Interactive Forex Chart - Investing.com

Forex Trading Lessons: A Must For Forex Beginners

Forex Trading Lessons: A Must For Forex Beginners
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Free Forex Trading Course

Complete Currency Trader is the brainchild of James Edward, founder & CEO. It uses a system that professional traders use. Most courses analyse currency pairs but CCT examines the forex marketplace as a whole and matches strong currencies against weak currencies.
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Noob to reading forex charts - is now a decent time to convert KRW to USD?

Have a sizeable amount of Korean Won sitting in cash, been meaning to convert this to USD for a while. Is now a decent time?
Also if anyone has guides to reading forex charts B)
submitted by SexualDemon to korea [link] [comments]

Noob to reading forex charts - is now a decent time to convert KRW to USD?

Have a sizeable amount of Korean Won sitting in cash, been meaning to convert this to USD for a while. Is now a decent time?
Also if anyone has guides to reading forex charts B)
submitted by SexualDemon to travel [link] [comments]

For those who daytrade forex, how many trades do you make a day. Plus what chart time frames do you look at?

submitted by Big_Bannana123 to Forex [link] [comments]

Is forex & crypto data / charts complete & real time on TradingView ?

A lot of the charts look incomplete compared to other charting software. Especially for cryptos
submitted by AbstruseYak to TradingView [link] [comments]

@AlphaexCapital : USDCAD above 100 bar MA on 4-hour chart for the first time since June 18 https://t.co/2Q6eIPSVvs #forex #forextrading #investing

submitted by AlphaexCapital to AlphaexCapital [link] [comments]

03-11 07:42 - '🏙️ - Forex Trading Group 📊 - Real -Time Forex Signals (Telegram) 📱 - Daily Chart Analysis & Videos 👇 - 4-8 Daily Signals from our Team' (t.me) by /u/CostyTrades removed from /r/unitedkingdom within 51-61min

🏙️ - Forex Trading Group 📊 - Real -Time Forex Signals (Telegram) 📱 - Daily Chart Analysis & Videos 👇 - 4-8 Daily Signals from our Team
Go1dfish undelete link
unreddit undelete link
Author: CostyTrades
submitted by removalbot to removalbot [link] [comments]

PART I - My 10 Minute/Day Trading Strategy

PART I - My 10 Minute/Day Trading Strategy
Before I start providing details, here's a disclaimer:
- YOU are responsible for how you implement this strategy. This is NOT individualized investment advice.
- There's a difference between spotting the technical setup and then allocating risk to the trading idea. I have several ways of actually putting money behind this strategy. I will discuss the various ways in a different post. There's no 'best' way. A lot of it will come down to personality and risk tolerance. For example, someone might want the very high win rate and be willing to sacrifice profit factor. Someone else might be okay with a lower strike rate if it means a much higher profit factor.
- I teach this strategy to all of my prop traders that are a good fit for this strategy. It seems to work really well for others, not just myself. This is why I am confident in being able to present it to this community.
Here's a bit of background on the strategy:
I wanted to have a very easy strategy that I could run on a manual discretionary basis while travelling around the world. This discovery was made several years ago and it is no longer a strategy I run today. The reason I don't run it any longer is because I have since left the retail and prop worlds of trading and the way I run my portfolio now has simply outgrown the strategy. It is a purely technical strategy and does not take news events into account whatsoever.
It takes 10 minutes roughly each day to look for and execute any suitable trading opportunities. I would guess on average you could end each week with about 3-6 trades taken depending on some discretionary filters (one big one would be which timeframes you want to run the strategy on).
I have historically run the strategy on the following timeframes:
- Monthly charts
- Weekly charts
- Daily charts
- 12 hour charts
- 8 hour charts
- 6 hour charts
Every time a candle/bar closes you have a potential trading opportunity. This means you know EXACTLY when to be scanning your charts for trades. My favourite way of trading this strategy is on an end-of-day (NY end of day) schedule. So at 5pm EST, wherever I was in the world, I would be at my system looking for setups. Depending on your broker, if the EOD is 5pm EST, then you will be able to scan the D1, 12H, 8H, 6H, 4H timeframes (I personally would only look at the D1, 12H, 8H, 6H timeframes at 5pm EST). You can scan the weekly timeframe at the end of the week. The monthly timeframe at the end of the month. Pretty straightforward.
Here are the technical elements/indicators involved:
- Candlestick / Bar chart
- Bollinger Bands (20 period, 2 standard deviations)
- Stochastic Oscillator (14, 3, 3 - standard settings)
- OPTIONAL: fibonacci tools (retracements & extensions)
You should be able to get your chart set up with these indicators no matter what platform you are using. Pretty standard stuff.
Below is a chart with the main elements of the strategy labelled. Note that this is a textbook short trade example. I'm NOT showing how to enter and exit yet, or even explaining what a great setup looks like. Let's get familiar with just the raw ingredients of the recipe before we start baking a cake, okay?
Aaaand that's a wrap. Part 2 will come shortly. Part 2 will explain the thought process behind the strategy, how it works, WHY it works, WHO this will work for. Part 3+ I will get into the actual mechanics of finding entries and exits. The last "Part" will cover how to turn the technical setups into actual trades (aka how do I put money behind this?)
https://preview.redd.it/vbrcp3yl25451.png?width=2846&format=png&auto=webp&s=959868d12c3368355057c7da8cc7c3d5cd588128
submitted by ParallaxFX to Forex [link] [comments]

Real Time Charting and Analysis Software View terminal displays real-time data for nse, mcx, ncdex, forex, bitcoins with many features exclusively stated in different forms

Real Time Charting and Analysis Software View terminal displays real-time data for nse, mcx, ncdex, forex, bitcoins with many features exclusively stated in different forms submitted by viewterminal22 to u/viewterminal22 [link] [comments]

Is there such thing as too many indicators?

Is there such thing as too many indicators? submitted by Rebel-Wit-A-Bezel to Forex [link] [comments]

Active duty Newbie

Hi everyone. Im currently active duty Infantry in the United States Marine Corps. I found out about Forex thru a mutual friend that seems to be having alot of success from it. Only thing is that he is a civilian and has plenty of time on his hands which is something i dont. Im just curious to know is it possible i can have success from Forex due to my service? Be completely honest with me, all feedback is welcome. I just dont want to waste my time with something that i have no chance at doing. Im an eager learner and am willing to dedicate some of my spare time to this if its possible. Delete if not allowed.
submitted by Slow_Dancing_Alone to Forex [link] [comments]

Your Pre Market Brief for 07/16/2020

Pre Market Brief for Thursday July 16th 2020

You can subscribe to the daily 4:00 AM Pre Market Brief on The Twitter Link Here . Alerts in the tweets will direct you to the daily 4:00 AM Pre Market Brief in this sub.
Updated as of 4:45 AM EST
-----------------------------------------------
Stock Futures:
Wednesday 07/15/2020 News and Markets Recap:
Thursday July 16th 2020 Economic Calendar (All times are in EST)
(JOBLESS CLAIMS TODAY)
News Heading into Thursday July 16th 2020:
NOTE: I USUALLY (TRY TO) POST MANY OF THE MOST PROMISING, DRAMATIC, OR BAD NEWS OVERNIGHT STORIES THAT ARE LIKELY IMPORTANT TO THE MEMBERS OF THIS SUB AT THE TOP OF THIS LIST. PLEASE DO NOT YOLO THE VARIOUS TICKERS WITHOUT DOING RESEARCH! THE TIME STAMPS ON THESE MAY BE LATER THAN OTHERS ON THE WEB.
Upcoming Earnings:
Commodities:
COVID-19 Stats and News:
Macro Considerations:
Most Recent SEC Filings
Other
-----------------------------------------------
Morning Research and Trading Prep Tool Kit
Other Useful Resources:
The Ultimate Quick Resource For the Amateur Trader.
Subscribe to This Brief and the daily 4:00 AM Pre Market Brief on The Twitter Link Here . Alerts in the tweets will direct you to the daily brief in this sub
submitted by Cicero1982 to pennystocks [link] [comments]

2.5 years and 145 backtested trades later

I have a habit of backtesting every strategy I find as long as it makes sense. I find it fun, and even if the strategy ends up being underperforming, it gives me a good excuse to gain valuable chart experience that would normally take years to gather. After I backtest something, I compare it to my current methodology, and usually conclude that mine is better either because it has a better performance or the new method requires too much time to manage (Spoiler: until now, I like this better)
During the last two days, I have worked on backtesting ParallaxFx strategy, as it seemed promising and it seemed to fit my personality (a lazy fuck who will happily halve his yearly return if it means he can spend 10% less time in front of the screens). My backtesting is preliminary, and I didn't delve very deep in the data gathering. I usually track all sort of stuff, but for this first pass, I sticked to the main indicators of performance over a restricted sample size of markets.
Before I share my results with you, I always feel the need to make a preface that I know most people will ignore.
Strategy
I am not going to go into the strategy in this thread. If you haven't read the series of threads by the guy who shared it, go here.
As suggested by my mentioned personality type, I went with the passive management options of ParallaxFx's strategy. After a valid setup forms, I place two orders of half my risk. I add or remove 1 pip from each level to account for spread.
Sample
I tested this strategy over the seven major currency pairs: AUDUSD, USDCAD, NZDUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, EURUSD, USDCHF. The time period started on January 1th 2018 and ended on July 1th 2020, so a 2.5 years backtest. I tested over the D1 timeframe, and I plan on testing other timeframes.
My "protocol" for backtesting is that, if I like what I see during this phase, I will move to the second phase where I'll backtest over 5 years and 28 currency pairs.
Units of measure
I used R multiples to track my performance. If you don't know what they are, I'm too sleepy to explain right now. This article explains what they are. The gist is that the results you'll see do not take into consideration compounding and they normalize volatility (something pips don't do, and why pips are in my opinion a terrible unit of measure for performance) as well as percentage risk (you can attach variable risk profiles on your R values to optimize position sizing in order to maximize returns and minimize drawdowns, but I won't get into that).
Results
I am not going to link the spreadsheet directly, because it is in my GDrive folder and that would allow you to see my personal information. I will attach screenshots of both the results and the list of trades. In the latter, I have included the day of entry for each trade, so if you're up to the task, you can cross-reference all the trades I have placed to make sure I am not making things up.
Overall results: R Curve and Segmented performance.
List of trades: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7. Something to note: I treated every half position as an individual trade for the sake of simplicity. It should not mess with the results, but it simply means you will see huge streaks of wins and losses. This does not matter because I'm half risk in each of them, so a winstreak of 6 trades is just a winstreak of 3 trades.
For reference:
Thoughts
Nice. I'll keep testing. As of now it is vastly better than my current strategy.
submitted by Vanguer to Forex [link] [comments]

Good source for free real-time forex data and charts?

Right now I use Forex at TradingCharts.com. It is pretty good, but I was wondering if there was something I hadn't seen yet.
submitted by usuallyskeptical to investing [link] [comments]

Is meta trader 4 the best forex platform

submitted by kayy2002 to Forex [link] [comments]

The Mouthbreather's Guide to the Galaxy

The Mouthbreather's Guide to the Galaxy
Alright CYKAS, Drill Sgt. Retarded TQQQ Burry is in the house. Listen up, I'm gonna train yo monkey asses to make some motherfucking money.

