Money Line Definition - What Does Money Line Mean?
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- What Is A Moneyline Bet? | How To Bet The Moneyline
Divisional Weekend Matchup Guide (Part 1)
submitted by Roto_G to fantasyfootball [link] [comments]
Part 1 of 2
GLOSSARY DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average):
calculates a team's success based on the down-and-distance of each play during the season, then calculates how much more or less successful each team is compared to the league average. DVOA Pass/Run Defense Rank:
Team’s NFL rank in DVOA pass or run defense so far this season. #1 means best DEF against the pass/run, #32 means worst DEF against the pass/run. Weighted DEFENSE:
is adjusted so that earlier games in the season become gradually less important. It better reflects how the team was playing at the end of the season. ATS
= Against the spread DVOA from https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef/2019
What’s up fellow fantasy football connoisseurs, hope everyone had a great holiday and New Year. We are going to continue to publish our matchup guide through the playoffs for those that play DFS or fantasy playoff leagues. We will give estimated valuations of players, as well as game flow projections and possible implications of injuries or trends on those involved. Best of luck to all!
DFAroto Playoff Record for Predictions Moneyline: 2/4 ATS: 3/4
Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49ers (-7) Vikings ATS:
10-7-0 49ers ATS:
9-6-1 Projected Point Totals:
Vikings 18.75 49ers 25.75
Vikings Opp (SF) Pass DVOA:
#2 Opp (SF) Run DVOA:
#11 Opp (SF) Weighted DEF:
#4 Injuries to Watch DEF (SF):
DE Dee Ford (P) DE Kentavius Street (P) Injuries to Watch OFF (MIN):
WR Adam Thielen (Q) Key WCB matchups:
None Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks Reg Season):
Stefon Diggs (23%) Adam Thielen (12%) Dalvin Cook (10%) Kyle Rudolph (10%) Irv Smith (10%) RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Wild Card Round:
Dalvin Cook (78%, 31, 5) Alexander Mattison (18%, 6, 2) Ameer Abdullah (4%, 1, 0) QB/WTE Breakdown
How you like me now?! Kirk Cousins (downgrade)
got the first big win of his career last week in a shocking upset of the Saints in The Big Easy. On tap is another beastly defense; San Francisco ranks second in Pass DVOA, while also producing the 11th best Run DVOA. Needless to say, it projects as tough sledding for the entire Vikings offense. Mike Zimmer’s game plan will flow through the run game again, capping Cousins upside in the box score. He again projects as a fade for DFS, especially considering the other signal callers available on the slate. The matchup isn’t a good one - SF cedes just 15 FPPG to opposing QBs and just 19.1 to opposing WRs - Plus, the 49ers defense will be bolstered by the return of LB Kwon Alexander and SS Jaquiski Tart. DT Dee Ford was also expected to return, but his status is now a bit murkier as we head into the weekend. All of this is to say, it’s probably best to go a different route at QB. Stefon Diggs (slight downgrade)
busted last week, but if you read our Wild Card article it was to be expected. San Francisco has been second best in the NFL for limiting explosive pass plays (20+ yards), giving them up on just 6% of plays (sharpfootballstats). Considering Diggs role in the Vikings offense as the main downfield threat, he again faces an uphill battle to DFS success. If not for the midweek injury to fellow wideout Adam Theilen (Q)
, Diggs would be receiving a full downgrade. If Theilen is in anyway limited, however, Diggs could see a volume upgrade that would keep him active in the WR2 conversation. Plus, he’s always just one deep ball away from hitting value. Either way, Diggs is no more than a contrarian play in a tough matchup - according to PFF his matchup disadvantage is set at -5%, he’s expected to see primary coverage from Ahkello Witherspoon (PFF’s No. 72 CB). While that matchup isn’t exactly imposing, considering the 49ers also field the No. 1 ranked CB (Richard Sherman), and the No. 9 (K’Waun Williams); it’s going to be tough for Diggs. The midweek injury to Theilen
renders him no more than a dart throw due to volume and playing time concerns. Proceed at your own risk, but again he’s the preferred play to Diggs
if active and not limited. Kyle Rudolph
hauled in the game winner last week, but outside of that barely managed to produce. He and Irv Smith
are no more than touchdown dependent tight end options. The edge again goes to Rudolph due to his nose for the endzone. RB Breakdown Dalvin Cook (volume upgrade)
handled an amazing 31 touches in the Wild Card Round, parlaying them into 94 yards on the ground with two touchdowns, also adding a 3-36-0 receiving line. San Francisco has been a bit weaker against the run than the pass, so Cook can again be considered a volume based RB1 with a great chance at finding the endzone. His monster volume should alleviate any concerns of the tough matchup - SF cedes just 12.2 FPPG to opposing RBs, giving up an average of 112.6 yards per game on the ground - still, Cook can’t be counted out, and may be under-owned due to the expected negative game-script. Remember, this offense flows through Cook.
