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FIRE and Kids – The cost of raising children in Australia

This post has been inspired by this recent podcast featuring three of the biggest names in the Aussie FIRE blogging community, and the follow on discussions in the Aussie Firebug Facebook group about how much it costs to raise kids in Australia. As all three acknowledge they don’t have kids so it’s not something they really have any experience with.
As someone who has two young kids I thought it would be useful to write about it from my perspective. Obviously my situation isn’t the same as everyone else’s, there are plenty of people who would be horrified with how much we’ve spent, and others who would wonder how we manage to spend so little. Everyone’s situation is different, so what works for my family wouldn’t necessarily work or others.
My oldest child has only just started school this year so I can’t really speak from experience beyond the 0-5yo age range, but I’ll talk through some of the typical costs, what we have and haven’t spent money on so far, and what we’re anticipating in the future.
The costs people actually talk about The first two things that almost always come up when people start talking about the cost of babies are prams and carseats. Yes, you can spend a lot of money on these things if you want to, prams in particular. From a quick look at Baby Bunting the most expensive pram there is nearly 3 thousand dollars, and I’m betting that with a few accessories you can easily get over that mark.
No, you do not need to spend that much on a pram. Yes you can probably pick one up on the cheap from Kmart or Target etc for well under a hundred bucks, but it’s probably not going to be as sturdy or hold much of the gear you take with you. Happily a pram is also the sort of thing where you can pretty easily and safely pick one up secondhand or get a hand me down from someone else.
We bought a Babyzen Yoyo, which is basically a small sized pram although it still has enough storage room for us. It folds up so that you can take it on a plane as carry on luggage, is quite light, extremely maneuverable and very sturdy. I’ve taken it running plenty of times, it’s even got a Parkrun PB of 22:06!
This thing is absolutely gold. Unfortunately it’s priced as though it’s made of it as well. There wasn’t an option to get one second hand because it had only just been released so we had to pay full whack. I think we spent over a thousand dollars on it including all the accessories and the lie flat and sit up seats etc.
It was worth every cent. It’s been going for 5 years and 2 kids and is still in great shape, we’ve never had a problem with it at all. My wife tells me it is one of the best things I have ever bought her, although we both use it obviously.
And at the end of the day a one off cost of $1,000 for us as a family is going to have basically zero impact on when we hit FIRE. Plugging the numbers into a compound interest calculator and using 7% annual return over 30 years I miss out on $8,000, which is about a month worth of returns on my target portfolio. I can live with delaying retirement one month for about 5 cumulative years of having a really good pram that works great for us.
Similarly you can spend a fair chunk of money on car seats. This is one of those things that I wouldn’t want to get second hand because you can’t see if they’ve been broken or not and safety is a huge priority for us and presumably everyone else.
Happily car seats don’t tend to cost that much, you can pick one up for a couple hundred bucks or less pretty easily. If you do that it tends to be one for a much shorter age range, say 0-2yrs whereas I think you can get ones which will take your kid from 0-8 but they cost a lot more. In any case per kid you’re probably looking at a thousand bucks total, and this could easily be a lot less.
Again it’s not going to make any appreciable different to us reaching FIRE. So as easy as it is to point at this sort of stuff as being ridiculously expensive and over priced etc, it’s really not going to make much of a difference to most people. Sure you don’t want to spend any more money than you have to, but you also want to make sure you’re getting something that works for you.
The other one off costs There are also a bunch of one off costs for babies and young kids like cots, beds, mattresses, baby carriers etc. From what I’ve been told you want to buy a baby mattress new, but that’s only about a hundred bucks at Target, potentially cheaper elsewhere. We have an Ikea cot which cost about the same, you could easily get one second hand or likely for free just by asking around your friends who will probably be delighted to get it out of their house.
Some people do co-sleeping in which case you don’t need the cot and mattress although you may like to kid yourself that your baby will actually sleep in their own bed, maybe even through the night. It’s nice to pretend sometimes!
As kids get older you’ll need a proper bed for them, again you can probably pick this up second hand pretty cheap and a mattress can be easily had for a couple hundred bucks. So none of these things are really going to have much of an impact so long as you’re a decent saver already.
The big costs you see When you don’t have kids it can be great to live in a studio flat or one bedroom apartment in the inner city close to all the bars and restaurants and all the rest of it. You can stay in your local area and have plenty to keep you entertained, there is probably a supermarket nearby and plenty of public transport so you may not need a car either.
Once you have kids, it’s likely going to be a different story as your priorities change. It may be that you’re happy renting with kids, but lots of people tend to prioritise stability and security when they have kids and that means owning your own home in most cases. I’m not saying everyone will want this, but a lot of people will.
So now that you have kids you almost certainly want a second bedroom and if you’re planning on having more kids maybe a third or fourth etc. Obviously kids can share bedrooms for a while at least but sooner or later they will probably want their own space, as will you.
You’ll also be wanting parks with playgrounds nearby and somewhere you can easily take your kids for a walk or kick a football around, ideally in a good school district which can add a couple hundred thousand dollars to the cost all by itself if you’re in Sydney or Melbourne. And if you want to live somewhere cheaper but send the kids to a good private school, well that can cost anywhere from the low thousands to multiple tens of thousands per year.
Similarly if you didn’t have a car before, you will very likely want one now. I’ve mentioned before that we drive a base model Corolla which works just fine for us so far, but you’re still probably looking at $20k plus if you buy one new, mid teens if you want one used. If you want an SUV or a luxury model car, be prepared to fork out a lot more.