“Reeee can’t read, strike?” - random_wsb_autist
Bitch you better read if you want your Robinhood to look like this:
gainz, bitch


Why am I telling you this?
Because I like your dumb asses. Even dickbutts like cscqb4. And because I like seeing Wall St. fucking get rekt. Y’all did good until now, and Wall St. is salty af. Just google for “retail traders” news if you haven’t seen it, and you’ll see the salty tears of Wall Street assholes. And I like salty Wall St. assholes crying like bitches.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/retail-investors-are-crushing-hedge-funds-again

That said, some of you here are really motherfucking dense & the sheer influx of retardation has been driving away some of the more knowledgeable folks on this sub. In fact, in my last post, y'all somehow managed to downvote to shit the few guys that really understood the points I was making and tried to explain it to you poo-slinging apes. Stop that shit yo! A lot of you need to sit the fuck down, shut your fucking mouth and listen.
So I'm going to try and turn you rag-tag band of dimwits into a respectable army of peasants that can clap some motherfucking Wall Street cheeks. Then, I'm going to give you a mouthbreather-proof trade that I don't think even you knuckleheads can mess up (though I may be underestimating you).
If you keep PM-ing me about your stupid ass losses after this, I will find out where you live and personally, PERSONALLY, shit on your doorstep.
This is going to be a long ass post. Read the damned post. I don't care if you're dyslexic, use text-to-speech. Got ADHD? Pop your addys, rub one out, and focus! Are you 12? Make sure to go post in the paper trading contest thread first.

THE RULES:
  1. Understand that most of this sub has the critical reading skills of a 6 year old and the attention span of a goldfish. As such, my posts are usually written with a level of detail aimed at the lowest common denominator. A lot of details on the thesis are omitted, but that doesn't mean that the contents in the post are all there is to it. If I didn't do that, every post'd have to be longer than this one, and 98% of you fucks wouldn't read it anyway. Fuck that.
  2. Understand that my style of making plays is finding the >10+ baggers that are underpriced. As such, ALL THE GOD DAMN PLAYS I POST ARE HIGH-RISK / HIGH-REWARD. Only play what you can afford to risk. And stop PM-ing me the second the market goes the other way, god damn it! If you can't manage your own positions, I'm going to teach your ass the basics.
  3. Do you have no idea what you're doing and have a question? Google it first. Then google it again. Then Bing it, for good measure. Might as well check PornHub too, you never know. THEN, if you still didn't find the answer, you ask.
  4. This sub gives me Tourette's. If you got a problem with that, well fuck you.

This shit is targeted at the mouthbreathers, but maybe more knowledgeable folk’ll find some useful info, idk. How do you know if you’re in the mouthbreather category? If your answer to any of the following questions is yes, then you are:
  • Are you new to trading?
  • Are you unable to manage your own positions?
  • Did you score into the negatives on the SAT Critical Reading section?
  • Do you think Delta is just an airline?
  • Do you buy high & sell low?
  • Do you want to buy garbage like Hertz or American Airlines because it's cheap?
  • Did you buy USO at the bottom and are now proud of yourself for making $2?
  • Do you think stOnKs oNLy Go uP because Fed brrr?
  • Do you think I'm trying to sell you puts?
  • If you take a trade you see posted on this sub and are down, do you PM the guy posting it?
  • Do you generally PM people on this sub to ask them basic questions?
  • Is your mouth your primary breathing apparatus?
Well I have just the thing for you!


Table of Contents:
I. Maybe, just maybe, I know what I’m talking about
II. Post-mortem of the February - March 2020 Great Depression
III. Mouthbreather's bootcamp on managing a position – THE TECHNICALS
IV. Busting your retarded myths
V. LIQUIDITY NUKE INBOUND
VI. The mouthbreather-proof trade - The Akimbo
VII. Quick hints for non-mouthbreathers


Chapter I - Maybe, just maybe, I know what I’m talking about
I'm not here to rip you off. Every fucking time I post something, a bunch of dumbasses show up saying I'm selling you puts or whatever the fuck retarded thoughts come through their caveman brains.
"hurr durr OP retarded, OP sell puts" - random_wsb_autist
Sit down, Barney, I'm not here to scam you for your 3 cents on OTM puts. Do I always get it right? Of course not, dumbasses. Eurodollar play didn't work out (yet). Last TQQQ didn't work out (yet). That’s just how it goes. Papa Buffet got fucked on airlines. Plain retard Burry bought GME. What do you fucking expect?
Meanwhile, I keep giving y'all good motherfucking plays:
  1. 28/10/2019: "I'ma say this again, in case you haven't heard me the first time. BUY $JNK PUTS NOW!". Strike: "11/15, 1/17 and 6/19". "This thing can easily go below 50, so whatever floats your boat. Around $100 strike is a good entry point."
  2. 3/9/2020: "I mean it's a pretty obvious move, but $JNK puts."
  3. 3/19/2020, 12pm: "UVXY put FDs are free money." & “Buy $UVXY puts expiring tomorrow if we're still green at 3pm. Trust me.”
  4. 3/24/2020: “$UUP 3/27 puts at $27.5 or $27 should be 10-baggers once the bill passes. I'd expect it to go to around $26.”
And of course, the masterpiece that was the TQQQ put play.
Chapter II. Post-mortem of the February - March 2020 Great Depression
Do you really understand what happened? Let's go through it.
I got in puts on 2/19, right at the motherfucking top, TQQQ at $118. I told you on 2/24 TQQQ ($108) was going to shit, and to buy fucking puts, $90ps, $70ps, $50ps, all the way to 3/20 $30ps. You think I just pulled that out of my ass? You think I just keep getting lucky, punks? Do you have any idea how unlikely that is?
Well, let's take a look at what the fuckstick Kevin Cook from Zacks wrote on 3/5:
How Many Sigmas Was the Flash Correction Plunge?
"Did you know that last week's 14% plunge in the S&P 500 SPY was so rare, by statistical measures, that it shouldn't happen once but every 14,000 years?"
"By several measures, it was about a 5-sigma move, something that's not "supposed to" happen more than once in your lifetime -- or your prehistoric ancestors' lifetimes!
"According to general statistical principles, a 4-sigma event is to be expected about every 31,560 days, or about 1 trading day in 126 years. And a 5-sigma event is to be expected every 3,483,046 days, or about 1 day every 13,932 years."

On 3/5, TQQQ closed at $81. I just got lucky, right? You should buy after a 5-sigma move, right? That's what fuckstick says:
"Big sigma moves happen all the time in markets, more than any other field where we collect and analyze historical data, because markets are social beasts subject to "wild randomness" that is not found in the physical sciences.
This was the primary lesson of Nassim Taleb's 2007 book The Black Swan, written before the financial crisis that found Wall Street bankers completely ignorant of randomness and the risks of ruin."
I also took advantage of the extreme 5-sigma sell-off by grabbing a leveraged ETF on the Nasdaq 100, the ProShares UltraPro QQQ TQQQ. In my plan, while I might debate the merits of buying AAPL or MSFT for hours, I knew I could immediately buy them both with TQQQ and be rewarded very quickly after the 14% plunge."
Ahahaha, fuckstick bought TQQQ at $70, cuz that's what you do after a random 5-sigma move, right? How many of you dumbasses did the same thing? Don't lie, I see you buying 3/5 on this TQQQ chart:
https://preview.redd.it/9ks35zdla5151.png?width=915&format=png&auto=webp&s=2c90d08494c52a1b874575ee233624e61ac27620
Meanwhile, on 3/3, I answered the question "Where do you see this ending up at in the next couple weeks? I have 3/20s" with "under 30 imo".

Well good fucking job, because a week later on 3/11, TQQQ closed at $61, and it kept going.
Nomura: Market staring into the abyss
"The plunge in US equities yesterday (12 March) pushed weekly returns down to 7.7 standard deviations below the norm. In statistical science, the odds of a greater-than seven-sigma event of this kind are astronomical to the point of being comical (about one such event every 160 billion years).
Let's see what Stephen Mathai-Davis, CFA, CQF, WTF, BBQ, Founder and CEO of Q.ai - Investing Reimagined, a Forbes Company, and a major fucktard has to say at this point:

"Our AI models are telling us to buy SPY (the SPDR S&P500 ETF and a great proxy for US large-cap stocks) but since all models are based on past data, does it really make sense? "
"While it may or may not make sense to buy stocks, it definitely is a good time to sell “volatility.” And yes, you can do it in your brokerage account! Or, you can ask your personal finance advisor about it."
"So what is the takeaway? I don’t know if now is the right time to start buying stocks again but it sure looks like the probabilities are in your favor to say that we are not going to experience another 7 standard deviation move in U.S. Stocks. OTM (out-of-the-money) Put Spreads are a great way to get some bullish exposure to a rally in the SPY while also shorting such rich volatility levels."
Good job, fuckfaces. Y'all bought this one too, admit it. I see you buying on this chart:
https://preview.redd.it/s9344geza5151.png?width=915&format=png&auto=webp&s=ebaef4b1414d901e6dafe354206ba39eb03cb199
Well guess what, by 3/18, a week later, we did get another 5 standard deviation move. TQQQ bottomed on 3/18 at $32.73. Still think that was just luck, punk? You know how many sigmas that was? Over 12 god-damn sigmas. 12 standard deviations. I'd have a much better chance of guessing everyone's buttcoin private key, in a row, on the first try. That's how unlikely that is.
https://preview.redd.it/luz0s3kbb5151.png?width=587&format=png&auto=webp&s=7542973d56c42e13efd3502331ac6cc5aea42630
"Hurr durr you said it's going to 0, so you're retarded because it didn't go to 0" - random_wsb_autist
Yeah, fuckface, because the Fed bailed ‘em out. Remember the $150b “overnight repo” bazooka on 3/17? That’s what that was, a bailout. A bailout for shitty funds and market makers like Trump's handjob buddy Kenny Griffin from Citadel. Why do you think Jamie Dimon had a heart attack in early March? He saw all the dogshit that everyone put on his books.

https://preview.redd.it/8fqvt37ama151.png?width=3711&format=png&auto=webp&s=0b06ee5101685c5274c6641a62ee9eb1a2a3f3ee


Read:
https://dealbreaker.com/2020/01/griffin-no-show-at-white-house
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/11/bank-ceos-convene-in-washington-with-president-trump-on-coronavirus.html
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/914736/market-makers--didn-t-show-up-for-work--macro-risk-ceo-says-914736.html
https://www.chicagobusiness.com/finance-banking/chicago-trading-firms-seek-more-capital
https://www.housingwire.com/articles/did-non-qm-just-disappear-from-the-market/
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-22/bruised-hedge-funds-ask-clients-for-fresh-cash-to-buy-the-dip
https://fin24.com/Markets/Bonds/rand-bonds-rally-after-reserve-bank-intervention-20200320

Yup, everyone got clapped on their stupidly leveraged derivatives books. It seems Citadel is “too big to fail”. On 3/18, the payout on 3/20 TQQQ puts alone if it went to 0 was $468m. And every single TQQQ put expiration would have had to be paid. Tens or hundreds of billions on TQQQ puts alone. I’d bet my ass Citadel was on the hook for a big chunk of those. And that’s just a drop in the bucket compared to all the other blown derivative trades out there.

https://preview.redd.it/9ww27p2qb5151.png?width=2485&format=png&auto=webp&s=78f24265f3ea08fdbb37a4325f15ad9b61b0c694
Y’all still did good, 3/20 closed at $35. That’s $161m/$468m payoff just there. I even called you the bottom on 3/17, when I saw that bailout:

"tinygiraffe21 1 point 2 months ago
Haha when? I’m loading up in 4/17 25 puts"
"dlkdev
Scratch that, helicopter money is here."
"AfgCric 1 point 2 months ago
What does that mean?"
"It means the Fed & Trump are printing trillions with no end in sight. If they go through with this, this was probably the bottom."

