necessary.
  6. Winners take home a prize pool. Losers take home what’s left of their boats.
  7. If some Blue Coats aren’t sufficiently bribed or your enforcers can’t hold the line, everyone probably should have a plan to bug out and not get arrested for their roles in underground racing.
Mechanic Rules:
  1. With however many racers you have, it is important to determine their odds. This translates into the number of D6 they’re rolling for the race. If you are having a trained navy crew up against a bunch of ragamuffin orphans, It’s fair to assume that the seamen are rolling an extra die.
  2. Depending on how long you want the race to go for, break the track down into “segments”. A short track can have four rounds of rolls. A grand prix can be a bit more intense. Really depends on how much you want to delve into the story.
  3. For the first track break do a X D6 roll for your racers like any other skill check. Take the high roll (unless they’re rolling at a disadvantage). The highest number is in the lead with each other racer falling a boat length behind for each number lower they roll. For example if the Orphans roll a 6 while the Seamen roll a 5, there is a lead of one ship.
  4. Repeat the process for each segment, but now instead the leads change based on prior outcomes. If on the second turn, the Orphans roll 5 and the Seamen roll 4, the navy craft is now 2 lengths behind.
  5. If (gods forbid) interference between vessels occur, damage can accrue that slows them down. When the navy crew sees they’re falling behind, the monsters may take a shot at the Orphan’s engine, causing it to sputter. A successful attack is going to really slow those ragamuffins down.
  6. If (also gods forbid) some random acts of chaos are mixed in, like the MoC setting off some pyrotechnics to excite the crowd, crews take another skill roll to avoid damage.
  7. If a ship is rolling less than 0 die (i.e. worse than rolling at a disadvantage) their crew’s skill can’t keep things going and they’re not going to finish.
  8. The order at the final roll determines the winner. If the Orphans keep one boat length lead at the finish line, they take home the trophy.
  9. In the case of a tie, a simple single die high roll determines who edged out the photo finish.
Additional Mechanics:
Not everyone wants to race. Some people like betting. Based on the advantages assessed at the beginning of the race, payouts are set. The favorites come in at 2:1 payoffs with everyone else going higher from there. If you want to get a rough insight into the system, check out real world horse race betting.
Other Flavor:
DM’s discretion for a bit of flair on these things.
Do you want rival gangs to be competing? Skovlanders are treated poorly by a lot of the city, does that translate to the track? Would a member of the City Council be interested in this as a way to gain some public support for their own personal goals? Are the down on their luck Gray Cloaks interested in being the security? Lots of options here.
submitted by Snakebite7 to bladesinthedark [link] [comments]

Calculating odds for home casino horse racing game.

For a casino game night, I'm trying to build a horse racing game. The game should be simple to play, but still fun for everyone. My idea was a game board with 6 horses, a '27' round lap (got a big board with that, so that would be easiest to use), a dice for each horse (or 6 decks of playing cards using the Ace to 6 cards) and two extra dice. One of the extra dice determines what horse gets a bonus roll each round, and the 2nd dice is the neutral dice to determine the bonus steps.
Now, I want to make it a little more interesting with different starting positions. I want 1 horse to start at +3, 4 horses at 0 and 1 horse at -6. So basically, the board is actually 33 steps (first on 34 and up wins).
So I made the following Excel spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vSAfaiaqMIPbsSj4_M6DLexkzwLJ6w1ePCwwog64fGiWY6KcZ4k8A4eW5r6Kobz1sWbeJYBzYdhrNgL/pub?output=xlsx
The problem is that I do not know how to calculate the extra roll. I would assume the extra roll would have bigger impact on the odds of horse number 6 (starting at -6), but that is just my guess.
I did a test run with 133 runs (read; counted) without the extra roll ended up with horse 1 winning 51 times (~38% win), horse 2-5 winning 81 times (~61% chance win, ~15% each), and horse 6 had 1 win in 133 runs, (~1% chance)
Payout would be '3/2' for horse 1, 11/2' horses 2-5, and '99/1' for horse 6. (100 games with 6 players, all betting $2 on a different horse each game, this would result in $17 a profit for the casino)
Some aditonal rules that shouldn't really affect the odds; After two rolls, players have the option to double down. Players who join during a race can still bet, but not after 2 rolls. The payout is always '1/1' for a late bet on any horse. You can only bet on 1 horse .
In case of a draw (for example, horse 1 on 34, horse 2 on 35 and horse 3 on 35, horse 1 would lose, and horses 2 and 3 would keep rolling until one of them rolls higher.
So my question; are my odds correct? Would the odds be influeced by the extra roll? And how do I simulate games (with and without bonus rolls), for example 1 million games, to see a clear view of winning chances?
submitted by HarryNohara to askmath [link] [comments]

I've found a new grinding method, which has actually worked out well for me.

What you need to set it up:

2-3 outfits (can be same clothes, just save in different outfit slots)
30k to 50k chips

So, you head to the Diamond Casino, go in, and head to the Inside Track room. There, do single player races. There will always be 2 horses ranging from EVENS to 5/1. If you can, always place a max bet ($10,000) on the horse with the best odds. Usually, that horse will win the race. Here's the payout for each of those top 5 odd payouts on Max bets.

EVENS - 20k, 10k profit
2/1 - 30k, 20k profit
3/1 - 40k, 30k profit
4/1 - 50k, 40k profit
5/1 - 60k, 50k profit

What happens when there's two horses with the same odds? Well, a rule I used to use was to pick the horse with the lower number (all horses have numbers 1-6), but I don't think that affects it too much, so just pick the horse you think will win.

So, once you've gotten a first win, let's say you win on a 2/1 horse, so your chips go from 50k to 70k, get off the table, and then save your game by accessing the quick menu and changing your outfit. Then, sit back down and continue grinding. This way, if you start to get a big losing streak, you can quit before saving and load back to a better chip state.

However, if you lose once, don't worry, you only lose 10k from each Max bet loss. A win on a 2/1 or 3/1 horse immediately makes you back that money, and a little extra!
50k, lose 10k; 2/1 win from 40k 60k, 3/1 win from 40k 70k.

From here, keep grinding until you reach a set milestone. I usually do 100-150k chips. Then, I go to the front desk, and trade in the chips to get back down to 50k, and go again, now $50k to $100k richer, with my nice old 50k chips. Usually, I can reach that milestone in 5-15 minutes, which means I have an easy way to get nearly 100k with no risk of griefers, and a way to keep my progress safe in case my luck goes bad!

I've grinded like this a few times, and never for more than an hour at a time, and I've gained at least 60k every single time. It's a more efficient way to quickly gain money than other methods.

I originally thought about using this with Blackjack, but it's a bit harder. Blackjack has quicker hands, meaning you can get on a roll more quickly, and you also have control to play and try to win, but one loss in Blackjack is a lot harder to make back up than a loss in a horse race.

Is this the most surefire way to make a lot of money? No, and who knows if your luck with the races is as good as mine, or even if you can use this method in your country due to gambling laws. However, if you're looking for a virtually risk free way to get 100k to 200k in under 2 hours, this is likely the right way for you!
submitted by tstols to gtaonline [link] [comments]

Santa Anita Friday January 10th Analysis

Welcome to Santa Anita! We had an outstanding beginning to kick off the meet last Friday, as our top selections went 3 of 9 including a $52.00 winner in the last race! Our longshot of the day in race 8 ran 2nd at odds of 20-1, setting up for some excellent exacta and DD payouts! While the top pick got home in 3 of 9 races, playing all of the A horses would have given you 8 of 9 winners, with the sole loser being the race where I tried to single and my only B horse ended up winning.
The bar has been set pretty high, so let’s keep the good times rolling this weekend!
2020 Winter Santa Anita Statistics Last Week: 33% (3/9 win, 8/9 ITM), $6.82 ROI per $2 win bet ($18 wagered, $61.40 returned) Santa Anita Winter 2020: 33% (3/9 win, 8/9 ITM), $6.82 ROI per $2 win bet ($18 wagered, $61.40 returned)
Race 1: [F]Mdn 55k 5½ Furlongs (T)
Picks: 1,2 / 5
Despite conventional wisdom and historical trends, the 5.5-furlong turf sprints at Santa Anita have not played very kindly to speed lately, quite a change from the downhill 6.5-furlong races we used to see. None of the 8 turf sprints this meet have been won wire-to-wire, and the winner was on average 2.5-3 lengths off the pace at the first call. That does not bode well for early favorite #7 Raneem. This Baffert trained filly is still a maiden after 6 starts, and it truly feels like the barn isn’t sure what to do with her at this point. They’ve tried dirt, then turf, and now back to turf; she debuted with blinkers, the hood came off after 2 races, and now she adds blinkers once again. There is a spotty race record with layoffs in between, and she wheels back on less than 10 days of rest, a move almost unheard of for the Baffert barn. There are enough question marks against her that I will be fading this favorite on a day where fields are short and prices might be hard to find. #1 Malibu Cat is my top selection. She ran a speed figure in her debut as a 2-year-old that would already make her competitive in this race, and she now makes her first start as a four-year-old off of an 11-month layoff. She appears to be working lights-out in the mornings, and Glatt is an average 13% with horses off 90+ day layoffs. Turf ace Prat climbs aboard, and I’m hopeful he will elect to rate her rather than send hard from the rail. With the right trip she is the one to beat. #2 Dance Costume is the lone debut runner in the field today. Mixed signals on the pedigree, as Union Rags offspring typically fare poorly on grass (3% first time turf winners) but the dam was a stakes winner sprinting on turf and has already produced 3 turf winners from 4 starters. Yakteen has strong numbers with debut turf runners, getting 29% winners over the past 3 years with a strong $5.47 ROI. Rosario sees fit to take the mount, which is always encouraging. #5 Lavender is the wildcard of the field. This lightly raced filly has run second in both of her starts to date in Ireland, and that was against fields of 14 and 15 horses, so she certainly won’t be intimidated by today’s group of 7. The major questions are that she hasn’t been seen for 15 months, and Matthew Chew has a terrible 0/40 record with horses coming off of 90+ day layoffs. If she’s fit she could surprise, but I’m inclined to watch one first.