In the same vein if you were previously going on lots of holidays and plan to keep doing so, well you now have at least one more plane ticket to buy, might need a bigger hotel room etc. As I talked about in this post about big ticket items, that all comes at a real cost. We bought land and built a house, so I can say that we spent roughly $100,000 more on that than we would have otherwise.
The ongoing costs There are also a bunch of ongoing costs for kids as well. They need to be fed, they need clothes and shoes, they need medicine, and a bunch of other stuff that costs money. I wrote here about a bunch of things that we do to keep costs down, but the reality is that you still have to fork over a decent chunk of change.
On top of all that contrary to what you might have been told public school is not free, there are a bunch of things that you have to chip in for here as well. We’re not at the stage that we’re forking out a fortune in extra utility bills etc but we certainly use the washing machine a lot more than we would if we didn’t have kids, there are extra lights and tvs etc on so there are extra costs there as well.
There are also a bunch of extra items that you don’t really need to spend, but probably will. For us this includes stuff like swimming lessons, some sports like AusKick (AFL) and Junior Blasters (cricket), occasionally taking them to a theme park or zoo etc. They also get birthday and Christmas presents, and if they get invited to other kids parties they take a store bought gift with them.
The above is about what I think our 5yo costs us at the moment based on our spending, our 2yo is probably about two thirds of that due mostly to her not eating as much and not getting swimming lessons yet, as well as not being in school or doing sports.
I’ve left the holiday line blank because this is hugely variable. Last year we did a trip to the UK and it probably cost us about $3,000 extra between the two of them, next time it will be another couple thousand dollars more because the youngest one will need her own seat rather being on someone’s lap for the flights.
So our spending for our eldest is about two thirds of the costs quoted in this article for a 6yo girl, I would assume that apart from a boy maybe eating a bit more the costs should be fairly similar. The main difference compared to our costs seem to be education and transport.
Also, it was somewhat shocking to me just how expensive swimming lessons are! This is actually at our local council aquatic centre and is the cheapest in town. We do get to use the pool whenever we want, but that only tends to be once or twice a week at most. At least the lessons will hopefully only be for a few years for each child, although after that we may be forking out for something else instead.
The hidden cost of kids The biggest cost is often actually one that doesn’t show up as an expense, the opportunity cost of one parent giving up paid employment entirely for a while or doing part time hours (I’ve used the phrase giving up paid employment here because looking after kids and a house is definitely work!).
If we say that you’re giving up a full time paid job that’s at minimum wage of roughly $20 an hour for 40 hours a week, 48 weeks a year, then that’s $38,400 a year ($33,605 after tax and medicare levy) that the family is giving up for however long this goes on for. If you’d otherwise be earning more than that, then the opportunity cost each year is even higher. On top of that there is the hit to your career and future earnings, because those are definitely going to be impacted as well.
If you’ve got two kids that are separated by two or three years and you as a family want a parent at home until they go to school, well that’s 7 or 8 years of missing out on that money which works out as around $250k based on a full time minimum wage job. I’m pretty hopeful that my wife would be earning more than minimum wage as well so for us it’s even more than that. On the plus side, she gets to spend more time with the kids although that probably feels like a mixed blessing some of the time!
Alternatively if both parents want to keep working then there will likely be childcare costs for the first 4 or 5 years and then before and after school care, as well as missing out on spending time with their kids. Because we haven’t gone down this route I don’t know exactly how much it costs, I do hear plenty of stories about it being $100 a day minimum around where I live and it’s a lot more in capital cities. There are subsidies available for this, but you can pretty easily be spending tens of thousands each year on childcare while they’re young and then once they’re old enough before and after school care.
You may be lucky enough to have grandparents or other family nearby that are happy to help out with this if they live nearby, but that won’t apply to everyone and it’s unlikely to reduce the cost entirely.
The costs that are yet to come At the moment our kids are still young and fairly inexpensive. Between the two of them they tend to eat roughly what a grown adult eats, but from what I’ve been told that will change fairly dramatically as they get older. They’ll need new clothes more frequently, more shoes, potentially play more sports, go on more school excursions, you get the idea.
Education could be another factor. There is a public high school that will be built in the next few years quite close by, and assuming that it’s decent our kids will likely be going there. But if it’s not, then we’ll have to look into private schools which can cost anywhere from a few thousand dollars to tens of thousands.
There will be extra curricular stuff as well. Given my wife and I are both horrible at music it seems unlikely that our kids will be doing extra lessons there, but there are plenty of other areas like sport or extra educational activities that we’d be considering. I know a few parents who have kids who are in elite sports programs (as in regional or state teams) and the costs here can very quickly add up, likewise if extra education is needed or wanted then that’ll be an extra expense.
Government and other assistance I know that depending on your circumstances that there can be government assistance in the form of Family Tax Benefit, childcare subsidy and possibly other programs as well. We don’t get any of these which is fine, we don’t need them and they are presumably meant to be for those who do. If you’re not sure if you should be getting any of these then Centrelink does have this payment finder.
We did get the one day a week Kinder program for 3yos and 3 days a week Kinder program for 4yos, although these both also came with costs of roughly $1,500 a year so it actually cost us money, again this is fine, just a reminder that it isn’t actually free.
Depending on your employer you may also be able to get parental leave for a while, and there is a minimum payment which they have to make so long as you’ve met some requirements. Some employers may also have some continuing support with subsidised childcare and the like. None of this was applicable to our situation but at least some of it will likely be available for others.