"hurr durr, it went lower on 3/18 so 3/17 wasn't the bottom" - random_wsb_autist
Idiot, I have no way of knowing that Billy boy Ackman was going to go on CNBC and cry like a little bitch to make everyone dump, so he can get out of his shorts. Just like I have no way of knowing when the Fed decides to do a bailout. But you react to that, when you see it.
Do you think "Oh no world's ending" and go sell everything? No, dumbass, you try to figure out what Billy's doing. And in this case it was pretty obvious, Billy saw the Fed train coming and wanted to close his shorts. So you give the dude a hand, quick short in and out, and position for Billy dumping his short bags.
Video of Billy & the Fed train

Here's what Billy boy says:
“But if they don’t, and the government takes the right steps, this hedge could be worth zero, and the stock market could go right back up to where it was. So we made the decision to exit.”
https://www.businessinsider.sg/bill-ackman-explains-coronavirus-trade-single-best-all-time-podcast-2020-5
Also, “the single best trade of all time.” my ass, it was only a 100-bagger. I gave y’all a 150-bagger.
So how could I catch that? Because it wasn't random, yo. And I'm here to teach your asses how to try to spot such potential moves. But first, the technical bootcamp.

Chapter III. Mouthbreather's bootcamp on managing a position – THE TECHNICALS

RULE 1. YOU NEVER BUY OPTIONS AT OPEN. You NEVER OVERPAY for an option. You never FOMO into buying too fast. You NEVER EVER NEVER pump the premium on a play.
I saw you fuckers buying over 4k TQQQ 5/22 $45 puts in the first minutes of trading. You pumped the premium to over $0.50 dudes. The play's never going to work if you do that, because you give the market maker free delta, and he's going to hedge that against you. Let me explain simply:

Let's say a put on ticker $X at strike $50 is worth $1, and a put at strike $51 is worth $2.
If you all fomo in at once into the same strike, the market maker algos will just pull the asks higher. If you overpay at $2 for the $50p, the market maker will just buy $51ps for $2 and sell you $50ps for 2$. Or he'll buy longer-dated $50ps and sell you shorter-dated $50ps. Max risk for him is now 0, max gain is $1. You just gave him free downside insurance, so of course he's going to start going long. And you just traded against yourself, congrats.

You need to get in with patience, especially if you see other autists here wanting to go in at the same time. Don't step on each other's toes. You put in an order, and you wait for it to fill for a couple of seconds. If it doesn't fill, AND the price of the option hasn't moved much recently, you can bump the bid $0.01. And you keep doing that a few times. Move your strikes, if needed. Only get a partial fill or don't get a fill at all? You cancel your bid. Don't fucking leave it hanging there, or you're going to put a floor on the price. Let the mm algos chill out and go again later.

RULE 2. WATCH THE TIME. Algos are especially active at x:00, x:02, x:08, x:12, x:30 and x:58. Try not to buy at those times.
RULE 3. YOU USE MULTIPLE BROKERS. Don't just roll with Robinhood, you're just gimping yourself. If you don't have another one, open up a tasty, IB, TD, Schwab, whatever. But for cheap faggy puts (or calls), Robinhood is the best. If you want to make a play for which the other side would think "That's free money!", Robinhood is the best. Because Citadel will snag that free money shit like no other. Seriously, if you don't have a RH account, open one. It's great for making meme plays.

RULE 4. YOU DON'T START A TRADE WITH BIG POSITIONS. Doesn't matter how big or small your bankroll is. If you go all-in, you're just gambling, and the odds are stacked against you. You need to have extra cash to manage your positions. Which leads to
RULE 5. MANAGING YOUR WINNERS: Your position going for you? Good job! Now POUND THAT SHIT! And again. Move your strikes to cheaper puts/calls, and pound again. And again. Snowball those gains.
RULE 6A. POUND THOSE $0.01 PUTS:
So you bought some puts and they’re going down? Well, the moment they reach $0.01, YOU POUND THOSE PUTS (assuming there’s enough time left on them, not shit expiring in 2h). $0.01 puts have amazing risk/return around the time they reach $0.01. This is not as valid for calls. Long explanation why, but the gist of it is this: you know how calls have unlimited upside while puts have limited upside? Well it’s the reverse of that.
RULE 6B. MANAGING YOUR LOSERS:
Your position going against you? Do you close the position, take your loss porn and post it on wsb? WRONG DUMBASS. You manage that by POUNDING THAT SHIT. Again and again. You don't manage losing positions by closing. That removes your gainz when the market turns around. You ever close a position, just to have it turn out it would have been a winner afterwards? Yeah, don't do that. You manage it by opening other positions. Got puts? Buy calls. Got calls? Buy puts. Turn positions into spreads. Buy spreads. Buy the VIX. Sell the VIX. They wanna pin for OPEX? Sell them options. Not enough bankroll to sell naked? Sell spreads. Make them fight you for your money, motherfuckers, don't just give it away for free. When you trade, YOU have the advantage of choosing when and where to engage. The market can only react. That's your edge, so USE IT! Like this:

Example 1:
Initial TQQQ 5/22 position = $5,000. Starts losing? You pound it.

https://preview.redd.it/gq938ty8e5151.png?width=944&format=png&auto=webp&s=734ab7ed517f0e6822bfaaed5765d1272de398d1
Total pounded in 5/22 TQQQ puts = $10,824. Unfortunately expired worthless (but also goes to show I'm not selling you puts, dickwads)
Then the autists show up:
"Hahaha you lost all your money nice job you fucking idiot why do you even live?" - cscqb4
Wrong fuckface. You see the max pain at SPX 2975 & OPEX pin coming? Sell them some calls or puts (or spreads).

https://preview.redd.it/7nv23fr41a151.jpg?width=750&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=14a8879c975646ffbfe2942ca1982bfabfcf90df
Sold 9x5/20 SPX [email protected], bam +$6,390. Still wanna pin? Well have some 80x5/22 TQQQ $80cs, bam anotha +$14,700.

https://preview.redd.it/1iqtpmc71a151.jpg?width=750&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=df9b954131b0877f4acc43038b4a5a4acf544237
+$21,090 - $10,824 = +$10,266 => Turned that shit into a +94.85% gain.

.cscqb4 rn

You have a downside position, but market going up or nowhere? You play that as well. At least make some money back, if not profit.

Example 2:

5/22, long weekend coming right? So you use your brain & try to predict what could happen over the 3-day weekend. Hmm, 3 day weekend, well you should expect either a shitty theta-burn or maybe the pajama traders will try to pooomp that shite on the low volume. Well make your play. I bet on the shitty theta burn, but could be the other, idk, so make a small play.

Sold some ES_F spreads (for those unaware, ES is a 50x multiplier, so 1 SPX = 2 ES = 10 SPY, approximately). -47x 2955/2960 bear call spreads for $2.5. Max gain is $2.5, max loss is 2960-2955 = $5. A double-or-nothing basically. That's $5,875 in premium, max loss = 2x premium = $11,750.
Well, today comes around and futures are pumping. Up to 3,014 now. Do you just roll over? You think I'm gonna sit and take it up the ass? Nah bros that's not how you trade, you fucking fight them. How?
I have:
47x 2960 calls
-47x 2955 calls

Pajama traders getting all up in my grill? Well then I buy back 1 of the 2955 calls. Did that shit yesterday when futures were a little over 2980, around 2982-ish. Paid $34.75, initially shorted at $16.95, so booked a -$892 loss, for now. But now what do I have?

46x 2955/2960 bear calls
1x 2960 long call

So the fuckers can pump it. In fact, the harder they pump it, the more I make. Each $2.5 move up in the futures covers the max loss for 1 spread. With SPX now at ~3015, that call is $55 ITM. Covers 24/46 contracts rn. If they wanna run it up, at 3070 it's break-even. Over that, it's profit. I'll sell them some bear call spreads over 3050 if they run it there too. They gonna dump it? well under 2960 it's profit time again. They wanna do a shitty pin at 3000 today? Well then I'll sell them some theta there.
Later edit: that was written yesterday. Got out with a loss of only $1.5k out of the max $5,875. Not bad.
And that, my dudes, is how you manage a position.

RULE 7 (ESPECIALLY FOR BEARS). YOU DON'T KEEP EXTRA CASH IN YOUR BROKER ACCOUNT. You don't do it with Robinhood, because it's a shitty dumpsterfire of a broker. But you don't do it with other brokers either. Pull that shit out. Preferably to a bank that doesn't play in the markets either, use a credit union or some shit. Why? Because you're giving the market free liquidity. Free margin loans. Squeeze that shit out, make them work for it. Your individual cash probably doesn't make a dent, but a million autists with an extra $1200 trumpbucks means $1.2b. That's starting to move the needle. You wanna make a play, use instant deposits. And that way you don't lose your shit when your crappy ass broker or bank gets its ass blown up on derivative trades. Even if it's FDIC or SIPC insured, it's gonna take time until you see that money again.


Chapter IV. BUSTING YOUR RETARDED MYTHS

MYTH 1 - STONKS ONLY GO UP

Do you think the market can go up forever? Do you think stOnKs oNLy Go uP because Fed brrr? Do you think SPX will be at 5000 by the end of the month? Do you think $1.5 trillion is a good entry point for stonks like AAPL or MSFT? Do you want to buy garbage like Hertz or American Airlines because it's cheap? Did you buy USO at the bottom and are now proud of yourself for making $2? Well, this section is for you!
Let's clear up the misconception that stonks only go up while Fed brrrs.

What's your target for the SPX top? Think 3500 by the end of the year? 3500 by September? 4000? 4500? 5000? Doesn't matter, you can plug in your own variables.

Let's say SPX only goes up, a moderate 0.5% each period as a compounded avg. (i.e. up a bit down a bit whatever, doesn't matter as long as at the end of your period, if you look back and do the math, you'll get that number). Let's call this variable BRRR = 0.005.

Can you do the basic math to calculate the value at the end of x periods? Or did you drop out in 5th grade? Doesn't matter if not, I'll teach you.


Let's say our period is one week. That is, SPX goes up on average 0.5% each week on Fed BRRR:
2950 * (1.005^x), where x is the number of periods (weeks in this case)

So, after 1 month, you have: 2950 * (1.005^4) = 3009
After 2 months: 2950 * (1.005^8) = 3070
End of the year? 2950 * (1.005^28) = 3392

Now clearly, we're already at 3015 on the futures, so we're moving way faster than that. More like at a speed of BRRR = 1%/wk

2950 * (1.01^4) = 3069
2950 * (1.01^8) = 3194
2950 * (1.01^28) = 3897


Better, but still slower than a lot of permabulls would expect. In fact, some legit fucks are seriously predicting SPX 4000-4500 by September. Like this dude, David Hunter, "Contrarian Macro Strategist w/40+ years on Wall Street". IDIOTIC.
https://twitter.com/DaveHcontrarian/status/1263066368414568448

That'd be 2950 * (BRRR^12) = 4000 => BRRR = 1.0257 and 2950 * (BRRR^12) = 4500 => BRRR = 1.0358, respectively.