Race 2: [F]Clm 16000n3L 6½ Furlongs
Picks: 2 / 4,1
#2 Busy Paynter appears to be the one to beat in the second race of the day. She dueled between horses last out against much better at Del Mar to finish a respectable fourth, beaten less than 2 lengths when in for open claiming company at $32,000. She gets a drop into nonwinners of 3 lifetime company and projects to be the one to catch on the front end. The #6 Winsinfashion is the other logical speed, but I believe Busy Paynter is quicker and classier and should be able to draw off late. #4 Leading Indicator is one of a few horses who will likely try to sit a stalking trip a length or two off the pace and make a move into the turn. Dean Pederson is a smaller barn, but he spots his horses well given his 24% strike rate throughout 2019. Toss the turf try where she didn’t care for the surface, and this looks like a 4-year-old who is peaking and heading the right direction in her form cycle while stepping up a bit in class. #1 Cimarron has been quite a hot commodity lately, having been through a number of decent barns across the country throughout 2019. She appeared to be inching forward late in 2019 but has since disappeared ever since the October race. She has a knack for breaking slowly, as she’s been “off slow” or “bobbled start” in her last 4 races, and missing the break is often even more detrimental for sprinters as she cuts back to 6.5 furlongs. She isn’t one I feel strongly about, but I struggle to find anyone I like beyond the top two picks in this spot.

Race 3: [F}OC 40000n1x 1 Mile
Picks: 1,4 / 2
Race 3 brings us a small but interesting field of older fillies and mares going a mile on the main track. This race is a unique handicapping puzzle as 4 of the 5 runners are listed as early/presser types, with the last runner an early speed need-the-lead sort. This race could very well set up with a nuclear pace up front, or if all the jockeys elect to rate we could see one horse steal it on the lead. That said, #1 Persepolis is the top selection. This lightly raced mare is 5-years-old but only raced 5 times, giving her every right to improve today. Expectations were clearly high for this one, as she sold for over $500k with a gorgeous turf pedigree and was sent to the Chad Brown barn. Pedigree aside, she appears to be better over the dirt, as she owns a win and two places in her 3 starts on the main track. She has early speed, but she also does not need the lead which gives Prat options in the irons. Her speed figures stack up favorably against most of this field, and her last try at a route was deceptively strong, as the winner freaked that day but Persepolis was still over 4 lengths clear of the show horse when sent off at odds of 4/5. The lukewarm top choice in a surprisingly tricky field. #4 Amatara is an interesting player here and a major threat in an open race. While her form may appear inconsistent at first, you’ll notice both of her poorer efforts lately came at Los Alamitos, a unique bull ring track with tight turns that some horses struggle to handle. She was also 3-wide for the majority of the race in her last effort on a day when Los Al received an unusual amount of rain during the day, forcing them to seal the track midway through the card. If you forgive that effort, her lone start at Santa Anita produced a monstrous race when she destroyed an overmatched maiden field when routing for the first time. A return to form of her maiden score likely puts her in the winner’s circle again today. #2 Velvet Queen is the slight morning line favorite in this field, and she is one that I will likely use somewhere but ideally want to beat. She got away with a slow pace last out when trying dirt for the first time, and she managed to hold on late to win in a starter allowance field. She now has to tackle two turns on the dirt for the first time, and there’s enough other speed in here to keep her honest. However, we truly haven’t seen just how good she might be over the main track, and she has enough early speed to burn early if the rider chooses. A defensive use.
Race 4: MC 50000 6½ Furlongs
Picks: 5,2 / 8 / 1,4
In what appears to be a continuation of short priced winners, I’m forced to take #5 Benny Chang on top in race 4. Peter Miller and Joel Rosario are perennially overbet on the west coast, but when they are winning at 38% together it makes them an awful dangerous combination to fade, regardless of the price. This son of Cross Traffic was a little wide when contesting an honest pace last out, and of the 3 horses fighting for the lead he was by far the best of the speeds, as the other leaders tired to finish 5th and 6th, including the 6/5 favorite. He has to negotiate an extra furlong today, but there doesn’t appear to be any other speeds entered today who can keep up with him on the front end. #2 Palace Prince is an interesting contender. This colt showed promise early, running third to Wrecking Crew and Tizamagician, both of whom are Derby hopefuls. Things haven’t gone quite as planned on the stretch out though, as he regressed significantly in his next 2 efforts when trying two turns. I think the cutback to sprinting distances, coupled with the barn switch, class drop, and first start as a gelding, can make this horse a contender in a bit of a weak field. No published works since December 20th is concerning, but Glatt has good numbers off of medium layoffs and I trust this one still has enough ability to get the job done. #8 Big Hoof Dynamite catches my attention purely due to the fact that top west coast jockey Prat climbs aboard for a relatively unknown trainer in Jay Nehf. I always take notice when top jockeys get up for small barns, and I have to think this horse is live for Prat to take the mount. There doesn’t appear to be any world-beaters in this spot, so this one doesn’t seem completely overmatched on speed figures if the trip fits.

Race 5: [F][S] MC 50000 6 Furlongs
Picks: 6,5 / / 3,7
Race 5 is a tough race, as I don’t like the early favorite but none of the first-time starters are very impressive either. While I'm not throwing the favorite out complete, I am going to use a different horse on top. Before getting into the rest of the field, let’s look at the early favorite, #5 Rickie Nine Toe’s. He ran a surprisingly strong race in debut going 5.5 furlongs at the generous price of 17-1, then looked every bit a winner in his next race when bet down to 4/5 favoritism only to get caught late by a 54-1 first time starter and ultimately fade to third. Note that race was at 6 furlongs and at maiden 30k vs the maiden 50k he faces today. Periban has poor stats with 1st off the claim (1/27) as well as first time blinkers (0/11). Factor in Bejarano’s cold start to the meet (0/20) and possible stamina issues, and this is a favorite who will be a short price and very vulnerable. My top selection is the #6 Nikkileaks. Nikkileaks got a solid education in her debut, taking dirt and passing a few horses to get up for a nonthreatening third late. She flashed speed in her next race, contesting the pace before tiring late. I’m not sure there is a ton of quality in this field, and the addition of blinkers and jockey change to Maldonado signal to me that Glatt wants this horse to show more speed and will have her winging it early. Glatt is 20% with first time blinkers and does well with horses on moderate layoffs, so I think this one could get loose early and prove tough to run down. If Nikkileaks and Rickie Nine Toe’s go toe-to-toe on the lead, I’m interested in #3 H and R’s Girl to come running late. This one doesn’t seem to have much early speed in the AM, but she’s by precocious California sire Smiling Tiger (15% winners first out), out of Sassy Synner, who has already produced 10 winners from 12 starters, including 3 stakes winners. Don’t sleep on Rispoli Umberto, as this Italian invader has already proven he has talent when scoring a mild upset with a brilliant ride on Hootie in the nightcap last Sunday. #7 Smart Girl is the other half of the Krujac pair, and note that Efrain rides for Krujac occasionally and he lands here vs on H and R’s Girl. It sounds as if this one has been slightly outworking H and R’s Girl in the mornings, so she could be another with a shot in a race with bad favorites.

Race 6: [F]Clm 32000 5½ Furlongs (T)
Picks: 4 / 2,5 / 6
#4 Drift Away is the top selection in this turf sprint. We have already covered the developing track trends for turf sprints favoring late runners, so I’m looking for a horse with strong closing ability. There appears to be enough speed in here to keep the pace honest, and I think Drift Away is far and away the best closer in this field. She has won at this distance and over this surface before, and Andrew Lerner is a gaudy 44% when sending out horses second off the layoff. Toss the last race as it was on the wrong surface, and this mare has been competitive at and above the level she finds herself at today. #5 Bako Sweets is the second pick. While this 7-year-old mare has done her best work over the synthetic surface up north, she hasn’t embarrassed herself by any stretch while racing over the lawn. She was a decent fourth two-back when making her first start for Blake Heap off the heels of a 10-month layoff, and her last race was on dirt where she has never been at her best. Despite speed not holding particularly well so far, this one has better than average turn-time and should threaten early if she can improve at all from that October 18th effort. #2 Swirling is one who may get overlooked due to the barn change to low percentage trainer Perez, but don’t be too quick to throw her out. She is another who could sit a good stalking trip behind likely pacesetter Classy Atlantic, and her first race for the Perez barn was every bit as strong as her races for Sadler. Once again, ignore the clunker on the wrong surface in a race where she was in over her head and she could surprise at a generous price.

Race 7: OC 62500n2x 6½ Furlongs
Picks: 1 / 4,5
Race 7 leads me to a top pick that I would normally fade in most situations, #1 McKale. I am a firm believer in fading the non-superstar Baffert horses; those that don’t break their maiden in the first two tries, and generally whatever he sends out on the turf that didn’t debut on grass. This horse struggled mightily at n1x company for an extended period before being overmatched against graded stakes type Flagstaff and then flopping at the 3/2 favorite in September. However, the main reason I’m using him prominently here is the fact that he appears to be textbook lone speed. There is nobody in this field who can go with him early, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he was able to open up a multiple length lead by the first call. He hasn’t turned into the superstar we’ve come to expect from Baffert, but you still cannot afford to ignore a lone speed horse with a rail draw getting the best connections on the west coast, as Drayden and Baffert are clipping along at 54% together from 28 mounts. I’m hoping the layoff gave him a much-needed rest and he will come out sharp today. #4 Manhattan Up comes in with more back class than most of this field, as he spent most of his three-year-old season running against the likes of Mucho Gusto, Roadster (the good version), Extra Hope, Nolo Contesto, and other highly regarded colts. He ran decently in his two turf tries, but I think dirt is definitely his best game. If McKale is unable to take them all the way, Manhattan Up is the one I like most to run them down. #5 Royal Trump is another who makes sense in this spot, and his last race was super impressive when tracking a slow pace to explode late for the upset at 34-1. However, that effort represents a career best for him, and it’s fair to question if he is likely to repeat such a performance while moving up in class. Glatt clearly has this one sharp right now, but if you missed the coming out party at 34-1 against weaker it’s a little tough to love him here at 2-1.