So what’s the bottom line? For us the biggest actual one off cost so far has been the bigger house and land that we purchased because we wanted our kids to be able to have plenty of space inside and outside the house. That cost about a hundred thousand dollars more than we would have paid if it were just the two of us. All the other stuff like a pram, car seats, cots/beds, mattresses and all the rest of it have been maybe $5,000 total, which is tiny by comparison.
The opportunity cost has been bigger than this though. When we had our first child when we were in Hong Kong my wife wasn’t working much anyway as there just weren’t that many jobs she could do and my wage easily supported both of us so she was doing some very casual part time work and so not doing that work afterwards didn’t impact us much.
In Australia though she probably would have been earning at least $40,000 a year after tax, so we’ve foregone almost $200,000 on an after tax basis there. Which as I’m sure you can imagine has a pretty big impact on when we will hit FIRE, particularly given we’ve got another few years or her not being in paid employment at all and then likely only working part time after that. So I would guess we’ll be looking at forgone earnings of at least $500,000 by the time all is said and done, and it could quite easily be a lot more.
The actual ongoing costs of the kids so far haven’t been too bad. Between the two of them it’s about $8,000 a year at the moment, although we would anticipate that this will go up a fair bit over time as they start eating more and getting into more extra curricular activities. I get that this is spending that isn’t a necessity, but do I really want my kids to miss out on a bunch of fun stuff so that I can retire a year or two earlier? No, no I do not.
So far the total costs look something like this. You can see that by far the biggest cost has been the earnings that we’ve missed out on because my wife has been at home looking after the kids and doing the household stuff (yes I do some of it because I think it’s important that we share the jobs and to role model stuff for the kids, but the reality is that she is at home a lot more than I am and does more of it). Buying a bigger house and land is next, and the actual costs of feeding and clothing and all the other one off stuff for the kids is a tiny proportion of the actual cost.
All up I’m hopeful that we can keep the ongoing costs to somewhere between $125k and $150k per child from birth through to age 18, although if private school is necessary then that will push up the costs a fair bit. This is less than half of what this article suggests, so although it sounds like a lot of money it’s actually fairly frugal by comparison.
To put it in perspective, it’s basically spending about 7 or 8 grand a year on each child. There are plenty of people out there who spend more than that on food alone, let alone the rest of their living expenses.
As I said earlier travel costs are on top of this, and this can increase the costs quite a lot! Travel is a huge part of the reason we’re pursuing HIFIRE, and we want to be taking the kids on plenty of holidays while they’re growing up.
That’s obviously discretionary spending to a large extent, but we do have close family living overseas who we want to see every couple of years or so, and it’s not fair to expect them to always be the ones travelling. I would guess that we’ll be looking at about $50k per kid in travel costs by the time they turn 18. That’s about 3 grand a year, which doesn’t sound wrong based on the cost of international travel. It may be less than that which would be great, but could also be a fair bit more.
So all up for the two kids we’re looking at about a million dollars from birth to age 18. About half of that is the foregone wages from not working, which is by far the biggest impact. The actual cost of the kids is about another 30%, then travel is 10%, another 10% for the bigger house and land. And then right at the end is less than 1% for the one off stuff like prams and baby seats and cots etc.
How could we spend less? Obviously there are other things we could be doing instead to keep the cost down. The biggest expense is the wages that aren’t being earned because my wife is looking after the kids and the household stuff. We could have chosen to have her work and instead pay for childcare and after school care etc.
If we did though then she wouldn’t get to spend as much time with the kids (which she tells would be welcome some of the time!) and there would be a lot more house work and shopping that would need to be done after work or on weekends for both of us, we’d potentially eat out more often as it’d be more of a hassle cooking meals each night, as well as a bunch of other tradeoffs.
So having her stay at home was our preferred method, and thankfully we’re in the financial position where we can afford to do it that way. Other people make different choices, or they’re unfortunately not in a position to make a choice, they need both partners working or if they’re a single parent have to do it this way.
We could have also gone with a smaller house and less of a backyard. I shared a bedroom with my brother for part of our childhood and we both managed fine. It’s not ideal, but it’s certainly doable, and we could have saved a lot of money by having a smaller house. Again we chose not to because we wanted a bigger house and a decent sized backyard for them to be able to run around in and we can afford it.
We don’t have to travel, although it’d be a bit rough expecting family to travel overseas to see us every year or two and then not reciprocating. Still, that would save a fair amount of money.
It’s pretty hard to say how things will work out with the actual costs of raising the kids. I know roughly what we’ve spent so far, but it’s pretty difficult to know what we’ll be spending in future as they get older. They’re likely to be eating a fair bit more food, s they grow they’ll need new clothes and shoes, they’ll presumably be playing sport and doing other extra curricular stuff which will all cost money.
$150k per kid from 0 to 18 seems like it’s a lot less than what it costs most people, but then we already live a fair bit more cheaply than most others so maybe it’s about right.
At the end of the day we’re happy with the choices that we’ve made so far, but there has certainly been some room to have spent less money than what we have, or to have had more money coming in through both of us being in paid employment. Obviously it has an impact on when we will hit our FIRE number, but I’d rather take a little bit longer to get there than to make different tradeoffs along the way.
Have you got kids or are thinking about having them? How do you think it will impact on your FIRE journey?
Original post with pretty charts, pictures, tables etc is here.
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Five of the most unexpected results in AFL History.