Here's why that can't happen, no matter the amount of FED BRRR: Leverage. Compounded Leverage.

There's currently over $100b in leveraged etfs with a 2.5x avg. leverage. And that's just the ones I managed to tally, there's a lot of dogshit small ones on top of that. TQQQ alone is now at almost $6b in AUM (topped in Fed at a little over $7b).

Now, let's try to estimate what happens to TQQQ's AUM when BRRR = 1.0257. 3XBRRR = 1.0771. Take it at 3XBRRR = 1.07 to account for slippage in a medium-volatility environment and ignore the fact that the Nasdaq-100 would go up more than SPX anyway.

$6,000,000,000 * (1.07^4) = $7,864,776,060
$6,000,000,000 * (1.07^8) = $10,309,100,000
$6,000,000,000 * (1.07^12) = $13,513,100,000
$6,000,000,000 * (1.07^28) = $39,893,000,000.

What if BRRR = 1.0358? => 3XBRR = 1.1074. Take 3XBRRR = 1.10.
$6,000,000,000 * (1.1^4) = $8,784,600,000
$6,000,000,000 * (1.1^8) = $12,861,500,000
$6,000,000,000 * (1.1^12) = $18,830,600,000
$6,000,000,000 * (1.1^28) = $86,526,000,000

And this would have to get 3x leveraged every day. And this is just for TQQQ.

Let's do an estimation for all leveraged funds. $100b AUM, 2.5 avg. leverage factor, BRRR = 1.0257 => 2.5BRRR = 1.06425

$100b * (1.06^4) = $128.285b
$100b * (1.06^8) = $159.385b
$100b * (1.06^12) = $201.22b
$100b * (1.06^28) = $511.169b

That'd be $1.25 trillion sloshing around each day. And the market would have to lose each respective amount of cash into these leveraged funds. Think the market can do that? You can play around with your own variables. But understand that this is just a small part of the whole picture, many other factors go into this. It's a way to put a simple upper limit on an assumption, to check if it's reasonable.

In the long run, it doesn't matter if the Fed goes BRRR, if TQQQ takes in it's share of 3XBRRR. And the Fed can't go 3XBRRR, because then TQQQ would take in 9XBRRR. And on top of this, you have a whole pile of leveraged derivatives on top of these leveraged things. Watch (or rewatch) this: Selena Gomez & Richard H. Thaler Explaining Synthetic CDO through BLACKJACK

My general point, at the mouth-breather level, is that Fed BRRR cannot be infinite, because leverage.
And these leveraged ETFs are flawed instruments in the first place. It didn't matter when they started out. TQQQ and SQQQ started out at $8m each. For the banks providing the swaps, for the market providing the futures contracts, whatever counter-party to whatever instrument they would use, that was fine. Because it balanced out. When TQQQ made a million, SQQQ lost a million (minus a small spread, which was the bank's profit). Bank was happy, in the long run things would even out. Slippage and spreads and fees would make them money. But then something happened. Stonks only went up. And leveraged ETFs got bigger and more and more popular.
And so, TQQQ ended up being $6-7b, while SQQQ was at $1b. And the same goes for all the other ETFs. Long leveraged ETF AUM became disproportionate to short AUM. And it matters a whole fucking lot. Because if you think of the casino, TQQQ walks up every day and says "I'd like to put $18b on red", while SQQQ walks up and says "I'd only like to put $3b on black". And that, in turn, forces the banks providing the swaps to either eat shit with massive losses, or go out and hedge. Probably a mix of both. But it doesn't matter if the banks are hedged, someone else is on the other side of those hedges anyway. Someone's eating a loss. Can think of it as "The Market", in general, eating the loss. And there's only so much loss the market can eat before it craps itself.

If you were a time traveller, how much money do you think you could make by trading derivatives? Do you think you could make $20 trillion? You know the future prices after all... But no, you couldn't. There isn't enough money out there to pay you. So you'd move the markets by blowing them up. Call it the Time-travelling WSB Autist Paradox.

If you had a bucket with a hole in the bottom, even if you poured an infinite amount of water into it, it would never be full. Because there's a LIQUIDITY SINK, just like there is one in the markets.
And that, my mouth-breathing friends, is the reason why FED BRRR cannot be infinite. Or alternatively, "STONKS MUST GO BOTH UP AND DOWN".

MYTH 2 - YOU CAN'T TIME THE MARKET

On Jan 14, 2020, I predicted this: Assuming that corona doesn't become a problem, "AAPL: Jan 28 $328.3, Jan 31 $316.5, April 1 $365.7, May 1 $386, July 1 $429 December 31 $200."
Now take a look at the AAPL chart in January. After earnings AAPL peaked at $327.85. On 1/31, after the 1st hour of trading, when the big boys make moves, it was at $315.63. Closed 1/31 at $309.51. Ya think I pulled this one out of my ass too?
Yes you can time it. Flows, motherfucker, flows. Money flow moves everything. And these days, we have a whole lot of RETARDED FLOW. Can't even call it dumb flow, because it literally doesn't think. Stuff like:

  • ETF flows. If MSFT goes up and AAPL goes down, part of that flow is going to move from AAPL to MSFT. Even if MSFT flash-crashes up to $1000, the ETF will still "buy". Because it's passive.
  • Option settlement flows. Once options expire, money is going to flow from one side to another, and that my friends is accurately predictable from the data.
  • Index rebalancing flows
  • Buyback flows
  • 401k passive flows
  • Carry trade flows
  • Tax day flows
  • Flows of people front-running the flows

And many many others. Spot the flow, and you get an edge. How could I predict where AAPL would be after earnings within 50 cents and then reverse down to $316 2 days later? FLOWS MOTHERFUCKER FLOWS. The market was so quiet in that period, that is was possible to precisely figure out where it ended up. Why the dump after? Well, AAPL earnings (The 8-K) come out on a Wednesday. The next morning, after market opens the 10-Q comes out. And that 10-Q contains a very important nugget of information: the latest number of outstanding shares. But AAPL buybacks are regular as fuck. You can predict the outstanding shares before the market gets the 10-Q. And that gives you EDGE. Which leads to

MYTH 3 - BUYBACKS DON'T MATTER

Are you one of those mouthbreathers that parrots the phrase "buybacks are just a tax-efficient way to return capital to shareholders"? Well sit the fuck down, I have news for you. First bit of news, you're dumb as shit. Second bit:

On 1/28, AAPL's market cap is closing_price x free_float_outstanding_shares. But that's not the REAL MARKET CAP. Because the number of outstanding shares is OLD AS FUCK. When the latest number comes out, the market cap changes instantly. And ETFs start moving, and hedges start being changed, and so on.

"But ETFs won't change the number of shares they hold, they will still hold the same % of AAPL in the index" - random_wsb_autist

Oh my fucking god you're dumb as fuck. FLOWS change. And the next day, when TQQQ comes by and puts its massive $18b dong on the table, the market will hedge that differently. And THAT CAN BE PREDICTED. That's why AAPL was exactly at $316 1 hour after the market opened on 1/31.

So, what can you use to spot moves? Let me show you:
Market topped on 2/19. Here’s SPY. I even marked interesting dates for you with vertical lines.

https://preview.redd.it/7agm171eh5151.png?width=3713&format=png&auto=webp&s=d94b90dcd634c8dc688925585bf0a02c3299f71b
Nobody could have seen it coming, right? WRONG AGAIN. Here:

https://preview.redd.it/i1kdp3cgh5151.png?width=3713&format=png&auto=webp&s=7a1e086e9217846547efd3b6c5249f4a7ebe6d9e
In fact, JPYUSD gave you two whole days to see it. Those are NOT normal JPYUSD moves. But hey maybe it’s just a fluke? Wrong again.

https://preview.redd.it/fsyhenckh5151.png?width=3693&format=png&auto=webp&s=03200e10b008257ae15d40b474c4cf4d8c23670f
Forex showed you that all over the place. Why? FLOWS MOTHERFUCKER FLOWS. When everything moves like that, it means the market needs CASH. It doesn’t matter why, but remember people pulling cash out of ATMs all over the world? Companies drawing massive revolvers? Just understand what this flow means.
The reversal:
https://preview.redd.it/4xe97l0oh5151.png?width=1336&format=png&auto=webp&s=07aaa93f6b1d8f542101e40e431edccbc109918f
https://preview.redd.it/v6i0pdmoh5151.png?width=1338&format=png&auto=webp&s=74d5589961db2f978d4d582e6d7c58a85f6305f9
But it wasn’t just forex. Gold showed it to you as well. Bonds showed it to you as well.
https://preview.redd.it/40j53u8th5151.png?width=3711&format=png&auto=webp&s=fe39ab51321d0f98149d33e33253e69f96c48e23
Even god damn buttcoin showed it to you.
https://preview.redd.it/43lvafhvh5151.png?width=3705&format=png&auto=webp&s=1ef53283cbc0fb97f71c1ba935c0bd747809636e
And they all did it for 2 days before the move hit equities.

Chapter V. LIQUIDITY NUKE INBOUND
You see all these bankruptcies that happened so far, and all the ones that are going to follow? Do you think that’s just dogshit companies and it won’t have major effects on anything outside them? WRONG.
Because there’s a lot of leveraged instruments on top of those equities. When the stock goes to 0, all those outstanding puts across all expirations get instantly paid.
Understand that Feb-March was a liquidity MOAB. But this will end with a liquidity nuke.
Here’s just HTZ for example: $239,763,550 in outstanding puts. Just on a single dogshit small-cap company (this thing was like $400m mkt. cap last week).
And that’s just the options on the equity. There’s also instruments on etfs that hold HTZ, on the bonds, on the ETFs that hold their bonds, swaps, warrants, whatever. It’s a massive pile of leverage.
Then there’s also the ripple effects. Were you holding a lot of HTZ in your brokerage margin account? Well guess what big boi, when that gaps to 0 you get a margin call, and then you become a liquidity drain. Holding long calls? 0. Bonds 0. DOG SHIT!
And the market instantly goes from holding $x in assets (HTZ equity / bonds / calls) to holding many multiples of x in LIABILITIES (puts gone wrong, margin loans, derivatives books, revolvers, all that crap). And it doesn’t matter if the Fed buys crap like HTZ bonds. You short them some. Because when it hits 0, it’s no longer about supply and demand. You get paid full price, straight from Jerome’s printer. Is the Fed going to buy every blown up derivative too? Because that's what they'd have to do.
Think of liquidity as a car. The faster it goes, the harder it becomes to go even faster. At some point, you can only go faster by driving off a cliff. THE SQUEEZE. But you stop instantly when you hit the ground eventually. And that’s what shit’s doing all over the place right now.
Rewatch: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3hG4X5iTK8M
And just like that fucker, “I’m standing in front of a burning house, and I’m offering you fire insurance on it.”