Race 8: [F][S]Mdn 55k 5½ Furlongs (T)
Picks: 2,7,10 // 3,6,8
The final race of the day is a bit of an oddly carded affair, as we get a field of only 8 with 5 also-eligibles waiting to draw in. #2 Bella Vita appears to be the most interesting of all the first-time-starters. This miss turned heads at the Ocala Breeder’s Sale in April when Kaleem Shah purchased her for $400k. Freshman sire Bayern is turning out to be quite a prolific turf influence, as he is getting 16% first time turf winners in his first crop. There is plenty of turf pedigree on bottom as well, as the dam was a black type stakes winner on turf and synthetic and is by strong turf influence Storm Cat. Watch the tote to check for action in this race, but I wouldn’t be surprised if her 7/2 morning line is more like 9/5 at post. Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but Reddam Racing Square Eddie homebreds sprinting on turf with Doug O’Neill and Mario Guitierrez are almost always dangerous. #7 Kissable U’s best effort came when sprinting on the turf against open company, and she now drops back into state-bred restricted company at her preferred distance and back on the grass. She is a major player in a wide-open race. Longshot of the day #10 Too Much Smoke is the AE who seems the biggest threat. While 5-1 may not scream longshot, I don’t believe we are going to see many double-digit odds winners today, so settling on a 5-1 horse as the 4th choice in an 8-horse field is as close as I can get. We already covered how dangerous Miller is at Santa Anita, and you can toss the debut effort where she missed the break and never picked up her feet on the dirt. She has a number of classy half-siblings, including graded stakes turf winner Marckie’s Water and promising allowance winner Opus Won. She will need to find a way to save a bit of ground, but I would expect a much better performance from her today than what we saw in the debut. I absolutely love Clubhouse Ride offspring debuting on turf, as this son of Candy Ride is producing first time turf winners at over 20% so far, so #3 Warren’s Empress is worth a look. While the connections haven’t had the strongest numbers at this meet or with debut runners, I’m willing to be forgiving when I’m getting 10-1 or better with excellent turf pedigree. Note that Velez’s lone win at Santa Anita so far this meet (via DQ) came aboard a Craig Lewis trainer horse, at incredible odds of 46-1. Worth a flier at a price
submitted by ScottRevere to horseracing [link] [comments]

Gambling Addiction

I’ve spent the past decade completely addicted to gambling. I am one of the lucky ones, I didn’t quite let it destroy me. I have been able to hold a life together around it. That said I have been pretty close to losing everything a few times.
So lets go to the start. I was born in Australia, to a modest middle income family. Australia has a huge gambling culture. Its legal and its everywhere. I was born in 1989 so my teenage years were through the mid 2000’s. Something happened in the mid 2000’s that started me on a road to gambling. Chris Moneymaker won the 2003 WSOP (world series of poker) an amateur who entered a $40 tournament rolled his way to Vegas and took out a $2.5 million prize. This has a huge impact on a lot of people from all over the world. Poker players became celebrities and sports stars overnight. The average Joe with no athletic ability could compete in a game of odds and bluffs and win. You could go from an average person on the street to a celebrity overnight. All you needed to do was win. So why am I telling this story? It is because poker was my very first gambling game I was introduced to. It happened in the mid 2000’s after Chris Moneymakers win. My father who had worked at a phosphate company for almost a decade and a half was made redundant. He decided to buy a present for his kids with his payout. We got a brand new Playstation 2. It came with a whole raft of games including ‘WSOP’ a playstation game. It had a classification which was PG13+ (contains gambling references) This for me was the first time I had every been introduced to poker or gambling. I learnt the rules fast enough and before I knew it. WSOP was one of my favourite games. Me and all my friends played it trying to chip up and win big money. It really normalised gambling for us. The game was so easy to win it made it seem like we could easily become pros. Our PS2 game play soon turned into cash games. We used to play with coins 5, 10 and 20 cent coins. We would play for pots up to a couple of dollars. That turned into sit and goes. $5 or $10 buy ins. Winner takes all! Poker games became a semi regular thing for us. Its what we did. Underage drinking and underage poker. At the time I had as friend who had left school and was a chef and a local RSL (a pub with gambling facilities like slot machines and sports/horse betting) he told us there was a bi-weekly poker game. $10 buy ins, big cash prizes and satellites into tournaments at the big casino. We started going, they knew we were underage and shouldn’t be there. We were never asked for ID. They let us in week after week to play poker.
It wasn’t long before we started looking at the TAB and the races. During our poker games we would walk over and start placing bets on dogs and horses. Playing hands of poker and winning horse races. It was great. 16 year old kids feeling like we were living the high life. You see when your after school job pays $9 an hour and you win $30 or $40 on a bet. Thats as good as it got. It started to escalate into the pokies (slot machines) we would walk in and put $5 or $10 into the pokies. Sometimes winning sometimes not. Again none of us were the legal age. We were never asked once by the staff if we should have even been there. No one said anything.
Right now the story seems innocent enough a bunch of teenage kids playing small cash games. Betting a few dollars on horses and a little bit on slots. The issue is I never grew out of it. I never stopped. Let me fast forward a couple of years. I’m 18 years old and out of high school. Its become cultural for me and my friends now. Betting and gambling. Its just what we did. Weeknights after work. A meal and a punt at the local pub. And trust me, Australia has no shortage of place to gamble. I was so into it I applied for a job at the local casino. It was an hours drive from me. I enjoyed the vibe and the atmosphere so much. So there I went 18 years old to go deal blackjack at the casino. I learnt everything about gambling that year. Odds, bets, wagering, table games. I knew it all. I was dating a lovely girl at the time she ran a clothing boutique and lived with her sister. I had great friends. I had a great life. It was all perfect. But my gambling was still there. at this point it hadn’t become an issue. I had never spiralled out of control. It was more social than anything. But working at the casino had a downfall. The hours, my friends all worked normal 9-5 Monday to Friday type jobs. I was working on a 24/7 rotating roster working crazy hours. I would be working 8pm - 4am going home and sleeping waking up at 1pm all my friends were at work. Nothing to do, nowhere to go. I started taking day trips to the pub by myself. Go get some lunch, bet on a few races, kill the time. That was the first time I started gambling by myself. That was my first real red flag. It wasn’t social anymore. It was an isolation activity. I was on my own gambling to pass the time. Lets fast forward a few more months. My job had led me to feel isolated, I was working nigh shifts all through the week and wasn’t seeing my friends or girlfriend enough. When I was awake in my spare time I was on my own and had nothing to do but gamble and it was the first time it was getting bad. The first time I was gambling more than I could afford. My $20 trips to the pokies became $50 then $100 sometimes $200. I was earning $19.50 an hour so a $200 loss was much more than a days wages. Imagine dragging yourself to work for a whole day them paying you and you throwing the money in the bin on the way out. Dumb right! This started to cause issues in my relationship. My isolation was making me depressed, which made me gamble more. I also put on a lot of weight that year. I was average and went to full beer gut. And because I wasn’t dealing with it and I was young and dumb I started blaming my girlfriend. I didn’t want to face that I needed to make changes I took it out on her and blamed her for everything. I straight up sabotaged my own relationship. I look back on those days and hate myself for what a prick I was. I stole money from her, she had a box she was stashing cash in, saving for a new car from memory. I remember one night going into it to take $50 after I blew all my money gambling. I hit my first rock bottom. I ended that relationship. That was the best thing I ever did for her because she deserved a lot better than me. It wasn’t noble though completely selfish. She knew I was struggling and I didn’t want to admit I had a problem. Instead of letting her help me I pushed her way. I never apologised to her for how I treated her.
I moved back home into my mums house. I was 19 almost 20 years old. I opened up to my mum about my gambling. I trusted her and she helped me. From memory I had a very chill period after that relationship breakdown. I quit the casino job and got a normal 9-5, I started seeing friends more regularly, I got into film projects and started a youtube Chanel with a friend, I hit the gym and lost 15kg’s I even saved up and went for a trip to Europe. I still gambled a bit but I was calmer it wasn’t growing me. I was back under control. I came back from Europe in 2010. I was 21 years old. I started a job at a call centre and stagnated in my life a bit. I started to put weight back on, I started gambling again. I don’t even know why. I think I just got bored. Again it escalated. From 21 to about 23 I fell right back the pokies became my game of choice. I had a network of different places I would go to, sometimes nightly and in cycles until I went bust and had to wait for my next pay cheque. I kept gaining weight. You see, fast food is cheap so when you are blowing all your money gambling you don’t eat well. You eat cheap and dirty. So you become depressed, why? Well because you work and have no money and your fat. So to help with depression you gamble. Like most addictions gambling is a self fulfilling prophecy. You are depressed so you gamble, drink, take drugs insert whatever vice you want. That vice then leaves you more depressed so you do it more and more intensely until you hit rock rock rock bottom. This cycle has been my life for the past 5 years. When my life is going good I gamble less. when stuff goes bad I start to gamble, the effects of gambling make it worse I spiral out of control I hit rock bottom I say never again and then within months I’m back where I started.
Gambling always escalates, like drugs you start small and work your way up. Like my story I started playing video games for free, then it was 5 and 10 cent games, then it was $5 and $10’s then $20, then $50 and up and up and up. I have dropped literally $1,000’s of dollars in a matter of hours many times. I remember dropping $3,000 in less than a week once. You just keep going and going and going.
I have done so many things I’m not proud of. I Have stolen from friends and family, lied, blammed, gotten in lots of debt, killed my credit rating and been a dick. The worst part. I have lost all my friends. I really don’t have a best friend anymore. I was never able to stay close enough to anyone
Somehow I have managed to not lose it all. My shame about my gambling has meant I have been able to hold down a job, pay rent, and even a relationship for the past 5 years (we are planning on getting married next year) but to be honest if the truth about me came out, I would lose my girlfriend, my job and everything real fast. I have spent hours I should have been working gambling. I have hid it well and never been punished for my crimes. I have managed to hide my gambling by using secret bank accounts from my partner. The reality is we would have a lot more cash and a lot nicer things if I didn’t gamble. She is ignorant to my behaviour and I take advantage of that.
I am writing this because 5 days ago I made a decision I was done. I don’t want this life. When I look back at the last 10 years of my life I think what a waste. I have lost relationships probably over a hundred thousand dollars, lied, stoled, put on about 30 kgs and been miserable. Wasting time and wasting my life. I don’t want to do it anymore. I may not deserve better but the women I love does and I am committed to quitting to make sure I don’t lose her too. Im at that cross road now where if I stop I can hold onto a good life. If I keep going I lose everything and wind up wasting the rest of my life.
Wish me luck
submitted by Wetrapordie to REDDITORSINRECOVERY [link] [comments]