49ers Opp (MIN) Pass DVOA (Regular Season):
#7 Opp (MIN) Run DVOA (Regular Season):
#9 Opp (MIN) Weighted DEF:
#6 Injuries to Watch DEF (MIN):
S Jayron Kearse (D) CB Mackensie Alexander (OUT) Injuries to Watch OFF (SF):
G Mike Person (P) Key WCB matchups:
None Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks Reg Season):
George Kittle (31%) Emmanuel Sanders (19%) Deebo Samuel (18%) Kendrick Bourne (9%) Raheem Mostert (8%) RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 17:
Raheem Mostert (54%, 11, 2) Tevin Coleman (30%, 6, 2) Matt Breida (16%, 4, 1) QB/WTE Breakdown
The 49ers head into Saturday as 7 point home favorites. This is in large part due to their success on defense in 2019, but also because Jimmy Garoppolo (slight downgrade)
has proven to be a massive success. The guy is sporting a perfect QBR when throwing the ball 20+ yards between the numbers (Next Gen Stats), plus, he’s been pretty damn good throwing to every other place on the field as well. The Vikings have been very good against imposing signal callers - limiting QBs to just 14.2 FPPG and WRs to 22.4 FPPG - plus, they held Drew Brees to just 208 yards passing in the Wild Card Round. Another thing to consider, Jimmy G is making his first career playoff start, and historical trends show us that quarterbacks generally struggle. Since 2010, teams are 9-17 when starting a first-time quarterback in the playoffs (washingtonpost.com). Still, it feels different with Jimmy G. However, considering that the Vikings were able to get pressure against the Saints, who have a better ranked offensive line according to PFF than the 49ers, and that San Francisco is a run first team, Jimmy G should likely be faded this weekend. Deebo Samuel (slight upgrade)
and Emmanuel Sanders
are the only wideouts in this offense with over 10% of the target share, making them the only ones worth considering. Sanders has taken on the role as field stretcher with an aDOT of 12.6 yards, while Samuel has thrived as an underneath play maker with an aDOT of 6.5 yards, while also churning out 201 YAC this year. The Vikings corners are a bit banged up, plus were never an imposing matchup anyway - Trae Waynes (PFF’s No. 27 CB), Mike Hughes (PFF’s No. 101 CB), and Xavier Rhodes (PFF’s No. 141 CB) have all been exploitable, while Mackensie Alexander (PFF’s No. 59) has been announced as out for this weekend. Samuel
has the second best matchup advantage for the weekend according to PFF, behind only Tyreek Hill. He’s sitting at a 20% advantage, while Sanders
isn’t far behind at 18%. One thing to consider is the explosive pass rate (20+ yards) given up by the Vikings. They only yield them on 7% of plays (sharpfootballstats.com), making Samuel the preferred play as the underneath option. George Kittle (upgrade)
has been an absolute stud in 2019, not only is he the No. 1 ranked tight end by PFF, he’s also the highest ranked player in the NFL by PFF. He’s a freaking monster. Still, the Vikings have been very good against opposing tight ends - ceding just 4.8 FPPG to the position, second best. Either way, I’m not willing to bet against Kittle, and considering the other tight ends on the Saturday slate, he should likely be locked into most lineups. The only other to be considered is Mark Andrews (see below), who draws an extremely favorable matchup against the Titans. RB Breakdown
The 49ers backfield has been a bit of a mess to predict all year, but has shaped up in favor of Raheem Mostert
in recent weeks. The emergence of Mostert has relegated Tevin Coleman
and Matt Breida
to complementary roles, with neither offering much in the way of fantasy value. Minnesota has been average against enemy backs - surrendering 16.5 FPPG to the position - but they have allowed an average of 146.3 rushing yards per game over their last three contests. The Vikings defense played above their season average in terms of rushing yards allowed against the Saints, only giving up 97 yards, but New Orleans only ran the ball a meager 17 times. Mostert is in a good spot to produce considering the expected positive game-script at home, but the concern in a Kyle Shanahan offense is the hot hand approach used by the coaching staff. If Mostert doesn’t get it going early, he could see his touches dwindle in favor of a producing back. Still, he’s the cheapest starting RB on the Saturday slate, and offers the same touchdown upside as the other options. Proceed at your own risk, but Mostert could be a fixture in lineups finishing in the money. Score Prediction: 49ers 27, Vikings 21
Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens (-9.5) Titans ATS:
9-7-1 Ravens ATS:
10-6-0 Projected Point Totals:
Titans 18.5 Ravens 28
Titans Opp (BAL) Pass DVOA:
#4 Opp (BAL) Run DVOA:
#19 Opp (BAL) Weighted DEF:
#2 Injuries to Watch DEF (BAL):
None Injuries to Watch OFF (TEN):
WR Adam Humphries (OUT) Key WCB matchups:
None Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks Reg Season):
AJ Brown (26%) Corey Davis (16%) Tajae Sharpe (12%) Adam Humphries (12%) Jonnu Smith (10%) RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Wild Card Round:
Derrick Henry (81%, 35, 1) Dion Lewis (18%, 3, 1) QB/WTE Breakdown
The Titans passing offense predictably found little success against the shutdown secondary of New England last week, but thanks to strong work in other facets of the game, they are on to the second round. Ryan Tannehill (potential volume upgrade)
was a dud in lineups last week, going 8/15 for only 72 yards in the win, despite starting strong on his first drive with multiple completions and a TD throw. As the game wore on, he struggled to find anything downfield and the Titans settled into a ground and pound approach to bleed the clock and pull out a win. The Ravens secondary is unlikely to be much softer on Tannehill this week, as their four main CBs all rank in the top-35 in yards per cover snap as graded by PFF (Rotoworld). The one factor that may work in his favor is a potential shootout forced by the Ravens’ potent offense; if the Titans are facing a big second half deficit they will be less able to lean on their run game. Tannehill isn’t a great play, but makes for a possible dice roll in hopes this turns into a high-scoring and pass-happy affair.
With Tannehill limited by both volume and ineffectiveness, none of the Titans WRs were able to produce last week. That could change if the Ravens force this game into a higher scoring affair - their offense is in another world from the Patriots this season - so there is hope for these pass-catchers this week. While the Ravens secondary is among the best in the NFL, they did rank middle of the pack in FPPG allowed to WRs over the course of the season. Still, they are now ranked by DVOA as the 2nd best defense in the league (based on Weighted DVOA, since weighted DVOA is meant to lower the strength of older games, these ratings do not include Weeks 1-4, and Weeks 5-10 are somewhat discounted), so this will be a tough matchup. The projected negative game flow could play in the Titans WRs favor though; any increase in volume would be welcomed. AJ Brown (slight upgrade)
is the safest bet of this group as he was on an extreme hot streak to finish the regular season, and is not the first WR to be shut down by the Pats defense, so prospective owners should try to have a short memory. Expect him to lead the team in targets and/or catches, and he has a solid shot of bouncing back. He makes for a quality Saturday play based on hope for volume and high-scoring conditions. Corey Davis (volume downgrade)
is much riskier, as he hasn’t seen the targets to believe he can produce well this week. He’s no more than a low-end dart throw in hopes of a red zone target or two. Jonnu Smith (matchup downgrade)
was ineffective last week, and now faces a Baltimore defense that ceded the fewest FPPG to TEs in the regular season. He still has the upside and athleticism to pop off a big play or two, but he is not a trustworthy play. Ultimately, only Brown is worthy of rostering unless you are willing to roll the dice. RB Breakdown
There is really no other way to describe Derrick Henry’s (upgrade)
performance last week other than pure dominance. Yes, he is running behind a strong O-Line, and yes he is in a scheme that plays to his strengths. However, in watching the tape it’s clear that on many of his runs he is creating a large portion of the yards on his own. This season, he was tops in the NFL in yards after contact with 973, and was third in broken tackles at 29 (theringer.com). He continues to run around, past, and through defenders on a weekly basis. Baltimore’s defense did well to limit RBs through the regular season, but that was in part due to their lack of RB receptions allowed, which doesn’t affect Henry as much (Rotoworld). They will do everything they can to limit Henry this week, and potential negative game script may limit his second half touches, but Henry is still a top play for Saturday. He will get 20+ touches, likely see at least one goal line opportunity, and is the only real hope the Titans have of springing the upset. Just be aware there is concern of negative game-flow limiting him slightly. Dion Lewis
is not a realistic fantasy option.