Don’t baghold!
Now is not the time to baghold junk. Take your cash. Not the time to buy cheap crap. You don’t buy Hertz. You don’t buy USO. You don’t buy airlines, or cruises, or GE, or motherfucking Disney. And if you have it, dump that shit.
And the other dogshit that’s at ATH, congrats you’re in the green. Now you take your profits and fucking dump that shit. I’m talking shit like garbage SaaS, app shit, AI shit, etc. Garbage like MDB, OKTA, SNAP, TWLO, ZM, CHGG etc.
And you dump those garbage ass leveraged ETFs. SQQQ, TQQQ, whatever, they’re all dogshit now.
The leverage MUST unwind. And once that’s done, some of you will no longer be among us if you don’t listen. A lot of leveraged ETFs will be gone. Even some non-leveraged ETFs will be gone. Some brokers will be gone, some market makers will be gone, hell maybe even some big bank has to go under. I can’t know which ones will go poof, but I can guarantee you that some will. Another reason to diversify your shit. There’s a reason papa Warrant Buffet dumped his bags, don’t think you’re smarter than him. He may be senile, but he’s still a snake.
And once the unwind is done, THEN you buy whatever cheap dogshit’s still standing.
Got it? Good.
You feel ready to play yet? Alright, so you catch a move. Or I post a move and you wanna play it. You put on a small position. When it’s going your way, YOU POUND DAT SHIT. Still going? Well RUSH B CYKA BLYAT AND PLANT THE GOD DAMN 3/20 $30p BOMB.

Chapter VI - The mouthbreather-proof play - THE AKIMBO
Still a dumbass that can’t make a play? Still want to go long? Well then, I got a dumbass-proof trade for you. I present to you THE AKIMBO:

STEP 1. You play this full blast. You need some real Russian hardbass to get you in the right mood for trading, cyka.
STEP 2. Split your play money in 3. Remember to keep extra bankroll for POUNDING THAT SHIT.
STEP 3. Use 1/3 of your cash to buy SQQQ 9/18 $5p, pay $0.05. Not more than $0.10.
STEP 4. Use 1/3 of your cash to buy TQQQ 9/18 $20p, pay around $0.45. Alternatively, if you’re feeling adventurous, 7/17 $35p’s for around $0.5.
STEP 5. Use 1/3 of your cash to buy VIX PUT SPREADS 9/15 $21/$20 spread for around $0.15, no more than $0.25. That is, you BUY the 21p and SELL the 20p. Only using Robinhood and don’t have the VIX? What did I just tell you? Well fine, use UVXY then. Just make sure you don’t overpay.


Chapter VII - Quick hints for non-mouthbreathers
Quick tips, cuz apparently I'm out of space, there's a 40k character limit on reddit posts. Who knew?

  1. Proshares is dogshit. If you don't understand the point in my last post, do this: download https://accounts.profunds.com/etfdata/ByFund/SQQQ-historical_nav.csv and https://accounts.profunds.com/etfdata/ByFund/SQQQ-psdlyhld.csv. Easier to see than with TQQQ. AUM: 1,174,940,072. Add up the value of all the t-bills = 1,686,478,417.49 and "Net other assets / cash". It should equal the AUM, but you get 2,861,340,576. Why? Because that line should read: NET CASH = -$511,538,344.85
  2. Major index rebalancing June 22.
  3. Watch the violent forex moves.
  4. 6/25 will be red. Don't ask, play a spread, bag a 2x-er.
  5. 6/19 will be red.
  6. Not settled yet, but a good chance 5/28 is red.
  7. Front run the rebalance. Front-run the front-runners of the rebalance too. TQQQ puts.
  8. Major retard flow in financials yesterday. Downward pressure now. GS 180 next weeks looks good.
  9. Buy leaps puts on dogshit bond ETFs (check holdings for dogshit)
  10. Buy TLT 1/15/2021 $85ps for cheap, sell over $1 when the Fed stops the ass rape, rinse and repeat
  11. TQQQ flow looks good:
https://preview.redd.it/untvykuxea151.jpg?width=750&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a0a38c0acb088ebff689d043e48466eb76d38e2f

Good luck. Dr. Retard TQQQ Burry out.
submitted by dlkdev to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

H1 Backtest of ParallaxFX's BBStoch system

Disclaimer: None of this is financial advice. I have no idea what I'm doing. Please do your own research or you will certainly lose money. I'm not a statistician, data scientist, well-seasoned trader, or anything else that would qualify me to make statements such as the below with any weight behind them. Take them for the incoherent ramblings that they are.
TL;DR at the bottom for those not interested in the details.
This is a bit of a novel, sorry about that. It was mostly for getting my own thoughts organized, but if even one person reads the whole thing I will feel incredibly accomplished.

Background

For those of you not familiar, please see the various threads on this trading system here. I can't take credit for this system, all glory goes to ParallaxFX!
I wanted to see how effective this system was at H1 for a couple of reasons: 1) My current broker is TD Ameritrade - their Forex minimum is a mini lot, and I don't feel comfortable enough yet with the risk to trade mini lots on the higher timeframes(i.e. wider pip swings) that ParallaxFX's system uses, so I wanted to see if I could scale it down. 2) I'm fairly impatient, so I don't like to wait days and days with my capital tied up just to see if a trade is going to win or lose.
This does mean it requires more active attention since you are checking for setups once an hour instead of once a day or every 4-6 hours, but the upside is that you trade more often this way so you end up winning or losing faster and moving onto the next trade. Spread does eat more of the trade this way, but I'll cover this in my data below - it ends up not being a problem.
I looked at data from 6/11 to 7/3 on all pairs with a reasonable spread(pairs listed at bottom above the TL;DR). So this represents about 3-4 weeks' worth of trading. I used mark(mid) price charts. Spreadsheet link is below for anyone that's interested.

System Details

I'm pretty much using ParallaxFX's system textbook, but since there are a few options in his writeups, I'll include all the discretionary points here:

And now for the fun. Results!

As you can see, a higher target ended up with higher profit despite a much lower winrate. This is partially just how things work out with profit targets in general, but there's an additional point to consider in our case: the spread. Since we are trading on a lower timeframe, there is less overall price movement and thus the spread takes up a much larger percentage of the trade than it would if you were trading H4, Daily or Weekly charts. You can see exactly how much it accounts for each trade in my spreadsheet if you're interested. TDA does not have the best spreads, so you could probably improve these results with another broker.
EDIT: I grabbed typical spreads from other brokers, and turns out while TDA is pretty competitive on majors, their minors/crosses are awful! IG beats them by 20-40% and Oanda beats them 30-60%! Using IG spreads for calculations increased profits considerably (another 5% on top) and Oanda spreads increased profits massively (another 15%!). Definitely going to be considering another broker than TDA for this strategy. Plus that'll allow me to trade micro-lots, so I can be more granular(and thus accurate) with my position sizing and compounding.

A Note on Spread

As you can see in the data, there were scenarios where the spread was 80% of the overall size of the trade(the size of the confirmation candle that you draw your fibonacci retracements over), which would obviously cut heavily into your profits.
Removing any trades where the spread is more than 50% of the trade width improved profits slightly without removing many trades, but this is almost certainly just coincidence on a small sample size. Going below 40% and even down to 30% starts to cut out a lot of trades for the less-common pairs, but doesn't actually change overall profits at all(~1% either way).
However, digging all the way down to 25% starts to really make some movement. Profit at the -161.8% TP level jumps up to 37.94% if you filter out anything with a spread that is more than 25% of the trade width! And this even keeps the sample size fairly large at 187 total trades.
You can get your profits all the way up to 48.43% at the -161.8% TP level if you filter all the way down to only trades where spread is less than 15% of the trade width, however your sample size gets much smaller at that point(108 trades) so I'm not sure I would trust that as being accurate in the long term.
Overall based on this data, I'm going to only take trades where the spread is less than 25% of the trade width. This may bias my trades more towards the majors, which would mean a lot more correlated trades as well(more on correlation below), but I think it is a reasonable precaution regardless.

Time of Day

Time of day had an interesting effect on trades. In a totally predictable fashion, a vast majority of setups occurred during the London and New York sessions: 5am-12pm Eastern. However, there was one outlier where there were many setups on the 11PM bar - and the winrate was about the same as the big hours in the London session. No idea why this hour in particular - anyone have any insight? That's smack in the middle of the Tokyo/Sydney overlap, not at the open or close of either.
On many of the hour slices I have a feeling I'm just dealing with small number statistics here since I didn't have a lot of data when breaking it down by individual hours. But here it is anyway - for all TP levels, these three things showed up(all in Eastern time):
I don't have any reason to think these timeframes would maintain this behavior over the long term. They're almost certainly meaningless. EDIT: When you de-dup highly correlated trades, the number of trades in these timeframes really drops, so from this data there is no reason to think these timeframes would be any different than any others in terms of winrate.
That being said, these time frames work out for me pretty well because I typically sleep 12am-7am Eastern time. So I automatically avoid the 5am-6am timeframe, and I'm awake for the majority of this system's setups.

Moving stops up to breakeven

This section goes against everything I know and have ever heard about trade management. Please someone find something wrong with my data. I'd love for someone to check my formulas, but I realize that's a pretty insane time commitment to ask of a bunch of strangers.
Anyways. What I found was that for these trades moving stops up...basically at all...actually reduced the overall profitability.
One of the data points I collected while charting was where the price retraced back to after hitting a certain milestone. i.e. once the price hit the -61.8% profit level, how far back did it retrace before hitting the -100% profit level(if at all)? And same goes for the -100% profit level - how far back did it retrace before hitting the -161.8% profit level(if at all)?
Well, some complex excel formulas later and here's what the results appear to be. Emphasis on appears because I honestly don't believe it. I must have done something wrong here, but I've gone over it a hundred times and I can't find anything out of place.
Now, you might think exactly what I did when looking at these numbers: oof, the spread killed us there right? Because even when you move your SL to 0%, you still end up paying the spread, so it's not truly "breakeven". And because we are trading on a lower timeframe, the spread can be pretty hefty right?
Well even when I manually modified the data so that the spread wasn't subtracted(i.e. "Breakeven" was truly +/- 0), things don't look a whole lot better, and still way worse than the passive trade management method of leaving your stops in place and letting it run. And that isn't even a realistic scenario because to adjust out the spread you'd have to move your stoploss inside the candle edge by at least the spread amount, meaning it would almost certainly be triggered more often than in the data I collected(which was purely based on the fib levels and mark price). Regardless, here are the numbers for that scenario:
From a literal standpoint, what I see behind this behavior is that 44 of the 69 breakeven trades(65%!) ended up being profitable to -100% after retracing deeply(but not to the original SL level), which greatly helped offset the purely losing trades better than the partial profit taken at -61.8%. And 36 went all the way back to -161.8% after a deep retracement without hitting the original SL. Anyone have any insight into this? Is this a problem with just not enough data? It seems like enough trades that a pattern should emerge, but again I'm no expert.
I also briefly looked at moving stops to other lower levels (78.6%, 61.8%, 50%, 38.2%, 23.6%), but that didn't improve things any. No hard data to share as I only took a quick look - and I still might have done something wrong overall.
The data is there to infer other strategies if anyone would like to dig in deep(more explanation on the spreadsheet below). I didn't do other combinations because the formulas got pretty complicated and I had already answered all the questions I was looking to answer.

2-Candle vs Confirmation Candle Stops

Another interesting point is that the original system has the SL level(for stop entries) just at the outer edge of the 2-candle pattern that makes up the system. Out of pure laziness, I set up my stops just based on the confirmation candle. And as it turns out, that is much a much better way to go about it.
Of the 60 purely losing trades, only 9 of them(15%) would go on to be winners with stops on the 2-candle formation. Certainly not enough to justify the extra loss and/or reduced profits you are exposing yourself to in every single other trade by setting a wider SL.
Oddly, in every single scenario where the wider stop did save the trade, it ended up going all the way to the -161.8% profit level. Still, not nearly worth it.