Effort And Knowledge Is The Best Way To Profitability At The Track!!

I believe that effort and knowledge of horse racing can lead to profits that will boggle most handicapper's mind. But concentrating on the right types of bets and when to take a shot is probably the most important factor. A lot of handicappers believe in taking a shot at big money and hope to get lucky because that is what it takes to hit a P3, P4, P5 or P6. Others who prefer to bet speed figures and favorites will have to settle for a few hundred a couple times a month, if they are good at handicapping. But serious handicappers who want to slow down later in life and maybe even semi-retire from the work force will be best serve learning the game of breeding and learn when to take a shot and what type of bet to use. The payoffs are there and has always been in my 40 years of handicapping.
I pretty much tried every angle you could possibly imagine but most lead down a road of futility. Yes, I tried the trainer's angle, the jockey's angle, the owner's angle, speed figures angle, up and down in class angles, last race win angle and numerous others. They all have their up and downs, like all angles, but that is because human thinking comes into play. One of the first angle I learned not to follow was the "expert" angle because their knowledge is no better than mine and they will tend to land on favorites to try to make a good impression, not to pick winners for others.
Those of you who follow my posts knows I will usually try to identify horses that are getting good odds and could have a good shot to win. I do this to identify which horse that I am willing to take a shot on to WP mostly. But on exactas, trifectas, and supers, it is important to at least think about adding more favorite types to the equation. These are the types of bets you can make a serious profit with and you do not have to wager a fortune to do so. But you will need to get an edge that most others do not believe in or even ever thought about trying. The edge I use is breeding.
I have mentioned the order of preference that I look over a racing form with. I start by scanning through every horses breeding, even the ones that look like they have poor form. This normally takes about five minutes and I do this to identify which horse(s) I want to concentrate on first when I start my serious handicapping. I then read the condition of the race, focusing mainly on the distance they are racing today. After reading the race conditions, I start eliminating horses that I feel their breeding suggest they would prefer another distance, either shorter or longer. Sometimes I am wrong and after the race, I will go back and look at the sire and broodmare sire to determine if I miss anything, for future reference. Once I have done this, it usually narrows my choices to 6-7 horses that I want to consider(12 horse fields).
I group the remaining horses in three groups: front running, slightly off the pace and late runners. I then try to determine which horse is in the best shape for this race and that does not necessary mean one that won or even ran in the money in his last. Every horse has form cycles where they peak and then not do as well, though they may still have won their last. Less than 5% of winners runs the exact same race twice in a row and that is obvious if you look at their race to race speed figures, which now supposely includes track variant. I look for horses that may have went wide in their last and lost all chance or one that looks like he got trapped on the rail and could not clear until it was too late.
Horses that has ran at least 5 times since his last three month break or rest period has a distinct advantage over a horse that is making his first start since a similar or longer break, especially if his trainer does not prepare him properly(either guess wrong to what the horse needs or simply does not know). A trainer is very important in the prepareness and conditioning of every horse and the trainers that realize this are the ones that win frequently.
Last. I go over the breeding of the last few horses I like and try to match their breeding to the distance and surface of the race. Most times, it will be one that fits better than the others. But when I find one that fits perfectly, I am usually cashing a WP ticket on that horse and will be set up for an exacta, trifecta or super where the big bucks are, if other horses I like the best also decides to try their best. It is hard but well worth the reward a majority of the time.
I am going to give you a couple of examples of how breeding works. I bet CD last Saturday and since they were having an all stakes P4 on their last four races, I put my emphasis on those four races, which turned out to be a mistake on my part. In the 4th race, I like a horse called Grade to win and I thought only one horse(Bravado) could beat him, so I boxed them in an exacta. It paid $141 on a $2 exacta. Bravado was a son of Awesome Again and his dam was a daughter of Cee's Tizzy, the sire of Tiznow. Grade was a son of Overanalyze and his broodmare sire was Grand Slam, a son of Mr Prospector son Gone West. Since Swiping Dan had ran 2nd in his first start and getting switched to a better jockey, I thought he was the one(and the crowd made him 2nd favorite) to include on my tri box, which I did. I was looking at Quality Rolls as another possible longshot to include in my super box but at the last minute decided not to bet the super(decided I was betting late P4 & P5 instead). My bets was looking very good until inside the 1/16 pole when Quality Rolls came flying out of the back of the pack and finished third, causing me a nice trifecta but because of my own reluctance, I let a $3800 super get by me. And that was not the bad one.
In the Pocahontas S(last race). both my P4 & P5 was useless. But my best pick of the day was Patrona Margarita, a grand daughter of Pulpit and broodmare sire was Naevus, a son of Mr Prospector, whose ML odds was 30-1. I like Upset Brewing and Sunny Skies the best for their class, though Kelly's Humor had beaten them both last out, though they finished up in a 14:50 for the last eighth of that stakes. But I could not leave out Primo Extremo, another daughter of Overanalyze, who I thought would be hard to run down based of 2 wins in 2 tries. I ended up boxing Patrona Margarita and Sunny Skies in my exacta, added Primo Extremo in my tri and box the super leaving Kelly's Humor off my ticket. And again it came back to bite me as Kelly's Landing came from mid pack late to nose out Sunny Skies, costing my an exacta, trifecta and super. Total payout on those three bets was over $19,000. My thought has always been to box but if I had keyed that race instead in that instance, it would have been a big benefit to me.
If I had paid more attention to these two races instead of trying to hit what I believe are gimmick bets, I probably would have came out much better than I did. Money management is an important key that you will do as a handicapper and can literally be the difference between making a little at the track or making a life changing sum. Or losing major sums.
For those of you who are non believers in breeding after their first few races, I encourage you to look up the horse Trade Storm. He raced in Dubai and owned by Darley Stables and tolled in their lowest level for 19 starts before being purchased by Qatar Racing (the second biggest owner in Dubai). He won one of their low level handicap in his 20th race and then won a G2 in his next start. The difference was Darley and his trainers was putting the horse near the lead and when Qatar Racing brought him, their trainer decided to get him to relax early and make one late run. He won later go on to run 3rd in the G1 Woodbine Turf Mile and returned the next year to win that same race before running 3rd in the 2014 G1 BC Turf Mile. His sire Trade Fair was a G3 winning sprint son of Zafonic, a G1 winning son of Gone West who won the English 2000 Guineas. His broodmare sire is Slip Anchor, a son of champion Shirley Heights and from the same broodmare sire line as Animal Kingdom, won the G1 Epsom Derby during his brief racing career. He always had the breeding but needed someone who would let him run his race instead of being forced to run a style that did not suit him. This is more common in racing all over the world than you could ever believe.
Another breeding reference that I would encourage you to look at is Ultimate Eagle. He is a son of Mizzen Mast who hails from the same line as Uncle Mo but three generations before. Mizzen Mast also had a more distance loving female family than did Uncle Mo. Ultimate Eagle's dam is Letithappencaptain who won minor stakes throughout her racing career on turf but she is a daughter of Captain Bodgit, who ran second in the G1 Ky Derby to Silver Charm as the favorite after winning the G1 Florida Derby and G1 Wood Memorial, beating Pulpit in his last two races. Ultimate Eagle began his career with three sprints on the all weather track at Hollywood Park and showed late interest though no threat to the winner in each. Sent to Del Mar and stretched out on turf for his fourth start, he was with the leader throughout tracking a fast pace and broke his maiden. Entered in an $80,000 OC in his next, he set a slow pace and wired the field, again at 1 1/16 mile turf. He was then entered in the G2 Oak Tree Derby at SA. Off at 34-1, he set a fast pace and when challenged in deep stretch, he found another gear to hang on to win at 1 1/8 mile turf. He beat a lot of top horses in this race. Entered next in the 2011 G1 Hollywood Derby at 1 1/4 miles and off at 14-1, he set a leisure pace for six furlongs and then kicked in to win while not seriously threaten. The horse that followed him all the way around was Imagining, a G1 winning son of Giant's Causeway, who did not have enough early speed to harm Ultimate Eagle. It was his fifth start before anyone finished ahead of Ultimate Eagle on turf and if you were savy enough to believe in breeding, you would had the opportunity to collect $177.60 for $16 of total bets for $2 WP on his four wins. This is a prime example of why I turn my focus to breeding and will do so for the rest of my betting days. Good Luck and have fun.
Edit: Ultimate Eagle's first crop of 2 YOs starts racing in 2018. He is a stallion that is siring in the state of California. He is a G1 winner on turf, but also won the G2 Strub S on conventional dirt. He has the bloodlines to throw speedy types who will carry their speed over a route, especially if allowed to dictate their own pace.
submitted by hodsct59 to horseracing [link] [comments]