Ravens Opp (TEN) Pass DVOA:
#21 Opp (TEN) Run DVOA:
#10 Opp (TEN) Weighted DEF:
#17 Injuries to Watch DEF (TEN) Wednesday Report:
LB Jayon Brown (OUT) Injuries to Watch OFF (BAL) Wednesday Report:
Mark Ingram (Q) Mark Andrews (Q) Key WCB matchups:
Marquise Brown vs. Adoree Jackson (unlikely full shadow, Rotoworld) Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks Reg Season):
Mark Andrews (22% Marquise Brown (14%) Jaleel Scott (14%) Seth Roberts (12%) Willie Snead (11%) RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 16:
Mark Ingram (41%, 10, 2) Gus Edwards (41%, 13, 1) Justice Hill (18%, 6, 4) QB/WTE Breakdown
The Ravens head into Divisional Weekend fresh and rested, and Lamar Jackson (upgrade)
now gets the opportunity to rack up the first of what should be many playoff wins in his career. The all but certain 2019 NFL MVP last took the field in Week 16 when he orchestrated a win over the Browns to lock up the #1 seed in the NFC. Fantasy owners need no reminder of the ridiculous numbers Jackson put up in the regular season, and there is little reason to expect much of a dropoff on Saturday. The Titans were strong against the pass in the regular season, and looked impressive in holding Tom Brady to 209 yards with no scores and one interception. However, Jackson’s game is as much running as it is passing, and there has been no team that truly slowed him from racking up yards in either area during the regular season. Jackson is the top play at QB for the weekend, and should pay off well for prospective owners that choose to invest in him.
Jackson’s historical rushing production meant that owners were unable to glean much from this passing game. Only Mark Andrews (upgrade)
was a consistent fantasy option throughout the year, and he quickly became a top-5 weekly option. Tennessee gave up the 6th most FPPG to TEs through the regular season, so this is a plus matchup for the stud TE. Andrews is a top option for the Saturday slate, or the weekend overall, and should be a staple in lineups that can afford him. After that, things get tricky. Marquise Brown (slight upgrade)
proved to be worth owning this season, but he was still a weekly bust candidate if not catching a deep ball or snagging one of Jackson’s five passing TDs on a given week. The Titans were middle of the pack against WRs, and have a below-average pass DVOA, but Brown should see a lot of Adoree Jackson in coverage as well. Jackson has the speed to keep up with Brown in theory, so there’s less of a perceived advantage there. However, if Jackson gets his passing game going, Brown is second only to Andrews in terms of likely production received from said passing. Consider Brown a boom or bust WR3 type this week; he’s an intriguing tournament option to go against the grain. No other Baltimore pass-catcher can realistically be put into a lineup. RB Breakdown
Thursday’s practice report brought about a limited session for veteran starting RB Mark Ingram (questionable)
, and there are mixed reports about his potential availability. If he is able to play, Ingram may see slightly reduced snaps, although he has already been only about a 50-60% snap guy in the regular season, but his touch count could be further limited. The matchup with the Titans is somewhat favorable - they had the 19th worst run DVOA but gave up the 13th fewest FPPG to RBs - and the Ravens are huge home favorites, which increases his odds of punching in a TD or two. This gives his outlook a boost, but the injury concern merits close monitoring, and could put him at risk for an in-game aggravation that would tank any lineup. If he is ultimately ruled out prior to kickoff, Gus Edwards (volume upgrade if Ingram sits)
and Justice Hill
immediately vault into potential solid plays. Edwards would likely see the bulk of the early down work, with Hill mixing in as a change of pace and passing game option. Still, Hill didn’t get much passing involvement in the regular season, and would be virtually impossible to trust unless clear reports emerged stating his expected involvement (unlikely). Edwards would be the much stronger play, and would actually become one of the best value options of the weekend. He would likely see around 15-20 touches and have first shot at goal line opportunities. Keep a close eye on the injury reports, and consider avoiding the situation entirely unless a definitive report about Ingram surfaces in advance of lineups locking. Score Prediction: Ravens 24, Titans 17
Keys to Kentucky Game
Limit Kentucky's Transition Opportunities submitted by Broadway_Bullies to DoughGoesIn [link] [comments]
20% of Kentucky's possessions have occurred in transition, where they are incredibly efficient (94th percentile at 1.158 points per transition possession).
I don't see a way that Tech wins this game if it's an up-and-down affair. We need to limit open-floor turnovers and run good offense to keep them out of transition. Making enough baskets to set up our passive full-court press will also be helpful in slowing them down.