Correlated Trades

As I've said many times now, I'm really not qualified to be doing an analysis like this. This section in particular.
Looking at shared currency among the pairs traded, 74 of the trades are correlated. Quite a large group, but it makes sense considering the sort of moves we're looking for with this system.
This means you are opening yourself up to more risk if you were to trade on every signal since you are technically trading with the same underlying sentiment on each different pair. For example, GBP/USD and AUD/USD moving together almost certainly means it's due to USD moving both pairs, rather than GBP and AUD both moving the same size and direction coincidentally at the same time. So if you were to trade both signals, you would very likely win or lose both trades - meaning you are actually risking double what you'd normally risk(unless you halve both positions which can be a good option, and is discussed in ParallaxFX's posts and in various other places that go over pair correlation. I won't go into detail about those strategies here).
Interestingly though, 17 of those apparently correlated trades ended up with different wins/losses.
Also, looking only at trades that were correlated, winrate is 83%/70%/55% (for the three TP levels).
Does this give some indication that the same signal on multiple pairs means the signal is stronger? That there's some strong underlying sentiment driving it? Or is it just a matter of too small a sample size? The winrate isn't really much higher than the overall winrates, so that makes me doubt it is statistically significant.
One more funny tidbit: EUCAD netted the lowest overall winrate: 30% to even the -61.8% TP level on 10 trades. Seems like that is just a coincidence and not enough data, but dang that's a sucky losing streak.
EDIT: WOW I spent some time removing correlated trades manually and it changed the results quite a bit. Some thoughts on this below the results. These numbers also include the other "What I will trade" filters. I added a new worksheet to my data to show what I ended up picking.
To do this, I removed correlated trades - typically by choosing those whose spread had a lower % of the trade width since that's objective and something I can see ahead of time. Obviously I'd like to only keep the winning trades, but I won't know that during the trade. This did reduce the overall sample size down to a level that I wouldn't otherwise consider to be big enough, but since the results are generally consistent with the overall dataset, I'm not going to worry about it too much.
I may also use more discretionary methods(support/resistance, quality of indecision/confirmation candles, news/sentiment for the pairs involved, etc) to filter out correlated trades in the future. But as I've said before I'm going for a pretty mechanical system.
This brought the 3 TP levels and even the breakeven strategies much closer together in overall profit. It muted the profit from the high R:R strategies and boosted the profit from the low R:R strategies. This tells me pair correlation was skewing my data quite a bit, so I'm glad I dug in a little deeper. Fortunately my original conclusion to use the -161.8 TP level with static stops is still the winner by a good bit, so it doesn't end up changing my actions.
There were a few times where MANY (6-8) correlated pairs all came up at the same time, so it'd be a crapshoot to an extent. And the data showed this - often then won/lost together, but sometimes they did not. As an arbitrary rule, the more correlations, the more trades I did end up taking(and thus risking). For example if there were 3-5 correlations, I might take the 2 "best" trades given my criteria above. 5+ setups and I might take the best 3 trades, even if the pairs are somewhat correlated.
I have no true data to back this up, but to illustrate using one example: if AUD/JPY, AUD/USD, CAD/JPY, USD/CAD all set up at the same time (as they did, along with a few other pairs on 6/19/20 9:00 AM), can you really say that those are all the same underlying movement? There are correlations between the different correlations, and trying to filter for that seems rough. Although maybe this is a known thing, I'm still pretty green to Forex - someone please enlighten me if so! I might have to look into this more statistically, but it would be pretty complex to analyze quantitatively, so for now I'm going with my gut and just taking a few of the "best" trades out of the handful.
Overall, I'm really glad I went further on this. The boosting of the B/E strategies makes me trust my calculations on those more since they aren't so far from the passive management like they were with the raw data, and that really had me wondering what I did wrong.

What I will trade

Putting all this together, I am going to attempt to trade the following(demo for a bit to make sure I have the hang of it, then for keeps):
Looking at the data for these rules, test results are:
I'll be sure to let everyone know how it goes!

Other Technical Details

Raw Data

Here's the spreadsheet for anyone that'd like it. (EDIT: Updated some of the setups from the last few days that have fully played out now. I also noticed a few typos, but nothing major that would change the overall outcomes. Regardless, I am currently reviewing every trade to ensure they are accurate.UPDATE: Finally all done. Very few corrections, no change to results.)
I have some explanatory notes below to help everyone else understand the spiraled labyrinth of a mind that put the spreadsheet together.

Insanely detailed spreadsheet notes

For you real nerds out there. Here's an explanation of what each column means:

Pairs

  1. AUD/CAD
  2. AUD/CHF
  3. AUD/JPY
  4. AUD/NZD
  5. AUD/USD
  6. CAD/CHF
  7. CAD/JPY
  8. CHF/JPY
  9. EUAUD
  10. EUCAD
  11. EUCHF
  12. EUGBP
  13. EUJPY
  14. EUNZD
  15. EUUSD
  16. GBP/AUD
  17. GBP/CAD
  18. GBP/CHF
  19. GBP/JPY
  20. GBP/NZD
  21. GBP/USD
  22. NZD/CAD
  23. NZD/CHF
  24. NZD/JPY
  25. NZD/USD
  26. USD/CAD
  27. USD/CHF
  28. USD/JPY

TL;DR

Based on the reasonable rules I discovered in this backtest:
submitted by ForexBorex to Forex [link] [comments]

Part II - 10 Minute/Day Trading Strategy

Part II - 10 Minute/Day Trading Strategy
Access Part I here: https://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/h0iwbu/part_i_my_10_minuteday_trading_strategy/
Welcome to Part II of this ongoing series. How many parts will there be? No idea. At least 4-5, I guess. I'd rather have this broken down into digestible chunks than just fire hose you with information.
Part I was really just a primer. If I'm using the whole baking a cake analogy, then in Part I we covered what kind of cake we're baking. I will not cover in this post where we look for entries and exits, that's coming next. Part II is going to cover what ingredients we need and why we need those ingredients in greater detail.
What Kind Of Strategy Is This Again?It's my 10 minutes per day, trading strategy. I think the beauty of this strategy is that it allows you to take a good number of trader per week without having to commit an inordinate amount of time to the screens. This is both a mean reversion and trend-continuation based strategy. It is dead simple to learn and apply. I'd expect a 10 year old to be able to make money with this.
The List Of Ingredients & Why We Use These Particular Ingredients
*I will have an image at the end of the post showing a textbook long and short setup*
Bollinger Bands: Bollinger Bands (BB) have a base line (standard is the 20SMA, which is also what we will use for this strategy) and two other trend lines (known as the upper Bollinger band [UBB] and lower Bollinger band [LBB]) plotted 2 standard deviations away from the 20SMA. The idea behind BB is deviously simple - the vast majority of price action, approx. 90%, takes place in between the two bands. In other words, when price trades off the UBB or LBB, you could consider prices to be overbought/oversold. However, just because something is OVERbought does NOT mean its run is OVER. Therefore we need additional tools to make sure we are using the BB as effectively as possible. TLDR: BB help contextualize where to look for our technical setups using this strategy. Finding the candle/bar pattern is not enough. We need to make sure the setup is in the 'right' part of the chart. We accomplish that using the BB.
Stochastic Oscillator: The Stochastic Oscillator (Stochs) is a secondary momentum indicator. Because it is an oscillator that means the signals it generates are range-bound between 0 and 100. There are tons of momentum indicators out there. Theoretically you could swap out the Stochs for RSI or MACD. My hunch is that you won't see a measurable statistical difference in performance if you do. So why Stochs? Because I like the fact you have the %K and %D lines (you can think of them as moving averages) and the fact that the %K and %D lines crossover is a helpful visual aid. Like any other momentum indicator, the Stochs will generate overbought and oversold signals. We use the Stochs to help back up what the BB are telling us. If price is trading at, or even broken out of, the UBB and Stochs are also veeeery overbought that can be potentially useful information. It doesn't mean we have a trade necessarily, but it is a helpful piece of data.
Fibonacci Retracement & Extension Tool: This tool is OPTIONAL. The only reason I use this tool for this strategy is to integrate a mechanistic means of entry and exit. In other words, we can use fibonacci levels to place limit orders for entry and profit taking, and a stop order to get us out for our pre-defined risk allocation to each particular trade. If you DON'T want to use the fibs, that is perfectly okay. It just means you will add a more discretionary layer to this strategy
Candlestick/Bar Patterns: There isn't a whole lot to say here. We look for ONE formation over, and over, and over again. An indecision bar (small body, doesn't close on its highs or lows) followed by the setup bar which is an outside bar or an engulfing bar. It doesn't particularly matter if the setup bar is an engulfing bar or outside bar. What matters is that for a long trade the setup bar makes a HIGHER HIGH and has a HIGHER CLOSE relative to the indecision bar. The opposite for a short trade setup. The bar formation is what ultimately serves as the trigger for placing orders to take a trade.
*MOVING ON* Now We Get Into The Setup Itself:There are 3 places where we look for trades using this strategy:
  1. Short off the UBB (Here we want to see Stochastics overbought and crossing down. Bearish divergence is even better)
  2. Long off the LBB (Here we want to see Stochastics oversold and crossing up. Bullish divergence is even better)
  3. Long/Short off the Middle Bollinger Band (Here if you are looking for a short trade off the MBB you ideally want Stochs overbought. Vice versa for a long trade. NOTE: Often when taking trades off the MBB, Stochs WON'T go overbought/oversold. Because this doesn't happen often, I don't let it stop me from taking trades off the MBB.)
The actual setup is very simple and straightforward. We look for our candle/bar formation in conjunction with points 1 through 3 from the above.
There will be other nuances I will cover in terms of how to make the strategy more effective in Part 3. For example, I will go into much more detail about how the shape of the BB can tell us a lot about whether a currency pair is likely to reverse or not. I will also cover how to gauge the strength of the setup candle and a few other tips and tricks.
Technical Nuances: You can overlay a lot of other traditional technical analysis on top of the above. For example you can look for short trades off the UBB in conjunction with a prior broken support level that you now expect to be working overhead resistance. If you want to go further and deeper, of course you can. Note: the above is about as far as I went when overlaying other kinds of analysis onto this strategy. I like to keep it simple, stupid.
TEXTBOOK LONG TRADE OFF LBB:

https://preview.redd.it/e06otysgsh451.png?width=2820&format=png&auto=webp&s=101b3eed1b42512d639644bcc096d1026e558f17

TEXTBOOK SHORT TRADE OFF UBB:
https://preview.redd.it/yfg02yjhsh451.png?width=2820&format=png&auto=webp&s=18b427995f3dcecb22e1ae7f15cd5b3cd53c18e4
TRADE OFF MBB:
https://preview.redd.it/8kvzknaish451.png?width=2820&format=png&auto=webp&s=2f1e6113475193e8b812bface880a77e82ad7eeb

And that's a wrap for Part II.
submitted by ParallaxFX to Forex [link] [comments]

Elliott Waves Series Part 2 - The Broad Concept

Elliott Waves Series Part 2 - The Broad ConceptYou can find Part 1 here: https://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/hieuyw/introduction_to_elliott_wave_theory_overview_of/
The primary value that the Wave Principle (from here on out, abbreviated to WP) confers on market analysts is the ability to provide context for market behaviour. Having context is incredibly important. To put it simply, the WP can be thought of as a compass. Whenever you feel lost looking at a chart (ANY chart, ANY market!), the WP will help get you back on track.
Clearing Up Some Misconceptions About Elliott Wave Theory:

  1. R.N. Elliott first discovered the WP in the 1930s using charts of the stock market. Many misinformed people believe that the WP works “best” on stocks and has been adapted for use in other markets. This is simply false. To be clear - Elliott discovered the WP. He did not invent the WP. The WP is based on human social nature and therefore it cannot be invented. It has always existed. What Elliott did was to start codifying rules and guidelines around how human social nature can be charted. Ultimately, Elliott’s objective was to be able to predict future human behaviour using the historical record. The expression of human social nature generates forms and patterns. As these forms and patterns repetitive, they have enormous predictive value.