Suggestions for changing betting mechanic on dinosaur racing: 5e Tomb of Annihilation

So the dinosaur racing mechanic looks awesome and I can't wait to see how my players react to it. Unfortunately, the books focuses on on only a single person betting. The way betting worked is each dinosaur has is given a odds in favor of winning (e.g. 7:1 or 2:1). Each odds of winning are assigned a dice, what rolls of that dice count as a win, and the payout. Once all bets are placed, each bet is resolved. However, I am unsure what to do if, for example, my players bet on different dinosaurs to win. Obviously, more then one dinosaur can't win, but as far as I can tell the book does not take this into account. The only work around I can think of is assigning each dinosaur a STR mod based on their odds of winning; the higher their chance the higher the mod. Then i would roll a d20 + STR mod for every racer and count that as how far they have moved. Repeat this till the first three dinosaurs cross the finish line. this is the only system I can think of that allows the higher odd dinosaurs a better chance of winning, while the lower odds still stand a chance. I am curious to know if anyone else has implemented a horse racing system before or has any recommendations for how to resolve this. Thanks!
submitted by Blame-Ben to DnD [link] [comments]

TR: A Low-Roller's 1st WINNING Las Vegas Trip

I finished all of the classes I need for my major a semester early, so I'm done with college. I'm working a full time job as a Special Education Assistant at a local elementary school, so I still get spring break, which naturally meant a Vegas trip. My friends’ reactions varied from “weren’t you just there?!?” to “how many times have you been there?” (5, not that I’m counting), to “of course you are.” (Un)fortunately all of my buddies from college had spring break a week before mine, so I had an excuse for a solo trip.
I really enjoy solo trips. I love the freedom that comes with them, and being able to call the shots however I want without having to worry about anyone else. I like meeting people, doing my own thing, and being able to follow my whims. That said, in a crazy turn of events, I was able to coordinate a meeting with a girl I’d matched with on Tinder (hereafter referred to as Cinderella). I matched with her a year ago during a layover at O’Hare on my way back from Japan, and we’ve talked off and on. Her spring break lined up with mine, and I jokingly invited her. She actually took e seriously, and by that point I couldn’t back out, so it was on. I flew out to the desert on Sunday and came back Thursday evening, whereas I got her to fly out Tuesday and leave Thursday morning, leaving me ample time for gambling on both ends.
I budgeted my usual $100 a day for gambling, for a $500 bankroll. I’ve been refining my money management system to ensure that I keep enough in the kitty to keep gambling and keep coming to Vegas. The gist of it is that I bring a fresh $100 bill with me each day, and keep whatever I have left at the end of the day for next time. I try to protect my winnings by cashing out my initial buy in if I double it, pocketing that for the next trip, and playing only the amount of my initial buy in, hopefully with many more pocketed chips. I really have to stick to this and a preset loss limit because I’m operating on a loss limit.
I booked a flight on Allegiant, direct from Colorado Springs for $76 one way. I was hoping the flight back would go down, but it never did, so I ended up paying $170 for the flight back. Not too bad considering I had three nights comped at the Golden Gate and I didn’t have to pay for a shuttle from DIA (I just gave my buddy some whiskey for the trouble of driving me).
I maxed out my comped room offer at the Golden Gate, booking for three nights from Sunday-Tuesday. I stayed at Harrah's Wednesday, since I like to take the strip in for one day (after I get the gambling out of my system), and also because I wanted to give Tinderella the full Vegas experience for her first time.
As per usual, I fit my grossly overpacked bag under the seat as a "personal item" in order to avoid paying the exorbitant bag fees. It's a point of pride for me to be able to stick it to the airlines and efficiently pack 4 days worth of things into a small grocery bag. In a related matter of principle, my signature shooters of rum made the trip to COS with me.
A friend and his partner picked me up from the airport and we went to Pho Kim Long. It was my first time eating Vietnamese, and I really enjoyed it. I sampled some pho, grilled chicken, milk tea, and an eggplant dish. It was all so good, and I was so starving, that I forgot to document any of it.
I checked into my room at the Golden Gate, and dropped my bags off. As per usual, the room was loud and I could hear people walking in the halls, and the shower has two temperatures: freezing or scorching. Oh well, free is free.
I went down to the players club to redeem my Allegiant match play (2 $25 chips if you show a confirmation number within 24 hours of landing). I was pleasantly surprised to see the same lady who helped me last time. She remembered me and said it was great to see me again and we chatted while she redeemed my offers. It felt pretty good to have someone remember me in Vegas, although it did make me feel slightly degenerate at the same time (not that that makes me feel bad; it’s a point of pride). In addition to my room, I also had $10 of free slot play and $15 of food credit at DuPar's. Who says gambling can't pay off?
SUNDAY
I went to Binion's to play some Bonus Poker, which was more like Boner Poker. I got boned for $60 without hitting anything particularly noteworthy. The scattered straights and flushes that I hit weren't enough to bring me positive, and I was chasing my losses the whole time. I got $5 free play and a $10 food credit for the cafe on my Motherlode spins.
Down to my last $40 for the day less than 30 minutes into the night, I was pretty frustrated. Since it was already late, I decided to play aggressive and try to turn it around. I went to the Golden Gate and bought into blackjack with all of my bankroll for the night a little after midnight.
I wasn't having much luck, even though everyone at the table besides me seemed to be winning. I was down to my last $25, so I went all in with my match play. I’m a (single) red chip player, so betting green is huge for me. At a quarter of my bankroll, and all that I have left, I’m freaking out. I can barely stand to look up, and I see an Ace. I try to stay calm and not get ahead of myself, and then the second card comes: Jack! I hit a blackjack for a sweet $75 payout that brought me right back to where I'd started for the day. I pocketed 2 greens and kept playing with the remaining $50. I worked up the courage to put down my second match play after steadily increasing my chip count and pocketing a couple more greens. On the second big matchplay hand, my 17 beat a dealer bust. I pocketed another $50 and kept playing.
At this point, my bankroll management strategy is really coming into play. I’m fairly steadily pocketing greens, (and $5 worth of 50¢ chips from blackjacks). I was tipping generously, betting a dollar for the dealer every few hands. It was a good table, with a fun lesbian couple (who played with horrible strategy, splitting 10s and staying on 14s, to name a few… luckily I don’t mind how others play, because in the long run it events out) and some nice guys who came in later.
I got a pair of aces, which I split only to get 2 more aces and learn that you aren't allowed to resplit aces. My 2 12s lost to a dealer 17 which was painful, but I can't complain too much after paying for my flight with the match play alone.
A new dealer came in after a while and all of my friends left, so I was playing heads up. I wasn't feeling it, so after I lost $25 I colored up and walked away with $250 at 4:30am. It was a huge relief to lock in half of my bankroll as a guaranteed return the first night, especially after being down so fast. I was so wired after playing for 4+ hours and increasing my buy in 8x that I couldn't sleep, so I called both of my parents before they went to work and texted my degenerate cousin the great news.
$100 in, $250 out (+$150) +$150 on the trip
MONDAY I slept until noon and took it easy after waking up. I went to Mermaid's for some quick drink service to start the day, and turned $5 into $20 on a vintage nickel WoF multireel. Unfortunately the luck didn't continue, and I donked it (and $60) off at Boner Poker. I hit a few full houses/flushes/straights, but it wasn't enough to get me above water. I hit four to a royal twice, but couldn’t finish it either time.
Had lunch at Binion's, using my $10 voucher to get pancakes, scrambled eggs, and wheat toast. At least I got something (a $100 brunch) out of all the Boner Poker losses.
I bought into $3 craps at the Fremont for $21. I've been cutting my teeth at $1 craps at the Wildwood Casino out in Colorado, so I was excited to give it a shot in Vegas. I lucked out and ran my $21 up to $50. I should've pressed harder since two shooters had rolls of 26 and 27, but at least I left with something.
I went to the D for some horses and cocktails. I bought in for $30 and was hammered by the end. I had enough wins to keep me there for a few hours, including a nice 105 payout on 4-5. I called it an early night and went to bed around midnight since I was so drunk and because I'd lost all my money.
$100 in, $0 out (-$100) +$50 on the trip
TUESDAY I woke up with a nice hangover from all of the Whiskey Cokes I'd drank at the Derby the previous night, so I did the only thing to do in that situation: mimosas and a greasy burger (after buying overpriced Advil at the ABC store). I went to Flippin' Good Burgers and got my usual, the Farm Burger. It's one of all time favorite burgers and I love getting it every time! I can't recommend them enough.
I donked off $40 on Boner Poker at Binion’s and some random slots, and blew $10 at 25¢ roulette at the El Cortez. I was chasing a 20 (not sure why, I just had a hunch... Maybe Nate is rubbing off on me) and didn't hit it, so I lost after treading water for a while. After losing all this before lunch, I decided to add a discretionary $20 more to my kitty for the day.
My tinderella got in about 2:30 in the afternoon, at which point I was playing craps. I made her wait until the roll was done to go meet her, like the true degenerate I am. She wasn't happy that I made her wait with all of her bags, but I can't say that I regret my choices. After she dropped her stuff off, we went to Binion’s where I used a $10 coupon to pay for my guilty pleasure of country fried steak and eggs. I picked up the rest of the tab with comp dollars, which was pretty satisfying for a low roller like me.