Force Kentucky to Make Shots
On catch-and-shoot jumpers, Kentucky is 56/197 from the field. The only P5 team with a lower eFG% is Aggy (and only 4/351 D1 teams are lower).
Kentucky knows this is a weakness, as no other P5 team attempts fewer threes per FG attempt.
The fact that Kentucky is this bad of a jump-shooting team and still has the 32nd most efficient offense per Kenpom is a testament to how good they are at attacking the basket and scoring from the free throw line.
Immanuel Quickley is the only guy that we'll want to run off of the three point line.
Force Ashton Hagans to Score
Similar to our game plan against Tyrese Halliburton, Tech's likely to refrain from helping too much on Hagan's drives. Hagan is an above-average scorer, but he'd much rather get into the lane to create for others than finish it himself at the rim.
Win the Street Fight for Rebounders
Kentucky makes up for their lack of finesse shot-makers with a bevy of bruiser types.
3 upper-classmen will be in the 6-9 to 6-11 range, weighing from 230-250 lbs. All three have a premier individual ranking in offense rebound % & shot blocking % per Kenpom. There's also a skinny but long FR (Keion Brooks) that is already, or will eventually be, an elite rebounder and rim protector.
Beard mentioned this in his presser but our guards (Ramsey, Kyler, Morro) will have to get their noses bloody scrapping for rebounds w/ these guys.
Again, the better we defend on the perimeter, the less our bigs will have to help on to the driver, & the easier it will be to set up our box out assignments.
We Need to Make a Few Putts
Tech's MO offensively this year and, probably the foreseeable future under Beard, is about getting to the free throw line and generating shots at the basket. While we may be produce some shots near the basket, it's going to be difficult to convert tough finishes against this many big & athletic rim protectors.
Simply stated, we'll need a few putts (or jump shots) to fall. Not necessarily at a much higher clip than we normally shoot, but definitely better from three than 4/17 (TCU), 6/28 (WVU), or 7/23 (Baylor).
UK's ability to protect the rim is similar to WVU's, and I anticipate Tech will shoot about 25 or more threes tomorrow.
I have a good feeling about the game, partly because I'll be there and am overly optimistic at the prospect of seeing a win in person.
But also because the consensus among, pretty much everyone, is that a Tech win would be anywhere from a mild to large upset. Meanwhile, the betting markets (I haven't seen an opener yet) will have Tech somewhere around a 2 point favorite. The implied odds from the moneyline will be Tech w/ about a 55%-60% chance of winning.
Of course, the ball will go up and none of this will matter, but my own superstitions love how Tech isn't being given much of a chance by anyone except the most accurate predictor of sporting outcomes (a/k/a the betting line).
I'm thinking Tech wins 65-59 in a game that might not even be as close as that score seems.
Sports Betting Online - The Things You Must Keep In Mind When Playing
submitted by tignomimli to u/tignomimli [link] [comments]
If you're just How to calculate a parlay?
, there are several things that you simply must essentially confine mind. Your knowledge will function your tool in ensuring that some time , effort and money spent thereon are going to be productive.
Implement Good Money Management
It applies not just in sports betting, but in all pastimes you perform that involves wagering money. Money management will help in guarding your bankroll and in keeping you away from bankruptcy. Betting all your money is never a smart decision and it will also not help you in being a successful long term player. Spend only what is okay for you to lose in case it is not your lucky day to play.
Look And Shop Around
Odds offered in online sports betting differ from one sports book to another. Therefore, shopping around will be very helpful in finding which one offers the best odds and the best deals.
Pay Attention To Underdogs
Not because a player or a team is the crowd's favorite, it already means that it will always win the game. Underdogs, too, can have the edge over the favorites depending on how the game is played. Do not underestimate the capability of underdogs.
Know The Bets You Can Make
There are many sorts of bets which will be made when wagering money in online sports betting. Knowing what bets you'll make is additionally another important knowledge that you simply got to obtain. Below are a number of the bets utilized in sports betting.
Single or Straight Bet is the most common and the simplest bet that you can make. This means that you will bet on who will win at a particular game.
Point Spread allows betting on the winner from selections made equal through appropriate allocations to the losing team. Essentially, you will wager on certain points by which the winning team will defeat the underdog.
The Moneyline sets up the probabilities for every team; yet is inversely related to what could have been the point spread.