  1. Another major misconception around the WP is that it requires a lot of discretionary analysis, and more often than not, analysts shoehorn price action to fit the Elliott Wave model. In fact, the WP has very clear rules (these rules are inviolate under any circumstance) and guidelines (these guidelines should be adhered to almost 100% of the time). While there is a discretionary element involved in counting waves, properly trained wave analysts will ultimately arrive at a consensus because following the rules and guidelines narrows the possible wave counts very quickly. Very often Wave analysts will have 2 counts at hand in terms of where they think the market is presently situated. These counts are known as the preferred count and the alternative count. These counts are validated and invalidated using price levels derived from Elliott’s rules and guidelines. The most dissent I expect from two educated Wave analysts is that one analyst’s preferred count could be the other’s alternative count. This dissent quickly resolves itself as the price action develops and validates or invalidates one count or the other. This dissent usually occurs based on wave patterns of one higher degree. It is very rare that I have seen dissent on immediate market movements.

  1. I didn’t know this was a major misconception, but someone brought this up in my first post, “I stated that Elliott Theory has better success when working in consolidations or extreme ranging markets.” This is completely false. The WP doesn’t work better or worse regardless of the market or the market conditions. That would be like saying that breathing air only works occasionally. The WP is NOT a strategy, it is the definitive model for charting human herding behaviour. Human behaviour does not show up only in periods of consolidation or range-bound markets. The markets are themselves driven by human behaviour, therefore the WP is always equally applicable. From a trading perspective, the WP is perfectly suited to capturing trends.

  1. Well, what about news events? What about supply and demand theory? What about fundamentals?! Doesn’t any of this stuff matter?? In short, the answer is no. I have previously stated that I am a macro-based investor. This is certainly true. Much of the research I consume has to do with market fundamentals and global-macro analysis. This research helps me form a view that I can overlay with the WP. From a trading perspective, when it comes to actually pulling triggers and taking positions, my decisions are always guided first and foremost by the WP. Here is a fantastic quotation from Bob Prechter on this topic, “Sometimes the market appears to reflect outside conditions and events, but at other times it is entirely detached from what most people assume are causal conditions. The reason is that the market has a law of its own. It is not propelled by the external causality to which one becomes accustomed in the everyday experiences of life. The path of prices is not a product of news. Nor is the market the cyclically rhythmic machine that some declare it to be. Its movement reflects a repetition of forms that is independent both of presumed causal events and of periodicity.”
The Bottom Line:
Elliott Wave Theory is the best forecasting tool in existence. It has determined that the market’s progression unfolds in waves. Waves can be thought of as patterns that carry the market in a direction. There are a fixed number of the different kinds of patterns these waves can take. If you really boil this down to its essence, successfully applying the WP is as simple as identifying what kind of wave the market is currently in.
I will end this now. The next part will deal with the overriding wave structure that the market is in, the different kinds of waves we will see, and why this wave structure exists in the first place.
submitted by ParallaxFX to Forex [link] [comments]

Trading Ideas For Next Week [Week 2] (Part 1)

Trading Ideas For Next Week [Week 2] (Part 1)
Due to popular demand I've decided to bring this series back for a week 2 and I'll continue to release 3-5 trading ideas every Saturday. How do you guys feel about the name of this series? Would you like me to change the name to something like "Setup Saturdays" or are you guys cool with the current naming scheme?
So this week I wanted to be a lot more in depth in my analysis and setups since I didn't think I was super clear last week with my reasoning on some the setups. I want these posts to be as beginner friendly as possible because there's a lot more beginners in this Subreddit than I had realized. I want you to use this as an educational tool and not as a signal service as a result I'm going to give you possible trade setups and I want you to be the judge of whether you should enter once/if price gets to that point since I feel like that will benefit beginners in the long run. I got a couple questions about top down time frame analysis so that'll be a focus of today's post. Scroll down to NZDJPY if you really want an in-depth look at how I perform top down time frame analysis.
I'll include a picture of a chart and my TradingView chart so if you want to zoom in and out of the chart you'll have that ability to do so.
Quick Disclaimer: Some of the charts pricing might be off by a bit since I started working on this during the New York session on Friday. If any of the charts are impacted in a way that alters the setup I'll be sure to update the charts before I post this on Saturday. Just gotta hope that hope that Powell doesn't break the market or else I might have to redo this entire post.
AUDUSD:

AUDUSD Daily
TradingView Link For Daily: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/AUDUSD/Wb5K2bS8-AUDUSD-Daily-For-Reddit-Post-6-20-U-AD3133/
Analysis: Which way is the trend pointing? It looks like it's pointing up which we can see with the green trend line but how about we zoom in to the 4 hour char to see if that's actually the case.
Tip: When drawing a trend line, especially on the daily and higher time frames, remember to hit as many wicks as possible since they are relevant and not just some anomaly you can ignore.

AUDUSD 4 Hour
TradingView Link For 4 Hour: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/AUDUSD/aah8294z-AUDUSD-4-Hour-For-Reddit-Post-6-20-U-AD3133/
Analysis: When we got close to where we are with price and we draw a Fibonacci Retracement from the point where price took off to the point where price peaked we can see that price came down to .5 Fibonacci level where it then started going up again. Coincidence? Possibly. As a result I believe that price could continue higher and it would be justified if it did. However, if we look at the trend lines we can see that price appears to have broke put of of our major trend line (Green) which means that price could fall to the downside if it's actually a breakout. Price then appears like it would then adhere to the new minor trend line (Red). There's also the possibility that this was just a fake breakout and price could go up and adhere to green trend line. I'm going to have a selling bias on this trade since price looks like it double topped at the highs of this year and it looks like we could see price fall. I'm leaning towards the drop of price due to the symmetrical triangle pattern created by the major and minor trend line and looks like price is going to get pushed down which we should get an idea of soon.
Tip: Every time price makes a large move and falls/rises after making a peak/valley always pull out the Fibonacci retracement tool to see if price will bounce from the .382, .5, or .618 levels as they are the most significant levels. This can tell you if you're going to likely get a trend continuation.

AUDUSD 1 Hour
TradingView Link For 1 Hour: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/AUDUSD/IHgrnfYs-AUDUSD-1-Hour-For-Reddit-Post-6-20-U-AD3133/
Analysis: I drew out multiple different scenarios which I think can play out since like I said before we're not trying to predict a single movement but we're preparing to be reactive to an ideal condition which may be thrown at us. Remember that major trend line we drew in on the daily chart well it's going to play a large role here. This trend line has been in the making since March so we're not just going to brush it off. The trend line appears to have been broken and we seem to be sticking that minor trend line after the break of the symmetrical triangle pattern. After the break of the symmetrical triangle pattern price usually gets pushed heavily to one side and it looks like price is wanting to get pushed to the downside. As a result, I'm going to really keep on eyes on scenario the blue arrows display since I think it's the most probable. Looking at the scenario there are going to be two potentially good entry points for a sell. The first being when price goes up to retest the green trend line which would also serve as a bounce from our red trend line. Once we get that bounce we could enter in for a sell with a take profit hopefully somewhere around the .66 area. Another good entry would be when price breaks the zone of support of .68 and after it retests it. Wait for a confirmation candlestick pattern showing price will fall when retesting (i.e. railroad track, bullish engulfment candle, evening star, shooting star, etc.). Look for these candlestick patterns on the 15 minute chart. Once you got the confirmation take the sell and ride price down to the .66 zone. The other scenario that could occur is we could see price go back into the green trend line by breaking the red trend line (Orange Arrows). If this occurs we want to catch the retest bounce of the red trend line and ride price up to the high of the year which is at .702. At that point price could break the resistance at which point we could catch the retest of the zone and ride price up. Or it could go up to .702 create a triple top and fall. If you get a candlestick confirmation saying it'll fall then take a sell at the high of the year.
NZDUSD:
If there's something I really like in Forex it's definitely got to be harmonic patterns due to their high accuracy. NZDUSD just recently completed one of them and this is a really good indicator of what price is going to do.

NZDUSD Daily
TradingView Chart For Daily: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/NZDUSD/zQpHzUcK-NZDUSD-Daily-For-Reddit-Post-6-20-U-AD3133/
Analysis: Yes, we have trend line that says that price is going up however I make exceptions for Harmonic patterns since they are accurate about 80%-90% of the time. The pattern you see above is know as a Bearish Bat Pattern. Like the name says it's an indicator that price is going to go Bearish so although the trend line is going up I'm going to have a bearish bias on this trade.

NZDUSD 4 Hour
TradingView Chart For 4 Hour: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/NZDUSD/C29kpCyO-NZDUSD-4-Hour-For-Reddit-Post-6-20-U-AD3133/
Analysis: Not really much to add here just tossed on a Fibonacci retracement tool from where price took off to the peak just to check for any potential support from any of the major levels which we don't appear to have. We'll go a lot more in-depth on this pair on the 1 hour chart since that's where things get interesting.

NZDUSD 1 Hour
TradingView Link For 1 Hour: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/NZDUSD/dKJatcM7-NZDUSD-1-Hour-For-Reddit-Post-6-20-U-AD3133/
Analysis: Looking at price we can see that since June 11th price has been trading in a boxed consolidation range. Again I drew out the possibilities I believe could be ideal for us. Remember that I said Harmonics work 80%-90%. Well that means that they fail 10%-20% of the time which is definitely not something we can neglect. We can see that there's a descending triangle which price is reaching the end of. This means that price is getting ready to move to one direction since big moves always come after consolidation. If it moves to upside wait for price to close above the the spot marked D then you can enter for a buy and ride price up to the .67525 zone where price could break to upside or bounce back down (Orange Arrow). Remember to wait for it to actually close above point D since it could create a triple top and drive price back down. It's the same procedure as AUDUSD here if it makes this move where if it breaks it then catch the retest and if it looks like it's wanting to fall down wait for a confirmation pattern. If it breaks the box to the downside and breaks the support zone then take a sell and ride price down to the trend line at which point you should close the trade as there's a chance price could move against you and it's best to secure profits while you can. Once at the trend line it could bounce and if it does you should be able to ride price up to that .67525 zone (Green Arrow). If price breaks the trend line then wait for the retest and you should be able to ride price down pretty far (Red Arrows). I think you should be able to ride it down to .5918 zone but you'll have to keep your on it.
EURNZD:

EURNZD Daily
TradingView Link For Daily: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/EURNZD/jzgmGcRe-EURNZD-Daily-For-Reddit-Post-6-20-U-AD3133/
Analysis: Well we got a pretty clear descending channel and price looks like it's at the top part of the channel currently so we're going to want to look for some optimal selling conditions due to the down trend.