Five/Six*.
As an ‘offseason’ post since we don’t have a lot going on I thought I’d contribute today with a list of some unexpected AFL results, now what I won’t be looking at is the biggest upsets in history, instead I’ll be looking at some results that happened that nobody could have predicted at all, primarily in regards to scoreboard differential. If this post gets enough interest I’ll make a part 2.

St Kilda vs Richmond, Rd 16 2017

  • Richmond were 9-5 for the season.
  • St Kilda were 8-6 for the season.
Both teams had similarly great starts to the season and were looking to cement themselves in the top 8, Richmond were the betting favourite but with the game at St Kilda's home ground it was expected to be a tight contest between evenly matched teams. What wasn't expected was for St Kilda to absolutely dominate proceedings and take a 92-10 halftime lead. 11 Saints players kicked a goal in the first half in an utter domination. The final score was 138-71, A 67 point win for the Saints who played a conservative second half. This win was St Kilda's 4th in a row and they looked likely to make finals at 9-6, but both teams seasons went in opposite directions after this match. St Kilda finished just 2-5 to end home and away season while Richmond finished 6-1 to end the home and away season before going 3-0 in September, winning each game by over 6 goals (combined 135 points) to win the premiership.

St Kilda vs Fremantle, Rd 18 2014

  • Fremantle had won 8 consecutive games and were looking to move to 1st with a win.
  • St Kilda had lost 11 consecutive games and were cemented at bottom ladder.
Two teams on completely opposite ends of the ladder clashed in this contest and the result was nothing even the most confident of Saints fans could've tipped. The Saints had only kicked 3 goals the week prior while Fremantle were coming off a 21 goal game in a huge 75+ point win. Despite injuries to Sandilands, Walters and Hill the Dockers were expected to record an easy win against a struggling opponent but they didn't deliver. In shocking fashion nothing worked for Freo as St Kilda kicked the first 4 goals and never looked like losing. The margin ballooned out to 75 points before some garbage time goals for Freo saw the final score of 118-60. Interestingly this game wasn’t even a sign of improvement for Saints as the win was their only victory in a brutal 18 game stretch while the Dockers would go on to win 12 of their next 15 games after this debacle. A true anomaly in every sense of the word.

North Melbourne vs Adelaide, Rd 7 2016

  • Adelaide were 15-3 in their last 18 games.
  • North Melbourne were 3-15 in their last 18 games.
  • The most recent clash between these two teams resulted in a 10 goal finals loss for North Melbourne.
Everything leading into this clash suggested an easy victory for a red hot Adelaide Crows that had started 6-0 in 2017. The Roos had started 0-5 in 2017 before a close win against the Suns in comparison. However, aided with a strong breeze across the ground, when the two teams clashed in Hobart, North Melbourne came out strong with all their running. In one of the most unexpected first quarter performances in recent history the underdogs jumped out to a 64-0 quarter time lead. Jarrad Waite led the way for North with 3 goals in the opening stanza and finished with 6 as a terrific Adelaide team was left shell shocked in an 86-145 loss. The victory was a mini turning point for a North team that would go 4-1 in the next month but they finished the season with just 6 wins. For Adelaide it was a minor hurdle as they went on to secure the minor premiership and make their first grand final in about two decades.
West Coast vs Adelaide, Rd 17 2006
  • Adelaide had started the season 14-2 and were 1st on the ladder.
  • West Coast had started the season 11-5 and were 2nd on the ladder.
A game advertised as a potential grand final preview ended as a profound statement when the Eagles and Crows clashed late in the 2006 season. Adelaide had won 8 straight matches and had only lost by a combined 5 points in two games so far for the year, but faced a tough task against a surging Eagles team at their dominant home fortress. The 2005 grand final runner ups came out with a point to prove and after kicking the first 5 goals of the match they never looked challenged. The Eagles midfield was sublime with Cousins (38/2 goals), Kerr (34/2 goals) and Judd (21/3 goals) having a field day. The final score of 165-83 reflecting the demolition in a signature West Coast victory. The tough loss was the start of a downward spiral for the Crows who finished the year 3-5, while the Eagles would go on to win 8 of their next 10 games including a prelim victory over Adelaide and their 3rd flag in club history.
1995 Carlton Round 8 vs Sydney and Round 9 vs St Kilda.
  • Carlton were 7-0 to begin 1995 and had finished 2nd in 1994 and made a grand final in 1993.
  • Sydney were a horrible club winning just 10 of their last 70 games including just 1 win in 1993.
In a classic situation of dominant team vs bad team the Blues were expected to continue their winning form with a big victory over a team that been the joke of the competition for the large part of the 90s. However Carlton didn't fire a shot and after trailing at halftime by just 10 they found themselves facing a 57 point deficit at halftime. There was no fight back by Carlton in this match however and an 8 goal haul by Tony Lockett saw the Swans home by a score of 132-60, a 72 point victory. It was a great sign for an improving Swans team but many saw it as an anomaly and expected Carlton to bounce back the next week...
  • Carlton had started season 7-1
  • Saints had started season 1-7
This was time for Carlton to bounce back like a champion team does, after a bad loss the weak prior they should have been out to destroy the opposition. After all it was a clash of first on the ladder. Shockingly despite how bad the previous game was Carlton managed to do even worse. After 3 quarters of play the Blues had just 11 points on the board in total. Losing By 10 goals and having scored just 11 points in the first 3 quarters. The final score of 80-24 saw Carlton lose consecutive games to bad teams by big margins and the critics were having their say. Had the Blues peaked to early at 7-0?
Well It's safe to say that they hadn't.
Following these two big losses they didn’t lose at all for the rest of the season. They won 18 consecutive games overall (including 1996). That stretch of 18 straight featured a 10 goal preliminary final win against North Melbourne and a 10 goal grand final win against Geelong culminating in an AFL premiership for the famous club.
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I don't kick a footy, mate, and I don't sit in a coaches box. That’s the brave people who do that are doing that job. But I know that Redditors would want me back at this time. So I'll happily come back and do that. – The /r/AFL 2020 Collingwood Magpies season preview