Total Bet refers to the sum of the points earned by the two teams, inclusive of the scores they earned during overtimes.
Over or Under bet also involves the sum of the scores made by the two teams. However, in wagering, you'll back whether the sum is over or under the entire amount indicated by the chances maker.
Accumulator Or Parlay is a multiple bet. You can make numerous selections at a time on quite two games with the intention of pressing the winnings of the primary to the succeeding wins. To win the parlay, you need to win each selection. For tie, cancelled or postponed games, the parlay will be automatically lowered by just one selection. The double parlay can turn into a straight kind of bet; the triple parlay can become a double. If you win a parlay; it can definitely yield enormous money.
The teaser bet is similar to a parlay; except that you have an alternative to add/subtract points from one or several spread bets.
Here's why idgaf about on-line betting odds for GoT
submitted by Ks427236 to freefolk [link] [comments]
Edit: according to mooncoin_money
there is a payout limit of $200 for this bet on one of the sites. The rest of my post is unnecessary at this point, what insider would give a shit about $200, lol
Freefolk has inspired me to put on my detective cap and see if it is logical or likely that insider betting has greatly affected the odds on sites like bovada. Here's some common arguments I've seen in support of insider betting being the cause of specific character shifts, and why i think they are baseless claims:
- "Insiders can make so much money off of these betting sites":
No, not really. There are individual wager payout limits like $100,000 at Bovada
, and individual player payout limits like $150,000 in a 24 hour period at BetOnline
. While those amounts are nothing to sniff at its hard to imagine many insiders willing to lose their career, personal relationships, and risk a lawsuit if they had any type of contract or NDA with production over that low of a payout.
To even reach those payout amounts a large wager would have to be put down in the first place. For example: to get a payout of $99,964 (the closest to the 100k limit without going over) when brans odds were at +6600 you would have to place a bet of $1492. It is highly
unlikely there was ever an option to place that large of a bet. Entertainment prop bets are a teeny tiny portion of what these online betting sites do. They dont invest the time and money into them that you would need to in order to monitor large bets like that. Oddsshark says the following about prop bets: Most sportsbooks also spend much less time making sure the lines are sharp on props than they do on more traditional lines such as point spreads, moneylines and OVEUNDER totals. Instead, they usually charge extra juice on props, making it easier for them to profit on these types of wagers.
. It is particularly hard to find info on entertainment prop bets because they are such an insignificant part of the business, the sites don't waste much effort on explaining them. The most concrete limit on entertainment prop bets I could find is in relation to nfl entertainment prop bets
: "Also note that some NFL props come with a smaller maximum bet than usual, especially those dealing with entertainment; a cap of $50 is common with these wagers." If they'll only allow you to bet $50 on a super bowl half-time show wager then why would they allow bets 20x that on Game of Thrones? Just not logical.
In the interest of finding out the truth, I contacted Bovada since on-line betting is illegal in my state so I can't place a wager myself and see what the limit is. The entertainment prop bets are so unimportant to Bovada they dont even have information readily available about it to their sports book customer service team, who would be able to break down sports bets for me no problem. So customer service couldnt give me a definitive answer about what the wager limit is for GoT, but they said entertainment bets in general do not reach their game prop bet limits, which according to this table
are mostly in the $500-$1000 range.
If anyone placed a bet on one of these sites and was shown what the max betting limit was we would all love to know.
- "they can make multiple accounts or have friends and family place the bets too":
multiple accounts will likely not pass the sniff test at these sites. They pretty much all use third party companies to verify the identity of customers, definitely use these checks on people placing high wagers, and will absolutely verify info before making a large payout. Someone willing to risk their career for this money would probably read the terms a bit and realize they can't pull off fake accounts. If
they are smart and technologically savy enough to have multiple identities that can hold up against dmv records and the like then wtf are doing messing with game of thrones, their professional scammer asses should already be rich.
Yes, they can have friends and family place bets as well, but the more people you bring into the loop the more likely you are to get caught. Loose lips sink ships. These additional people would also be taking on the tax burden that goes along with large payouts, which many people might not want to do.
- why would so many people be betting on bran if it isn't insider info?:
because people are sheeple. Oddsshark explains betting against the public
as a good strategy becase "The idea behind this betting system is that the public can be easily brainwashed by the media and tends to be wrong more often than not, so the more excited and loaded up they are on one side of a game, the more likely it is that the “smart” wager is taking the opposite side and fading them instead." The public is the people piling on bran, the smat money is to bet against them.