EURNZD 4 Hour
TradingView Link For 4 Hour: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/EURNZD/YzOpvcH7-EURNZD-4-Hour-For-Reddit-Post-6-20-U-AD3133/
Analysis: Looking at the 4 hour chart we can see that there appears to be a symmetrical triangle coming to it's end meaning price is getting ready to get pushed to a side. I believe it'll break the triangle and fall to the downside so once you see it break it would be a good idea to take a sell and ride price down to that support zone at 1.7187. Price could also briefly break to the upside then bounce off the top of the channel and it does take a trade from the bounce and ride price down to the same support zone. At that point, I'll leave it up to you to determine how you think price will go and what you should be looking for. Consider it to be a little quiz if you want to think of it like that. You've got my charts so use them as a reference since I've already marked some crucial support/resistance zones which we should keep our on for the next couple weeks.

EURNZD 1 Hour
TradingView Link For 1 Hour: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/EURNZD/ICWvgEsg-EURNZD-1-Hour-For-Reddit-Post-6-20-U-AD3133/
Analysis: There's nothing that special on the one hour chart that I have to point out since I think we pretty much got all the big stuff out of the way on our analysis of the 4 hour chart. Be sure to get a good sell in there since there are two potentially good setups which I've outlined for you. Also be sure to be careful and wait for the bounce of the channel if price goes that way since there's a chance price could break the channel and I don't want you to take a loss because you were impatient.
NZDJPY:
This pair is going to be really fun since we're going to be looking through a lot of time frames so if you really want to learn about a top down approach to analyzing time frames and trends then pay very close attention to how I break down this trade.

NZDJPY Monthly
TradingView Link For Monthly: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/NZDJPY/jZh4F2Jv-NZDJPY-Monthly-For-Reddit-Post-6-20-U-AD3133/
Analysis: Yes, we're actually going to be looking at the monthly chart. I bet you guys don't do that very often. Looking at it we can see that price has been following a clear down trend line since late 2014. If you look at the wick of this month's candle you can see that it appears to have touched the trend line meaning we could see a good opportunity to catch a sell since it had just recently bounced off. Let's take a look at lower time frames to see if this continues to be true.

NZDJPY Weekly
TradingView Link For Weekly: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/NZDJPY/dpvI29BB-NZDJPY-Weekly-For-Reddit-Post-6-20-U-AD3133/
Analysis: When zooming into the weekly we can see that using the wicks of the candles we can actually draw a channel for the low portion that runs pretty much in parallel to the trend line we drew on the monthly chart. We can see that price clearly bounced from the trend line and I think this gives us good reason to believe in the coming weeks we could see the price drop. Also looking at the Bollinger Bands we can see that price also bounced from the top band which also supports a drop of price. Let's go into the daily to see if we can get a better idea.

NZDJPY Daily
TradingView Link For Daily: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/NZDJPY/NbWLURkU-NZDJPY-Daily-For-Reddit-Post-6-20-U-AD3133/
Analysis: Looking at the daily time frame we can see that price is currently consolidated and remember big moves always come after consolidation. If you look closely however you can see that price looks like it's about to break the 200 day EMA (Orange line). If it breaks the EMA we could see price drop pretty far at an accelerated rate. Besides those couple observations there's not much else going on with the daily chart.

NZDJPY 4 Hour
TradingView Link For 4 Hour: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/NZDJPY/d1kaogH5-NZDJPY-4-Hour-For-Reddit-Post-6-20-U-AD3133/
Analysis: Would you look at that, it looks like we got a descending triangle on the 4 hour chart which looks like it's coming to an end. Looking at price it looks like it's wanting to push to the downside. Once you get a break below the lows of the day of June 11th I think it would be a safe bet to take a sell trade and ride it down for 66.825 for this week. If it breaks the 66.825 support zone then I'll definitely take a sell and try to ride price down to the bottom of the channel which we drew on the weekly chart. There's also the possibility that price could take support at any of these support zones and then head back up to test the top of the channel. At which point I'll be looking to get into a sell at the top of the channel but I won't ride price up to the channel since at this current point in time I feel like there's a large amount of risk in that.

NZDJPY 1 Hour
TradingView Link For 1 Hour: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/NZDJPY/83b47mFS-NZDJPY-1-Hour-For-Reddit-Post-6-20-U-AD3133/
Analysis: Not much more to add here since I think by this point we got the entire story so I'm not going to say much more about the 1 hour chart since I think the analysis for the 4 hour chart also sums this up pretty well.
Well that was a lot of information to go through and I hope you found some value in this since it took me quite a few hours to put this together for you guys. Truth be told, I spent most of Friday working on this so I hope at least one person finds some value in which case I'll consider it a win.
So you guys tired of me yet or do you want me to continue this series for a week 3? It takes a lot of time and effort to put this together so I'll only do it if people want it or else I'll pretty much feel like I wasted my time. I might put together a little lesson on how to use the COT in order to catch some big reversal moves in the market since the COT pretty much tells you what the hedge funds are doing and you also want to trade with the hedge funds and institutions. It'll probably take a couple weeks since I'll have to compile some data together and wait for a setup before putting that out but I'll be working on it. Are there any other things you may want explained? Let me know and I'll try to find setups which contain the topic you may want more details on. I hope you have a great trading week!
submitted by AD3133 to Forex [link] [comments]

Playing Safe on Forex trading

Hi guys. I'm basically new to trading forex despite studying for 10 months, I feel like I'm a no good trader. Just a small background, I tried to trade on real account after 4 months with a trading plan I copied from a forex guru and I lost 25% of my $100 in 3 months (very small account just to test my psychology). I decided to study again with the help of babypips and started demo trading 2 months ago by constructing my own trading plan which is based on trend/range trading. My problem is, I feel like I'm super playing it safe in trading. I've only had 4-6 trades in a month and an average win rate of 83% having 100-150 pips gain. I am currently looking at H1 and H4 timeframes. Do you think having 4-6 trades a month is a very small frequency given that i look at H1/H4 charts? How often do you guys trade for those who look at H1/H4 charts? Is there any advice you can tell me which will improve my trading frequency?
Thanks for taking the time to read and response on this post.
submitted by vivixdesu to Forex [link] [comments]

A grand to jump into Forex trading..

Aussie female here, sitting on a grand and wondering what’s my best bet on my first buy??
submitted by cmosdelete99 to Forex [link] [comments]

Detailed Monday scalp explanation!

Detailed Monday scalp explanation!
Dear Traders
Most people know me by now I'm the guy with the 10 pips that always put the same song in the video, because I just love it too much. haha
Well let's get down to business unfortunately I was too tired to write the explanation post yesterday, but it doesn't matter as long as you read through this carefully it doesn't matter when you read this :)
Let's start with the London lunch scalp. A lot of people haven't seen the post because it was posted at a non US friendly time. I'll link it here if you are interested before we get into detail.
Post: https://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/h9f4q8/cable_scalp_london_lunch_session_the_red_line/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x
So the reason for this entry came from the M15 Chart and you will see why I only take 10 pips and then out immediately.

London Lunch M15 Chart
What you are looking at here is the last up close candle before this "major" dump. What's important tho is that price also immediately went back up and traded over this candle. Now we just wait for price to dip into the red square and we have our free 10 pips. As you see shortly after price went lower so be careful with your target. On HTF if you see something like this it is more likely to give you more pips. Always keep in mind we are on M15/ a LTF so we target conservative!

M1 London Lunch Chart
Just to complete the explanation, here's the M1 chart. Red line was the TP. Square Entry as explained.

Most people probably seen the NY video but I will also link it here.
Post: https://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/h9i9gf/another_ny_session_another_10_pips_i_messed_up/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x
The other scalp was made in NY and blew up way more. A lot of discussion, questions and accusing of gambling haha as usual. So what's special about this trade... it was my first trade I guess that was purely based of the M1 TF and not like a higher TF candle. Let's look into it.
M1 NY Session Chart
So this is unusual for my chart so many lines/squares ^^ So let's get started from top to bottom. Just a quick mention the two horizontal red lines are entry and TP.
  1. The diagonal line on the top is only there to visualize that the highs are not equal this is the first sign of bearishness.
  2. Red square: Wick of the last down close candle before price shoots up. The wick after price came back down is now seen as a bearish level so if price trades there I look for short entries.
  3. Blue Line: Bodys of the previous low. Candles closed below that line confirming that the low will be broken any time. Price went back up a little and I immediately took action on that. 2 Minutes later price showed me that my levels are accurate and I don't need to FOMO. I should have been patient, so I learned something from this trade!
This wraps up the teaching of my monday scalps!
I might not post tomorrow since I'll not be home and screen recording might be to stressful. We'll see.
Cheers!
submitted by Flotschgee to Forex [link] [comments]

What is THE BEST Time-Frame for Trading Forex?! How to Set Your Time Zone in MetaTrader Trade Secrets: Why We Trade The Daily Chart HOW I TRADE FROM THE 4 HOUR CHARTS Forex Trading the Daily Chart: How to Catch BIG Moves!

How to use the Forex Market Time Converter. The forex market is available for trading 24 hours a day, five and one-half days per week. The Forex Market Time Converter displays "Open" or "Closed" in the Status column to indicate the current state of each global Market Center. US Daylight Savings Time begins at 2am Sunday 8 March. UK Daylight Savings Time begins at 1am Sunday 29 March. Australia Daylight Savings Time begins at 3am Sunday 5 April. Forex Market Hours. Forex trading is available 24 hours a day from 9:00pm GMT (10:00pm BST) until 9:00pm GMT (10:00pm BST) on Friday, including most U.S. holidays. Your forex chart is your best “weapon” for deciding when to enter and when to exit a currency position. The future direction of a particular pricing move is always a “50/50” proposition, but your indicators may guide you as to whether the probabilities favor one direction over another. Time spent testing your trading system on a 00:32 What is the best timeframe chart to trade? 03:06 5.8% return on two trades 06:18 A huge weakness in the USD. What is the best time frame chart to trade Forex? What’s the best time frame chart to trade? What suits you? Well let’s talk about that right now in this video. Hi it’s Andrew Mitchem here the Forex Trading Coach. Forex trading time frames are commonly classified as long-term, medium-term and short-term. Traders have the option of incorporating all three, or simply using one longer and one shorter time

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What is THE BEST Time-Frame for Trading Forex?!

This video shows how simple it is to analyse a Forex chart, with a USDJPY example we execute a top down analysis using strictly tools and price action. This is just a fraction of what we teach at ... Why I like to trade the longer time frame Forex charts - Duration: 6:58. Andrew Mitchem 30,067 views. 6:58. Forex Trading the Daily Chart: How to Catch BIG Moves! 📈 - Duration: 12:20. We show you how to sync your broker time with NY time in MetaTrader. ... MT4 How to keep charts on same date & time - Duration: 5:53. Compass Trade Group 25,173 views. 5:53. 95% Winning Forex ... Ever wondered what sort of time frame you should use for your charts? This video looks at a variety of different trading styles and discusses which sorts of charting time frames suit those styles ... More Tags: Best Forex Heiken Ashi Trading Strategy by SasanFx1, heiken ashy,"fibonacci" "retracements" "strategy" "Live 5 min Scalping" "fibonacci trading" "fibonacci trading secrets" "5 min ...