After lunch, Tinderella wanted to play blackjack, so naturally I obliged. Bought in for $30 at the GG and was able to run it up to $50. She was gambling with scared money (she bought in for $5…) and didn't really enjoy it, but that didn't stop me.
We headed to the Fremont for craps, but she didn't want to play. We can't all be degenerates. I bought in for $30 and played for a while and could tell she was getting bored. I told her (in between rolls of course) that she's welcome to leave any time, and she was gone before the next shooter sevened out. I stayed for a while, and with the help of a hot shooter was able to cash out for $100.
I went to GG for $25 worth of BJ before bed, content that I'd locked in $100 on the day. I played for a good 2 hours on my $25 buy in before losing it, so I was happy. I had a massive hand where I split 2s, resplit, and doubled a 9 against a dealer 4. This took all of my money on the table, so the guy next to me (who was so drunk off of two Coronas that he couldn't add up his cards or figure out what his total was with aces) spotted me $5. Luckily I won, and had a massive $40 payout, and gave him his red back as well as betting a dealer tip for him. I was tipping the dealer very generously, and helped her color up her tokes to a a green.
Finally content with the gambling, I went up to the room to find Tinderella asleep. When she woke up she said "you weren't kidding about being a degenerate gambler." I can't say I didn't give her fair warning, so I didn't feel too bad. We had a good time and went to bed.
$120 in, $100 out (-$20) +$30 on the trip
WEDNESDAY While I was packing, I ripped my Bucee’s cooler bag, so I had to buy a souvenir Las Vegas bag. Started the day off with breakfast at DuPar’s so I could use my $15 voucher. I got a bacon avocado omelette with jack cheese and a blueberry muffin. It was delicious, as were the pancakes that I stole a bite of. Played a little blackjack and I ran $30 up to $50.
I had a Groupon at Banger Brewing, so we headed there next. $19 for a flight of 4 beers, two half-pint pours, and a one liter growler to go was a steal. I wasn’t a huge fan of the El Heffe (Jalapeño and pepper beer, although it was exactly as described). I loved the Morning Joe (coffee kolsch) however, and took my pour and growler of that. It tasted just like a frappucino without being overly sweet, and was a very unique taste.
We checked out of the Golden Gate and took the Deuce to the Strip. A guy struck up conversation with me, and we talked the whole way about solar energy. Before I got off, we exchanged numbers and he told me that, as far as he was concerned, I'd "aced the interview" and he'd "call within the month with a job offer for me" that will "pay 6 figures." I'm obviously skeptical, but it made for an entertaining ride and it was a nice confidence boost to know that I can ace an interview hammered.
Once we got to the Strip we watched the Bellagio fountains and then went to Harrah’s to check in. I paid the extra $7 to upgrade to a strip view, and the jury’s still out on if it was worth it. The room was surprisingly nice, especially after the comped nights at the Golden Gate.
We got a half hour in at the pool before it closed (which was long enough for my fair skin to get sunburned, don’t worry), freshened up, and walked to Ra for dinner.
We got lost in the mall looking for it, but we finally found it and it was delicious! Tinderella insisted on paying for dinner, and I gladly took her up on it. The sushi was incredible! The specialty rolls on happy hour were a delight, and the Viva Las Vegas roll was my favorite.
By the time we finished dinner, it was dark out and surprisingly chilly with the wind. We stopped at H&M where I found a sweater that was 50% off the clearance price, effectively making a $28 sweater $6.49. My frugality thoroughly satisfied, we walked back to the Linq Promenade for some cupcakes and Happy Half Hour on the High Roller.
I bought a cinnamon cupcake from the Cupcake ATM. It saved the wait of standing in line, and it was a pretty cool experience. The frosting was delectable, but the cupcake itself was a little dry and left something to be desired.
We redeemed a Living Social deal for the High Roller (thanks Tinderella), and were in the car within 5 minutes. As we know by now, I’m a value hunter, and even though I didn’t pay for the ride, I wasn’t going to leave any money on the table. I went in with a goal: 10+ drinks in 30 minutes. I started strong with some Jack and Cokes, and was 3 deep by the time we were a quarter of the way up. I switched to a Jack and club for a palette cleanser, and then downed two more Jack and Cokes by the time we reached the top. Once we got to the top, the car did a shot together which put me at 7. I eased up a bit, nursing another Jack and Coke on the way down (8). When we neared the bottom, I switched to a Bud Light (9). I hid it on the rail and ordered another one (10) for last call, and when the bartender told us that we could only bring one drink off, I took a big gulp and stealthily snuck one in my pocket. I made it off, and felt so accomplished!
With my buzz coming on strong, it was time for some gambling. I walked all the way to Hooter’s to sign up for the card and get $15 of match play and $10 free play. I won $12.50 on Boner Poker, which I then lost (plus another $50) on $3 blackjack. The game was so painful I don’t know why I stayed. Past a point, it was like schadenfreude. I kept buying in thinking it would turn around, only to get beat by one or two. The final hand, on which I bet $10, I got a 20 vs a dealer 3. I breathe a sigh of relief, which is intensified when the dealer flips a 10. Guess what comes next: an 8, for a dealer 21. I had a hard time shaking the loss off, not because I lost $50 (I do that all the time), but because it was at Hooter’s. Anywhere else I wouldn’t have minded, but it just felt so dirty.
Tinderella had a flight at 5am, so I stayed up with her and walked her down to the cab, and then crashed.
$100 in, $0 out (-$100) -$70 on the trip
THURSDAY I woke up at 7:45 to pee and felt like absolute death, so I was dreading my 9:15 alarm. I went back to sleep, and miraculously felt fine when I woke up, even beating the alarm by 2 minutes! My stomach didn't feel too great, but after a shower and granola bar I was good to go. I felt like a professional tetris player as I packed my personal item, which had now expanded to include my newly purchased sweater.
I checked out and cracked open the Banger growler that I'd put on ice the night before. I can't say that a liter of beer was what my body wanted after a night of heavy drinking, but I'm a man of principle and I refuse to waste beer, so I did what I needed to do. I cracked my Morning Joe open and started walking North on the Strip. A coffee kolsch was close enough to breakfast for me.
I got on the Deuce with a good buzz going, and walked to Binion's. I played Boner Poker one last time and was up $10 for the first time all trip, but it quickly went back down to $20, at which point I cashed out and called it even. Having earned 5 points, I spun the wheel and got $5 of free play, which I donated back to Boner Poker.
I decided to hit craps hard at the Fremont, buying in for $30. I ran it up to $60 in short order, but then lost it after pressing aggressively. I bought in for $25 more. I was up and down, but finally down to my last $2. I threw it on C and E and was ready to walk away when a 3 hit. The bet stayed on for the next roll (at which point I was tempted to take it off, but I didn’t), and what comes out but a yo? I parlayed my winnings into some place bets and come bets with odds, and ran it up to $81. I colored up and was going to walk with $80, but I decided to throw one more dollar yo on my way out. Guess what hits... another 11! I walked out with $95.
My flight home left at 5:47 and it was already 2pm. On the way to GG for my last blackjack buy in of the trip, I walked across the street from the Fremont to do the free spin at 4Queens. I watched in awe as 3 clubs lined up and the 4Queens hit the payline! I got $25 of free play.
I decided to press up to 50¢ 9/6 Jacks or Better in the hopes of hitting something decent, or at the very least extracting some of the cash value. Instead, I hit literally nothing in all 10 spins, cementing that it was not to be a VP trip. I was gonna try $5 more of quarters, but the bill got stuck. After an attendant came over and I got it back, I tried again only to get the same error. I took it as a sign and left to the Golden Gate.
I bought in for $50 at a table with some fellow Midwesterners (from Wisconsin). I played aggressive since I only had 30 minutes until I should leave for my flight, and I was able to color up to a black. I played my remaining $25 down and walked with $100.
Because I'd gambled so late, I missed the WAX and had to take a Lyft to McCarran. It was $30 and I had perfect timing; by the time I got through security, boarding had begun but I didn't have to rush. No stress of missing the flight, and no wasted time not gambling... Well worth the $30.
The flight was hotter than the 7th circle of hell, and ironically the warmest I was the whole trip since it was so windy every day. The air was a sweet relief, as was the water I'd filled my growler with. Uneventful flight, minus my failed attempt to eat a melted chocolate bar. I typed up the bulk of this TR and basked in the glory of my first winning trip, and tried to ignore the two-part hangover already setting in. The Vegas hangover is hard enough, so it sure didn't help to feel the Long Islands wearing off...
$100 in, $190 out (+$90) +$20 on the trip
TOTAL: $520 in, $540 out +$20 on the trip
I had an awesome trip, and am very happy to have my first WINNING TRIP even if it was only $20! I got a lot of value out of it, and think that four nights was the perfect duration for Spring Break. I got some good gambling and drinking in, but I’m definitely ready to be home and go back to healthy eating and working out. I don’t have the next trip planned, but I’m hoping to come out later in the summer, perhaps for a shorter duration so I could have a higher daily bankroll.
I hope you enjoyed reading my TR! Thanks for taking the time to read through my low-roller account!
submitted by sergi0wned to gambling [link] [comments]