- other general points of interest:
the odds for things like who dies first doesnt line up with known info, which Excellent_Aerie
did a great job of explaining in this thread
. Why would an insider(s) not be using info to make money off those categories?
There are no co-ruling options, which means you could potentially lose money on a winning bet, as already explained here
When there has been insider knowledge betting in the past betting has been suspended, end of story. This time around it was suspended, investigated, and re-opened. I'm not looking for the links for that, someone else can search for them if need be.
The prosecution rests it's case, your honor. All hail King Bullshit
Betting through a mathematical model (MLB) - not the most exciting (or profitable) but the most reliable way
First off this will be on the longer side but time and effort is what it takes to win when betting on every game, all season long. submitted by jalen57 to sportsbook [link] [comments]
I envy those who can look at a matchup between teams in any sport and know more or less how they will matchup. For NBA this means knowing how teams will build their lineups depending on their opponents and which players can counter stars on the other teams. For MLB this could mean taking into account variables like stadium, weather, batting order, and what not. Generally across all sports being able to look at a certain matchup and the previous games between the two teams and using that knowledge to make an educated pick is a highly valuable skill. Being the degenerate that I am, I want to be betting all year round and as my favourite sport, basketball, only spans the winter months I wanted a way to break into the MLB betting (without losing).
The next phase of creating a system is the tough part. You have the hits, runs, innings pitched, batter faces, and pitches thrown for each pitcher. This allows me to calculate ERA, WHIP, OBP, B/IP, and P/IP on my own. That saves me a lot of lines of code otherwise needed to import all those stats into my own spreadsheets. The problem at hand is now figuring out which stats will predict what outcome. Big three bets are full game: spread, run total, moneyline. For someone who doesn't want to use high level calculus to get picks the immidiate solution is to reduce everything to a graph with a line. For example: ERA vs Hits/Inning, the possibilities are endless. Excel and google sheets have CORREL (correlation between two data sets) and LINEST (gives you an line of best fit for two sets of data) which makes it easy to pour out hundreds correlations between stats. So I set my correlations and equations between various pitcher (ERA, WHIP, OBP) stats as my X variable and game stats (At Bats, Runs, Hits) as my Y value. With all these equations and correlations I was now set to find what I call the "trail" of stats that would lead me to best results.
The trail is like a flowchart of stats that ultimately leads to what you want to predict, in my case, runs per team. The best system isn't the one that has all the right trails. A little side note I have been betting on the NBA spread and point totals for two seasons now. The odds are always -110 to -120 so a 55% win rate guarantees profit. This past regular season I was 210-143 (59%). What I noticed was that the trails change during the course of a season. At the beginning I could reliably predict each players individual points and add them up but towards the end I started predicting points by position instead. ANYWAYS, the goal is to always have many trails available and to track each one constantly to see if any of them become "hot". An example of a trail that I use for MLB is this :
have a graph and equation for opposing teams Pitcher's ERA in the last 2 weeks for all Yankees games vs the number of at bats for the Yankees. I then have graphs for At bats vs Hits and Hits vs Runs. You use AB to calculate the H's and then H's to calculate the R's.
Now this isn't the usual premise of a gambling system "78% WIN RATE" those "systems" are only at 78% because their definition of a win differs from ours. This is a system where you bet 5$ on 3 bets per 15 games ($225 risk) and you win 30 bets and 270$. Its not the thrill of winning a super parlay but it turns your hobby into an investment. Now that I have set up about 30 ways (trails) to predict runs I'm all set to go out and make some money.
That's why I will be posting daily MLB picks when I have the time (most days) and hope that you follow them. The idea is to bet the same on every bet and bet all bets. The MLB gives us the luxury other leagues don't, frequency. In NBA i would hit 7/7 spreads on day and 1/4 another. With 8-15 games every night this lessens the chance of a crazy loss but also of a crazy win. Hopefully we can all pocket some money this season and learn a thing or two while we are at it. I will be posting picks on the daily threads all season long but eventually my goal is to have a free app that will source my database directly. Since the lines never chance but only the odds on spread and run totals its okay to post picks early in the day.
If you've read this far thanks and even if you don't want to do the volume betting that I do track the picks for a week then decide again. I'm always spending time refining my system, I believe if you don't put in the hours you won't see results so I refuse to sit back and just let what I have made already run.