History
Est: 1892
Premierships (VFL/AFL): 15
Last premiership: 2010
Grounds: Melbourne Cricket Ground, Marvel Stadium, Olympic Park Oval (training)
Key Administration:
2019 season overview
H&A Ladder position: 4 (15 wins, 7 losses)
EW Copeland Trophy (BnF): Brodie Grundy
Leading goalkicker: Brody Mihocek (36 goals)
All-Australian representation: Brodie Grundy, Scott Pendlebury (Adam Treloar named in initial squad)
AFL debutants:
VFL affiliate: Collingwood VFL (finished 11th in 2019; 7 wins, 11 losses)
2019 season review
Collingwood supporters such as myself had good reason to believe that the club could go one better from 2018. After losing the 2018 Grand Final in heartbreaking fashion, the club theoretically improved its list by re-acquiring a genuine A-grader in Dayne Beams at a premium, shoring up its key position stocks at bargain basement price with Jordan Roughead and exploiting drafting rules to acquire two top-30 talents in Isaac Quaynor and Will Kelly despite not having a live pick until pick 41.
Unfortunately, the home and away season could probably be described as lacklustre. Too often Collingwood relied on playing one really strong quarter of football before taking the foot off the accelerator for the rest of the game. This was evident in the game against Port Adelaide, ANZAC Day, the game against Sydney and the game against St Kilda. Eventually, the club went through a major form slump in the middle of the season, playing unattractive, stop-start football that was more characteristic of the non-finals years under Buckley then the exciting 2018. In the middle of this slump, however, the club delivered a memorable win on the road against West Coast, keeping them goalless for a full half to win by one point and down two players.
The club snuck into the top four by the end of the season, however this was more to do with a Hawthorn masterclass against the Eagles in Round 23 than genuinely being deserving of fourth spot. The two finals Collingwood played were representative of much of the season for the club – the Qualifying Final against Geelong proved the club could still put it together and match it against the best (Geelong having been minor premiers over the course of the entire season), however the Preliminary Final against GWS showed again that the players thought they could pull off a miracle win by playing one good quarter – this was not to be.
Nathan Buckley lamented following the Prelim loss that 2019 was “a wasted year.” Initially I thought this was being a tad harsh, but on reflection I think I agree with him. Collingwood had the elements to put everything together and win the premiership but squandered it for various reasons. The club again faced a huge injury list, with usual suspects De Goey, Elliott and Moore missing chunks of the season. First-choice fullback Dunn re-tore his ACL on his return in a VFL practice match. Langdon injured his knee (the details of which the club has refused to reveal) during halftime against St Kilda and missed the rest of the season. Beams missed much of the season with hip/shouldemental health issues and there continues to be speculation that he may never return to football. Wells sustained a PCL game in his one game of the season which ultimately caused his retirement before the season had officially ended.
As per usual, off-field issues distracted the club, including Stephenson copping a ten-match suspension for betting on Collingwood matches and Sier playing social basketball under a pseudonym despite being in rehab for a calf injury at the time.
Personally, I think much of the problem lies with very few players taking a step-up in their development like what had occurred in 2018. Phillips, Sidebottom, Thomas and Hoskin-Elliott were among the players that had exceptionally strong seasons in 2018 but struggled at times through 2019 (the latter, however, perhaps forgiven for having virtually nil pre-season). The midfield group also failed to connect and take advantage of Grundy’s dominance.
Having said that, there were some positives to take from the season. Grundy continued his trajectory upwards and ultimately had a career-best season. Roughead proved to be the bargain recruit of the year at fullback. Noble being uncovered in the mid-season rookie draft and being plucked from the SANFL proved an inspired choice. Wills saved his career by taking advantage of the spot that opened up for him in Beams’ and Sier’s absence.
Just don’t mention Crisp missing out on AA selection to me though.
2020 Playing List