Rebel Stakes @ OP, Saturday, Mar 19

tl;dr RESULTS 4-10-1-11 - Race recap at bottom of post
More Derby point on the line and another analysis to accept, reject, or use for your Friday afternoon entertainment....
14 horse field for the Rebel. Pretty sizable considering there were 7 last year and 8 the year before. Track record is 1:40.20 set in 1984. American Pharoah won it last year in 1:45.78 and Hoppertunity the year before in 1:43.90
Sunny skies and a high of 58 is good racing weather; expect the track to be fast.
According to the PP, Late speed has been favorable for the week and the rail has a slight advantage over the outside posts. Meet statistics show early speed and the rail have an advantage. This is interesting since this plays to the strengths of the contenders...
The field:
1) Creator - 440k Purchase @ Keenland September sales and 300K sire fee for Tapit. Ricardo Santana rides (23% win rate) and Asmussen (22%) trains. This horse has a serious case of second-itis but finally won it's last out. Notably, he won at OP, at 1 1/16, while 4 wide at the quarter pole, and won by 7 after being 11th in the 1st turn, 8th in the 2nd turn and first into the straight. Dead late closer? Pretty close. Those are the pros... the cons? Last out was maiden win. Speed wasn't the fastest. But looking at the PP, he gets bumped, shuffled back, goes 4 wide, and still finds himself in the money. Nice to think he'd be in the money here... Depends on how the others run their race. His 1:45.20 is faster than Pharoah's win. Something to consider....
1A) Madtap - $300K out of Tapit. Corey Nakatani rides (21%), Asmussen (22%) trains. Won his maiden at 1 mile on the turf and took 5 more races before he won again (last out) at OP, on the dirt. Also, he was 3 wide, led from the beginning, set fractions of .23, .46, 1:12, final of 1:43.4 and won by 6. That's faster than Hoppertunity 2 years back. How he gets a speed rating of 88 while creator gets 93 is beyond me. Maybe the dirt was extra hard that day? Anyway, a repeat performance and he takes the win unless someone else is showing faster. Rail, speed, held it to the end? Good stuff... Can he repeat? I'd like to think so...
2) ZRoyal - R VAzquez & D. Wayne Lukas team up for this 3 yo from Zayat Stables. Won its maiden 3 back and nothing since. Decent workouts but nothing to show for it. Led in the LeComte G3 but faded in the end. Showed nothing in the Southwest G3 last out. Maybe sets the pace, but I'll leave this one out.
2X) Gray Sky - 700K Keenland Sept purchase; 300K out of Tapit. Another Lukas trainee with Florent Geroux in the saddle. Took 5 tries to win maiden. Finished 2nd last out in 70K Alw at OP in 1:45.5 after setting the pace with fractions of .23, .47, 1:12 but got caught at the end. I'm sure expectations are high, but not seeing the sustained speed for 1 1/16
3) Ralis - First start since October in the BC Juvenile G1. Havent we learned our lessons with these "haven't raced in 5 months?". Did win the Hopeful G1 @ Saratoga last September, but that's it. That race was 7F. Hasn't shown much in routes. Workouts are nothing noteworthy and no recent performances. Can he be better than a bunch of allowance horses? Maybe. Then again, Awesome banner was great at 7F but not at 8+.... For this race, I think there's too many doubts. I'm not placing a bet on wishful thinking.
4) Cupid - 900K Keenland;300K tapit; Baffert; Martin Garcia. Damn. Those are some nice connections. Baffert has won the Rebel 5 out of the last 6 times. Lukas won the other. Cupid won last out at SA @ 1 1/16 in 1:43.3 for the Maiden (5 lengths). Bullet work on Mar 11 @ SA. Can he win 2 in a row coming off the maiden? 31% shipper, 97 speed rating last out too. A repeat of the last win and Cupid is bringing love to the Baffert stables.
5) Discreetness - 105K OBS Mar; $7.5k Discreet Cat. 4 wins in 7 starts. Trainer is 28% Jon Court rides. 7th last out in the Southwest G3. Couldn't close into a decent pace. The top 3 from that race are back in the Rebel. Let's see, 8 wide last out, 4 wide the time before, 5 wide before that, 3 wide before that, 4w before that and that.... jeez! I think he's a good horse, but lacks the tactical speed to put him in contention unless against inferior rivals. I'll pass.
6) Siding Spring - 110K Keenland Sept; Mark Casse trains, Joe Rocco rides. Won maiden on turf 4 back. Nothing since then. 3rd on turf at KEE in Bourbon, G3. 10th in BC Juvenile G1, 5th in Southwest G3. Set the pace early in Southwest but got gobble up by the top 3... all of those back in this race.... May improve in 2nd race from layoff ? Maybe, but I don't see it. Pass.
7) Spikes Shirl - 100K out of Speighstown. Won maiden 2nd out at 7f. 2nd in last 2 starts but times are disappointing. Workouts are meh but OK at FG. Just not seeing how this horse will be competitive.
8) American Dubai - 35K KEESEPT. Won maiden at 6f @ CD. 2nd in OC62K @ OP 1 1/16 in 1:45. 3rd in Southwest G3 in 1.45. Plenty of bullet works. Dueled for the lead down the straight in Southwest, gave way at the wire. Contender, but I wonder if 1 1/16 is a shade too long. Horse likes the pace, but giving way at the end doesn't make a winner. Exotics.
9) Cutacorner - Beat American Dubai 2 back in OC62K at 1 1/16. Had nothing last out in Southwest G3. Many sharp/bullet works but seems to finish behind many others in this race and hasn't been consistent. Maybe a 4th place for a pricy exotic, but not the winner.
10) Whitmore - Irad Ortiz is on hand for this race. Horse ran 2nd to Suddenbreakingenews last out in the Southwest G3 @ OP. Was 4-5 wide, closed from 11th to 2nd. Bullet work @ OP. I think this horse should be included in your trifecta/superfecta.. But I think there's some other competition to consider.
11) Cherry Wine - Dale Romans/Corey Lanerie. Won last out at GP @ 1 1/16 in 1:44. Closed from 6 back going into the stretch to win by 6 handily. Won 1 1/16 in the slop at CD in 1:46.4 by 9 in maiden win. sharp workouts at GP. only a 12% shipper though. Horse looks like he's been improving. If he continues to improve, no reason to look elsewhere for your winner. Speed rating of 90/89 tosses some water on the enthusiasm though. But a 1:44 at 1 1/16 is better than most in this race.
12) Suddenbreakingnews - 72K KEESEP, 25K Mineshaft. 6 starts, 3 wins, 3 seconds: 2 by a nose and 1 by DQ. Won last out in Southwest G3 by going from 14th to first. 5th in the straight, 1st at the wire. From 6th to 2nd before that, and before that, 5th to 2nd before that, set the pace and dualed for the win and won maiden going from 11th to first on the turf. Deadlate closer indeed. Solid workouts.
So, we have speed near the rail with Madtap who ran the fastest 1 1/16 @ OP in 1:43. We'll probably see Cupid and American Dubai sitting off the pace waiting to pounce in the stretch.
Whitmore, Cherry Wine, and, Suddenbreakingnews will all wait until coming out of the last turn (just like California Chrome) to hit the jets and swallow up the field.
Now, I like looking for value plays... What fun is it to bet the favorite? At 3-1, Sudden is not a walkaway favorite. So there's some value to be had here. What about Cutacorner? The 1:45 win @ OP is nothing to sneeze at. Horse seems to be a pattern runner: win, lose, win, lose... he's due for a win here. With the bigger field, maybe he gets in the money at 30-1
Cherry Wine won two in a row at GP. Maybe that translates well at OP? I wish there would have been one workout while there, but its a big unknown.
With 2 coupled entries, I wouldn't be surprised to see Z Royal sent off as a rabbit for the field to chase which Siding Spring would go with as well. Or he pressures Madtap by putting him a dueling situation from the start which would wear him down... Which only sets it up for a 10,11,12 finish anyway.
So, Suddenbreakingnews (12) has had good fortune at RP and did win the G3 at OP. So I consider him in the money. Cherry Wine (11) did win at CD and GP. He's in good form. Remains to be seen what he does at OP. Whitmore (10) follows Suddenbreakingnews. If Irad takes the lead or sits off the pace, not sure the horse will run his race. Cutacorner (9) Long shot play but did get 92 speed rating just 2 back @ OP. Continues to have bullet works. I think 30-1 is a gift. I'll use him in an exotic. American Dubai (8) toss up along with the others that ran 1 1/16 in 1:45 Cupid (4) Gotta have Baffert in this somehow. A repeat performance from the last, and he's the winner. Reminds me of last week's win by Danzing Candy in the San Felipe. Good payout if he wins. Would be worth a small wager for the win. Madtap (1A)... I like him... I can only hope for a repeat.
Whats the fun in better the top 2 favorites? Although, 3-1 & 7-2 should pay ok for an exacta.
How about these "throw your money out the window bets": .10 Super - 12/1/9/4 Exacta 1/4 box Tri - 1,4/1,4/12,9
RESULTS 4-10-1-11
Recap: Cupid wins wire to wire. Whitmore caught him in the stretch then Cupid continued to run while Whitmore ran out of steam. Creator, Cherry Wine, and Suddenbreaking news ALL came from last to try and catch in the deep stretch.... but they finished 3rd, 4th, and 5th. Did we just witness the Kentucky Derby winner? Although possible, it's too early to tell. Still lots of racing before May rolls around. This year isn't as clear cut as American Pharoah and California Chrome were the last 2 years.
The Good: Cupid ran his race the same way Danzing Candy ran his last week. Not all horses are capable of winning their maiden then winning a graded stakes race. I think most of us saw the potential but it was hard to make the definitive call. This was a tough race and the bets were really spread out... which makes sense considering each horse had a reason to be a contender even if the odds said otherwise. In the end, the lowest odd runners finished in the top 4 which made for some nice payouts.
Cherry Wine had morning line odds of 20-1 and went off at 7-1. I think most of us saw the value as did a lot of other people. Good to know we can identify value.
Ralis, Discreetness, and others.... Although a case was made for some of the long shots, there guys were totally left off our lists. Sometimes its not about picking winners, but rather, throwing out the losers.
The dead late closers did exactly that... With class relief, I think it's worth watching these horses. They could very well win their next time out against allowance or non-graded stakes.... BUT! Dead late closers can do VERY well in the Kentucky Derby. There are so many horses in the race, and its the first time many of them are running 1 1/8. The front runners get tired and fade... the dead late closers are still running strong at the end. It's worth keeping on eye on this angle because this will help get the payoff in the Derby.
The Bad: How did I relegate Whitmore to a tri or super and not the exacta? grrrr... that threw off everything. Congrats to those that liked him and used him. Should have given him more consideration since Irad came in for the race. Jockeys don't travel unless they believe they'll win.
Suddenbreaking news finishes 5th?! Creator and not Madtap finishes in the money?
The Ugly: All in all, the original review (above) was pretty accurate but it didn't translate into winning bets. This is what's frustrating. Maybe a lessens learned will lead to improving analysis into winning bets.
submitted by sqerl to horseracing [link] [comments]