Looking forward to a plentiful season :)
NALCS Week 5 Day 2 Betting Breakdown
submitted by I_Have_Morganarrhea to leagueoflegends [link] [comments]
As a long time LCS fan and LeagueOfLegends
follower I have not seen hardly any submissions related to the e-sports betting side of League, and as a result I have decided to submit my two cents on today's NALCS matches. (I will continue to do so for both EULCS and NALCS matches if desired) Match 1: Echo Fox (+297) vs NRG (-390)
Should be an interesting match as a full strength Echo Fox squad takes on NRG who are rebounding from a tough loss to CLG yesterday. Echo fox is my dark horse pick of the week as it will be nice to see a full Fox team back together. Watching KFO take on Impact in the top lane should be fun. I'm giving the edge to NRG as I think they are a more well rounded team and have had slightly more time to play together as compared to the recently completed Fox team. However, if you're looking for a pick with great upside, don't count out the revamped Fox. My Pick: NRG Match 2: CLG (-150) vs TSM (+123)
Definitely the game of the day between these two colossal franchises. TSM comes off a disjointed win over Impulse yesterday, while CLG also looks to go 2-0 this weekend after beating NRG. I'd say both of these teams have under-performed thus far with TSM facing serious shot calling and teamwork problems while CLG just haven't looked as dominant as they did last split. In this match I'm going against the moneyline and picking TSM as I think they're lane matchups and early game are better that CLG's (I know start the booing). The big question for this game will be which team's adc gets caught out the most... My Pick: TSM Match 3: Immortals (-342) vs Cloud9 (+265)
This match could actually be decent to watch if Cloud9 comes out strongly like they did against Liquid. Overall C9 played a very complete game yesterday methodically taking down Liqiud in just under 30 minutes. Jensen had a great game on the OP corki midlane and Rush was his usual annoying self applying pressure everywhere in the enemies jungle with Nunu... but, they are taking on the undefeated IMT who have absolutely blown away expectations and look to continue their undefeated streak into the second half of the season. Hoping for a close game but not expecting much. My Pick: IMT Match 4: Liquid (-319) vs Renegades (+249)
The 4th match and more than likely least interesting match of today pits Renegads vs, Liquid. Liquid are sitting on a 4-5 record looking to make it to .500 on the season while Relegades seem to be biding there time until the end of the split. Shouldn't be any real surprises here today especially if Dardoch can pressure the map like he has done the past few weeks. Can't wait for the 1v4v5 as Freeze looks to one man army the team for the next 5 weeks. My Pick: Liquid Match 5: Dignitas (+111) vs Impulse (-135)
The 5th and final match today pits two bottom half of the standings teams both eager for a chance to clinch the 6th spot in the playoffs. Dig had an ok start to the match vs. Immortals yesterday, eventually succumbing as all teams do. On the other side, Impulse is also coming off a tough loss to TSM. The lane to watch in this game is Shiphtur vs Pirean as two decent mids battle things out. I believe Impulse has the edge in this matchup as they have worked together well as a team in the first half of the split. Looking forward to a decent match to end the day. My Pick: Impulse Last Thoughts
My safest pick of the week is team Liquid and my dark horse pick is Echo Fox.
Best bet Parlay: NRG, IMT, Liquid, Impulse (+217)
Again these are just my opinions on the today's matches, not meant to offend anyone and by no means am I an expert on gambling or the League scene. Please let me know what you think about the matches or if there's anything I can improve upon. I apologize if formatting is off as this is my first post to this subreddit.I used Pinnacle sports for the moneylines.
About: TheSpread.com is the largest sports betting news site in the United States. We provide point spread news, odds, statistics and information to over 175 countries around the world each year. Our coverage includes all North American College and Professional Sports as well as entertainment, political and proposition wagering news. Simply put, a moneyline tells you how much you have to wager in order to make a profit of $100. Consider a hypothetical baseball game between the Chicago Cubs and the Los Angeles Dodgers. When looking at the moneyline for the game, a bettor will see something like this: Money lines (also called American Odds) are one of the most common ways to bet on sports. They do not use a point spread, and are straight-up bets on who will win the game or event. To properly explain how to bet the money line, the first thing to understand is the difference between a negative and positive money line. Definition of Money Line A money line is a wager on the natural result of a game or event. In other words, the score or outcome is unadjusted. This is different from spread betting where the sportsbook adjusts the score to determine the winner. The favorite team or player on the moneyline is the team that’s expected to win. This side of the bet usually listed with a minus (-) sign. The underdog team or player on the moneyline is the team that’s expected to lose. This side of the moneyline is usually listed with a plus (+) sign. These signs signify how either side of the wager will pay.