Guernsey Player Typical position Games played Age at start of R1, 2020 Contracted until
1 Jaidyn Stephenson Forward 40 21 2021
2 Jordan De Goey Forward 88 24 2020
3 Isaac Quaynor Defender 4 20 2022
4 Brodie Grundy Ruck 132 25 2027 (UFA)
5 Jamie Elliott Forward 105 27 2021 (UFA)
6 Tyler Brown Midfielder 0 20 2020
7 Adam Treloar Midfielder 163 27 2025 (RFA)
8 Tom Langdon Defender 89 25 2021 (RFA)
9 John Noble (a) Defender 5 22 2021
10 Scott Pendlebury* (c) Midfielder 301 32 2021 (UFA)
11 Dayne Beams* Midfielder 177 30 2022
12 Matthew Scharenberg Defender 38 24 2020
13 Taylor Adams (l) Midfielder 132 26 2024 (RFA)
14 Darcy Cameron Ruck 1 24 2021
15 Lynden Dunn (a, l) Defender 196 32 2020 (UFA)
16 Chris Mayne Midfielder 217 31 2020
17 Callum Brown Midfielder 35 21 2020
18 Travis Varcoe Forward 221 31 2020
19 Levi Greenwood Defender 152 31 2020
20 Ben Reid* Forward 150 30 2020 (UFA)
21 Tom Phillips Midfielder 74 23 2021
22 Steele Sidebottom* (vc) Midfielder 234 29 2021 (UFA)
23 Jordan Roughead Defender 162 29 2020
24 Josh Thomas Forward 89 28 2021 (UFA)
25 Jack Crisp Defender 134 26 2023 (UFA)
26 Josh Daicos Forward 17 21 2020
27 Will Kelly Defender 0 19 2022
28 Nathan Murphy Defender 2 20 2020
29 Tim Broomhead (a) Forward 36 25 2020 (UFA)
30 Darcy Moore Defender 71 24 2020
31 Flynn Appleby (a) Defender 10 21 2020
32 Will Hoskin-Elliott Forward 119 26 2022
33 Rupert Wills Midfielder 15 26 2020
34 Trent Bianco Defender 0 19 2021
35 Jay Rantall Midfielder 0 18 2021
36 Brayden Sier Midfielder 18 22 2021
37 Brayden Maynard Defender 97 23 2022 (RFA)
38 Jeremy Howe (l) Defender 183 29 2021
39 Trey Ruscoe Defender 0 18 2021
40 Atu Bosenavulagi Forward 0 19 2020
41 Brody Mihocek (a) Forward 40 27 2020
43 Anton Tohill (a) Forward 0 20 2020
44 Jack Madgen (b) Defender 8 26 2020
45 Max Lynch Ruck 0 21 2020
46 Mason Cox Forward 58 29 2020
47 Mark Keane (b) Defender 0 20 2020
48 Tom Wilson (b) Forward 0 22 2021
\ - 2010 Premiership player*
a - Category A Rookie
b – Category B rookie
c – Captain
vc – Vice Captain
l – Leadership group
Outs for 2020
James Aish Traded to Fremantle
Ben Crocker Delisted (rookie drafted by the Adelaide Crows)
Lynden Dunn Delisted (rookie listed under SSP rules)
Tyson Goldsack Retired (now playing as captain-coach for Port Magpies in the SANFL)
Sam Murray Delisted (now playing for Williamstown in the VFL)
Daniel Wells Retired (now involved in indigenous recruitment and development at Collingwood)
Ins for 2020
Trent Bianco National Draft
Darcy Cameron Traded from the Sydney Swans
Lynden Dunn Rookie listed under SSP rules
Jay Rantall National Draft
Trey Ruscoe National Draft
Tom Wilson Category B rookie selection
Pragmatic_Shill**’s personal best 22 (+ 4 emergencies) for Collingwood in 2020**
B: Langdon* Roughead Howe
HB: Crisp Moore Maynard
C: Phillips Pendelbury Sidebottom
HF: Hoskin-Elliott Mihocek De Goey
F: Stephenson Cox Elliott
FOLL: Grundy Adams Beams*
INT: C Brown Treloar Noble Mayne
EMER: Thomas Varcoe* Sier Greenwood*
\ Confirmed unavailable for Round 1 2020*
Notes on this selection
Players to watch for 2020
Taken at pick 13 in the 2018 draft after matching a bid from GWS, Quaynor looms as one of Collingwood’s most exciting young prospects. He had to wait for a debut in 2019 and only played a handful of games before a foot stress injury sidelined him for the rest of the season, however the senior appearances he made showed that he fits in nicely to the backline. Quaynor unfortunately has already had an interrupted pre-season due to hip surgery, but is expected to be fit to play come Round 1. While he is an impressive young talent I personally have a concern about whether he and John Noble can play in the same side. Both are undersized defenders used to provide run off halfback, and I haven’t seen either of them deployed in the lockdown small defensive role that has opened up with Levi Greenwood being out injured and James Aish moving to Fremantle. Noble at this stage has more senior experience (plus finals experience) so it will be interesting to see how selection goes when both are fit and available.
Wills holds the record for most tackles laid on debut and in 2018 broke the record for fewest senior games played to reach 100 career tackles. At the start of the year, Wills’ card appeared marked for delisting given his inability to break into the senior side. He came in for a short stint in early 2019 to play a similar role to De Goey when De Goey was injured, however Wills isn’t as explosive and he struggled playing in the forward line. After being dropped, I thought that would be it for him, however an injury crisis with the midfield later in the year (including Beams, Adams and a lacklustre season from Sier) opened up a spot for him, and he played right through to the end of the season. Wills provided much needed grunt for a midfield that failed to live up to expectations for much of the season, and truly earned another extension. His 2020 campaign will be one to watch, as he only managed a one-year extension despite his impressive showing, and given he will be directly competing for a spot with the younger Sier, he is under pressure to continue his senior career. Nevertheless, when he does play he doesn’t look out of place and was an impressive player in weeks when so many others were substandard.
This selection is a bit out of left field, however I didn’t want to repeat last year’s selections of Tyler Brown or Nathan Murphy (even though I am excited to see what their 2020 seasons look like). A lot of regular VFL watchers over on the Collingwood BigFooty have been impressed with Keane, our Irish Category B key defender. Keane apparently is not afraid to be quite physical on the field and showed marked improvement as a lockdown defender through 2019 despite our VFL side being disappointing. Some have said he may even earn a debut in 2020, which would require a temporary senior promotion over the more experienced Category B in Jack Madgen. Watch this space.
Players on notice for 2020
Sier came into the 2019 season with a lot of expectation and excitement from Collingwood fans after his long-awaited senior debut in 2018 showed why Derek Hine rated him highly enough to be our first pick in 2015 despite being relatively unknown. Mystery soon set in during the 2019 pre-season however, as Sier found himself excluded from selection in both JLT matches, despite being fit enough to play in a VFL practice match the day before one of them. The club said he had little niggles such as rib and toe issues, however comments from Pendlebury about Sier needing to demonstrate his commitment to the team on-field raised some eyebrows about whether he was out of favour. When he finally earned his senior return on the Queen’s Birthday, he took the opportunity with both hands, however had disappointing showings for the few games he had after. Then came the infamous “Phil Inn” incident, where he played social basketball while meant to be rehabbing a calf injury. The club claimed he wasn’t banned from senior selection but didn’t even appear in the emergency list for the rest of the season. Despite this, he signed for a further two years. Given the amount of time he’s had on the list and the various challenges he’s faced in that time, you would hope the penny has dropped and he begins to show on a more consistent basis the type of player he can be. That’s up to him now, however he also faces the added challenge of beating an in-favour Rupert Wills for selection as the big-bodied inside midfielder.