[CONTEST] Picking WInners

Feelin' lucky punk?
Well with this contest, if you're going to win, you'll answer that with a definitive 'Yes.' This isn't going to be an easy contest. With a little determination though you'll have taken the reigns and steered yourself to the positive leaving little behind to fate. Uh, What?
I want to know who the best handicapper on /Cigars is.
I'm going to pick out 5-6 main races over the weekend of October 12th, plus an additional 2 bonus races this coming weekend and you'll get to pick one race of your own (if turnout is good and people are up for it, the contest will run the duration of October with races picked out each weekend except for this one, it'll be the same two, let me hear what you think). You'll make one selection per race. The horse you pick will have an automatic "$10 win bet" placed on it. The winner will have the highest payout of everyone playing. Anyone who plays the initial two races this weekend will have a small bonus consideration in the event of a tie (and solid preparation/races to review for next weekend).
If you've never handicapped a race before nor do you plan to, that's okay, guess away. The public picks the winner correctly 33% of the time. It usually doesn't pay that well but they're right. I recommend you start here though. The fundamentals of handicapping are based around class, form, speed, and pace. A good tool to figure these out for a horse are its past performances. There's a plethora online but if you're feeling ambitious(or I've piqued your interest) this isn't a bad list of reading material.
Personally those websites aren't bad but you really only need to poke around on www.DRF.com. That's the go to place. Read the articles I've provided and then stick to DRF, that's my recommendation. Also you are going to see past performances cost money, Do Not Buy Any!! I will be providing all the past performances for all the chosen races (if you live near a track there might be paper copies of the DRF around town; it's an expensive paper and you need to buy it for the day of the races you are playing and it's only available the night before at the earliest.)
Okay, so that's the background. Now back to the contest. It's simple really. Whoever has the highest payout after all the races are finished will be our winner (if we run it through the month it's the same premise). There will also be a runner-up for second best and a winner for single highest payout on a horse. The odds will be the final odds of the racetrack the horse is running on. I'll check the results and adjust the payout for a $10 win bet and that will be your payout. Your accumulated payout will be your final total and determine your placing. In the event of a tie I'll consider if any of the initial two races were played, if the person won, then I'll look to single highest payout among the tied competitors. Worst case we'll split a prize (or double one, we'll figure it out).
You can leave your selections in a comment below for each race. If you play the initial two this weekend clearly distinguish the races with the date. I will post the initial two races tonight. They will be from Belmont Park and they will be graded stakes races run this coming Saturday.
The races for the following weekend of the twelfth will be posted shortly as well. You won't be able to handicap them till next week though. Use the time to brush up on the basics and give it your best shot.
As for prizes...
I'm going to put together a bunch of cigars. Obviously our high roller will be receiving some high rolling cigars, 5-10 clubhouse /graded stakes class(super premium) sticks. The runner up is looking at closer to 5 grandstand/claiming level (less premium) sticks and the single highest payout on a horse will get 2. And a hug.
The winner, if he/she pleases will also get to place 5 $10 live win wagers through me on races of their choice. I'll put the wagers in for them, on the races they want, and forward any positive outcomes. So the winner is also receiving a $50 gambling gift card (essentially). The runner up will get one $10 wager. Maybe if we are in hangout or around for the days/races we can all watch in giddy anticipation of the outcome. I'll certainly post if this turn into a well paying contest.
If anything was left out on here, I probably have thought of it and just forgot to write it. Let me know if there are any questions. If there is interest beyond these two weekends we can consider extending it through the month of October as a sorta "fantasy handicapping" thing on the weekends.
If you want to play but don't want to handicap, that's fine don't shy away and feel free to guess. I'll be posting some limited info on the races, enough to make a guess from. If you want to take it more seriously, feel free, that's why I provided some links.
It's all in good fun, so try to enjoy yourself, that's what this is about. I thought this was neat since racing and smoking go together at times. A good cigar at the track, ;), hmm!
Have Fun and Good Luck!
edit: shout out to /horseracing.
open to everyone with a plus. I'm going to check with the mods about earning your plus through the contest by submitting a cigar ("wagering" it) to the prize pool or something.
guys do to the lack of response we are passing on this weekend, if it gets a few more before next wed we'll still be a go for the weekend of the twelfth.
This will be open to everyone as well, U.S.. If you want to participate internationally that's fine if you are willing to cover shipping costs in the even you win.
edit2: If anyone wants to, do two out of the three stakes at Belmont Today. Since someone asked, that's what I was planning but I wasn't going t, due to lack of response. Since a few of you are interested I figured I'd throw it out there.
8,9, or 10th at Belmont Today, Pick 2 races out of the three. (I Don't expect anyone to do it under such short notice)
Looks like we didn't get a good turnout. I don't think I'm going to scrap it altogether since I wrote all this out but for the couple of you who are interested I'll throw out a few races for saturday but all for fun. Due to the low turnout it isn't really a competition among three people. Do not think I'm doing this because I don't want to send sticks out, it just isn't much of a competition without competitors plus it's too easy to end up chalky and miss the bigger payouts with so few people.
Or if we want we could handicap the pick4 together ono saturday at belmont or SA. Or Handicap the card together and see if we can make some money together. I'm going to be playing Belmont Saturday anyway.
The races I'm thinking are:
All times listed are Eastern
Belmont Race 2 Claiming 15k 1:22 Keeneland Race 4 Claiming 50k 2:41 Keeneland Race 6 Allowance N2X 3:45 Belmont Race 7 Knickerbocker Stakes 4:02 Belmont Race 8 Allowance OC 4:34 Belmont Race 9 Athenia Stakes 5:06 Keeneland Race 9 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup G1 5:21 Santa Anita Race 7 California Distaf Stakes (Cal Bred) 7:07 (estimated)
Might as well do the 10th at Belmont too (5:38) to complete the 300k Guaranteed Pick 4.
Do whatever you can, I know it's a lot. I guess concentrate on what will give you the biggest scores. I'm mostly going ot be handicapping Belmont, that's where I play and where I've been making my living lately. I do play the other tracks at times though. Santa Anita also has a guaranteed pick 4 as well, I'm not sure if keeneland does.
Good luck. Since we aren't taking this as seriously as before if you want to post you picks beforehand and maybe we can talk about the positives and negatives, I'm certainly up for that.
submitted by DCromo to cigars [link] [comments]

New to Online Poker, want to try bovada, should I take the welcome bonus?

As the title says I'm new to online poker and haven't ever made a cash deposit on a site, only played freerolls. The question I have is whether or not to take the welcome bonus which is described as: 50% Welcome Bonus
To receive your Welcome Bonus, make a deposit and instantly receive a 50% bonus up to $250.
Once your deposit is processed, your bonus will be available for wagering within 30 minutes.
This bonus can only be redeemed on your FIRST DEPOSIT. Bonus is only be eligible for use in Sports, Horses, and Casino. It is not available for use in Poker. You may use your bonus on any sport, wager type and odds. Rollover is 5X Sports/5X Horses/30X Casino on both the initial deposit and the bonus amount.*Rolled Over means that your total online sports betting action must meet the amount deposited, including the bonus. If a withdrawal is made before the bonus terms are met, all bonus funds AS WELL as any money earned by wagering the bonus will be forfeited. If you redeem the bonus and lose with it, the bonus amount will still be deducted before requesting a payout unless the rollover requirements have been met.
Does this mean for example if I deposit $10 and receive a $5 bonus that I will have to play 30x $5 worth of entries before i'm eligible to withdrawl? Anyone who can help explain this would greatly appreciated, thanks!
submitted by sleightofblade to poker [link] [comments]

The winning odds for those bets is 32.43% in European Roulette, and 31.58% in the American version. Consecutively, this bet will bring you more winnings – the payout for Column and Dozen is 2:1. Odds & Payouts for Inside Bets. Inside bets include betting on a single number, or on a small group of them. Payouts on a winning Pick 3 bet can range from double digits to $100 or more. If the series of races is won by a progression of long shots, the payoff can occasionally approach $1,000. Not bad for a $1 bet. 9 – Across the Board. Betting Across the Board involves betting a single unit on a horse to win, place, and show. On the board – Finishing among the first three.. On the nose – Betting a horse to win only.. Overlay – A horse whose odds are greater than its potential to win. Professional bettors target overlays, meaning they target bets that offer better than fair value odds. Underlay – A horse whose odds are less than than his potential to win. Betting horses whose odds are worse than fair value Since most tracks have a $2 minimum bet, below is a handy chart to look up the payoff for a $2 bet at various odds. Remember, your actual payoff may differ from this chart, as the odds on the tote board are rounded off, so 2-1 odds on the tote board may actually be 1.9-1 or 2.2-1. Despite its lower-limit betting, you’ll need to come up with at least $45 to get things rolling and accumulate $100 to request a payout. Bitcoin is exempt from the cashout rule, though. Bitcoin, Bitcoin Lite, and Bitcoin Cash are each accepted, and I recommend using one of them to avoid the $100 minimum withdrawal and any check fees.

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