I think Cox was unfairly maligned in 2019 – he missed many games, first through an ankle injury and then through a scratched retina, however ended up with the same goal output at the end of the season as he had for 2018 (a season in which he only missed two games). However, it’s clear that there are expectations being placed on him by the media and by Collingwood fans to more consistently show the type of game he had in the 2018 preliminary final. During the 2019 trade period, Collingwood brought in Darcy Cameron from the Sydney Swans, and while Cameron has only played one senior game of football, he is a more natural footballer than Cox and will be competing directly for his spot. Off the field, I feel that Cox has to prove his worth after the details of his contract came out during the same trade period after Essendon came knocking for him to fill their ruck spot. At the end of 2017, Cox signed a new three-year contract which elevated him to the senior list, worth $500,000 a year. At this time, Cox was a Category B rookie who had played a grand total of twenty games. His contract also stipulates that he only needs to play one more senior game for a fourth year trigger, and he’ll need to show a bit more if he’s to convince Collingwood supporters that he’s worth such a hefty price tag given the continuing narrative of our salary cap issues.
This is perhaps a cop-out answer but given the impending salary cap squeeze the onus is on the rest of the players out of contract in 2020 (particularly the ones that aren’t best 22) to step up and cement their spot in the side or prove their value to the squad. Some, such as Brody Mihocek and Callum Brown can probably consider themselves safe. Mihocek himself may prove to be challenging as he will require promotion to the senior list to stay and given he was a latecomer to AFL he may choose to take a significantly priced contract elsewhere if it was offered to him.
A number of players have been on the list for a number of years now, including Tim Broomhead and Josh Daicos, that would find themselves very much under the pump in 2020. Other fringe players like Appleby, Madgen, (both requiring senior promotion if they stay), Murphy, Bosenavulagi, Tohill and Keane face uncertain futures. There are also many players out of contract (Reid, Greenwood, Varcoe, Mayne, Dunn) that are in the twilight of their careers, and these players could be the first shown the door if the cap gets too tight. The problem with showing all five of these senior players the door at once, however, is that being gifted picks at the arse end of one solitary draft to fill the list spots might not provide the same quality of depth (even over a long period of time) that keeping some of the experienced veterans on would.
2020 fixture preview
Marsh Community Series matches
Date Opponent Home or Away Where Time
Sunday 1 March Richmond Away Norm Minns Oval 4:10pm (AEDT)
Sunday 8 March St Kilda Home Morwell Recreation Reserve 3:50pm (AEDT)
Notable matches during the 2020 Premiership Season
Date Occasion Opponent Home or Away Where Time
Friday 20 March Round 1 Western Bulldogs Away Marvel 7:50pm (AEDT)
Thursday 9 April Easter Thursday Brisbane Lions Away Gabba 7:35pm (AEDT)
Saturday 25 April ANZAC Day Essendon Home MCG 4:20PM (AEDT)
Monday 8 June Queen's Birthday Melbourne Away MCG 3:20pm (AEDT)
Bye: Round 13
Double-ups:
2020 season preview (expectations and concerns)
2020 shapes as a fascinating year for the club both on- and off-field. On-field there would be genuine expectations both internally and externally that the club makes finals and pushes for a flag for a third season in a row. Personally, I don’t feel that we have improved our list through trading or drafting and instead will need to rely on improvement from the existing players to take the next step. With the oldest list in the competition, it is time for the youth at the club to stake their claims more seriously through strong performances at training and in the twos, rather than wait for positions to become available by default through injuries at senior level. This requires genuine steps up from the likes of Brayden Sier, Tyler Brown and Josh Daicos, as well as a willingness of the coaches to begin managing the constant selection of older players.
Our opening month to the season is as tough as it gets, and may define how the rest of the season plays out. If we start 0-4, I wonder how much of a hit to the self-confidence it will be and our ability to recover.
Off-field, as mentioned, list manager Ned Guy will have his work cut out for him in trying to balance a large out of contract list with players wanting and genuinely deserving substantial pay days, and there is a reasonable chance we could see significant changes to our list at the end of the year which will ultimately have a flow-on effect on our ability to contend in the following years.
The club continues to be distracted with undesirable media stories and the ongoing issue of Beams returning to the club continues to drag on. I get the feeling personally that there is a power of work being done behind the scenes to end the contract that still has three seasons left to run, both for the good of the club and for Beams’ wellbeing. While that is ongoing, however, it remains an unnecessary distraction and a sore reminder that the President continues to be too involved in the administration of the football department.
All in all, I think Collingwood will stay in the 8 but would not be surprised if they fall short of top 4. I don’t see the potential for improvement that I do from other clubs around the same mark. The year will be a positive one, however, if we begin seeing signs that the club can develop a strong side to transition into the ever-close “post-Pendlebury era.”
Thank you to the guys doing the St Kilda season preview for adjusting their schedule to allow me to recover from surgery and complete this.
Thanks for reading the 2020 season preview for the Collingwood Magpies.
submitted by Pragmatic_Shill to AFL [link] [comments]

[S] Swoldow's Survivor: Barbados - Fans vs Favorites III

Bringing back one of the best themes for one last spin, we yet again have 10 fans of the show, facing off against 10 of their favorite players ever, suggested by you the viewer. Will the faves steamroll the fans again, or will a fan rise up and win their first time? Find out below!

MEET THE CAST:
Fanatik Tribe:
Renmen Tribe:

THE SEASON: http://brantsteele.net/survivocaramoan/r.php?c=e1TdI0XD

Episode 1:
Ten players are all boated to a remote beach in the Barbados island, with one commonality; they are all superfans of the show. Upon getting there, these fans immediately start speculating who they are up against, and they are filled with a nostalgia trip when the favorites come in one by one, for one final matchup between fans and favorites.
At the Fanatik tribe, the fans get busy building the shelter, but as the shelter goes up, alliances already start to form. Jace and Kyle develop a mutual relationship, and the two plan to build a strong four person alliance. They both admit to eachother they are mental players, so they decide to look for physical players they can easily control and have them do their dirty work. Upon hearing everyone's occupations, they decide to rope in Lucas and Tianna to form a four person group. Monique and Tortia realize what is going on, and are immediately thrust into hopping on the alliance train. Monique sees Zoey as a huge meatshield, as her field of study could mark her as a threat. Tortia also grows close with Mac, and another four person alliance forms. Max and Olivia are the only people without allies, due to people being scared of Max's reputation as a reviewer, and Olivia's rashness has made people distant from her.
The favorites at Renmen start getting a bit more particular on who they want to work with. Paris knows that there are two duos with pre-existing relationships: Bailey and Seppe, and Demi and Jack. She also knows that both duos don't exactly like eachother very much, so Paris immediately starts to bond with Bailey and Demi, and an all girls alliance forms between the three of them. Meanwhile, Prat and Seppe don't want to start the game in the minority, like what happened their first time playing, so the two of them rope in Elden, who doesn't exactly trust Seppe, but is glad he has a solid group, and another three person alliance is formed. Cris, Michelle, Jack, and Steve are on the outs, but for different reasonings. Cris is scared of her position on a tribe with other good players, and is too scared to actually bond with anyone, and Michelle and Steve are seen as too big of threats to keep around. Michelle is the most strategic person on that beach, and Steve is the most physical, so naturally, nobody wants them to get far. Jack is just a naturally shifty and untrustworthy guy, and just like his first time, wasn't approached by anyone for an alliance. He doesn't care however, and sneaks out to find an idol on day 1 yet again, finding it successfully.
Fanatik wins the first immunity, sending Renmen to tribal council. Right off the bat, everyone starts strategizing, and wanting a voting block, Michelle ropes in a foursome of the tribe's outsiders of her, Cris, Jack, and Steve, wanting Seppe to be the first one to go. Cris, wanting a good spot in a group, and not fully trusting Michelle and Jack, however, decides to try and get in good graces with everyone, by telling Seppe and Demi what Michelle is planning. Not wanting a four person faction to overpower their smaller alliances, both Seppe and Demi alert this to their alliances, and both alliances meet up to try and get Michelle out, as she is the one leading the charge against everyone else. After Paris gets knowledge that Cris was the one who told them of the plan, Paris and Cris have a side-conversation, where Paris thanks Cris for providing her with knowledge, and she would gladly let her into the all-girls alliance. Cris is overjoyed she has a group of people to rely on, and promises she will vote with them. Steve begins to notice how close Cris is getting with Paris, Demi, and Bailey, and gets skeptical. He asks Michelle if they can change the plan to Cris, as she seems suspicious, but Michelle is adamant about voting for Seppe. Steve decides to vote for Cris anyway. At tribal, Michelle is sent home in a 7-2-1 vote.

Episode 2:
After the tribal, Cris is overly grateful to Paris for letting her into the group, but Bailey and Demi have a side-conversation, saying that they believe Paris is playing way too hard, too early, and both girls grow to trust her less due to her backdoor deals. Meanwhile, the alliance of Seppe, Prat, and Elden is glad Cris snitched on Michelle, as now she is made out to look like an untrustworthy fool in front of the others on the bottom that put their trust into her. Jack berates Cris for blindsiding him, and Cris apologizes, but now wants to work with him less. On Fanatik, Jace manages to sneak out and find his tribe's idol, and while he's gone, Tianna and Lucas start to second guess their position in the tribe. They believe they could be potentially be set up by Jace and Kyle, and both no longer trust them, dissolving the alliance. Zoey also is only talking game to people, instead of trying to get to know them, and is playing way too hard right out of the gate, which rubs everyone the wrong way.
Fanatik wins their second individual immunity, sending the favorites back to tribal. Bailey, Demi, and Paris immediately meet up and discuss their next plan, and they agree that instead of targeting the outsiders, the three of them need to try and topple the opposing alliance of Seppe, Elden, and Prat. The three girls talk to Cris about the vote, and Cris is willing to vote for someone from said alliance. They debate on who to target, and the four of them agree that Elden is the biggest threat compared to Seppe and Prat, as he is both strategic and physical, which can be a deadly combination. Meanwhile, Seppe, Prat, and Elden all believe that the three of them can monopolize on the fact that Cris blindsided Jack and Steve, and try to convince them to vote out Cris. Both Cris and Seppe approach Jack and Steve with their respective plans, and the outcasts are suddenly the ones in control of the vote. Despite Jack wanting to get his revenge on Cris, Steve tells him that if they can get out Elden, one of the alliances has less power, and they get two easy votes for any other pre-merge tribals they go to, that likely wont be them, as they will be needed for challenge wins. Jack reluctantly agrees, and Elden is voted out in a 6-3 vote.

Episode 3:
Seppe and Prat are shocked over what happened at tribal. They thought there was a 100% chance Jack and Steve would vote with them, but now they both know not to trust him. Given that the next vote is either one of them, or Jack and Steve, both Seppe and Prat decide that they have to make sure the votes go to Jack if they go to tribal again. At the fans tribe, Monique is beginning to notice that the other four person group imploded on itself, and starts to get paranoid the same thing can happen to her group. This causes a fight between her and Tortia, which leads to them realizing they have to stick together or else the tribe would become anarchy. Renmen wins their first immunity, sending the fans to tribal council. Kyle starts to take notice of how much Zoey is playing, and starts to plant ideas into people's heads to take Zoey out. Upon hearing his rumors, Monique immediately doesn't trust him, and gets her alliance to vote for Kyle. Zoey's gamebot mode has rubbed everyone the wrong way, however, and everyone on the outs trusts her less, leading to Jace successfully convincing his old alliance that Zoey is a bigger threat. Lucas and Tianna talk with outsiders Max and Olivia, and successfully manage to have them on board with the vote too. Zoey is sent home in a 6-4 vote.

Episode 4:
With Zoey gone, the Monique-Tortia-Mac alliance has incredibly low morale. They know they can't be picked on one by one, so they desperately try to find a person perceived as a threat they can try to throw under the bus. At Renmen, Prat decides to use previous relationships as a way to advance his agenda, and talks with Demi about how she feels about Jack. Demi, a little hotheaded from her blindside orchestrated by him in Koah Rong, says she would vote him out in a heartbeat after he broke her trust. With this knowledge, Prat and Seppe are happy they can flip the game where they want. Fanatik wins reward but Renmen wins immunity sending the fans back to tribal. Monique has a side conversation with Max and Olivia asking for their vote, as five is enough, and in return, lets them decide who to go. Max and Olivia think hard about this, and they decide that Lucas should be the one to go, as his cultural barrier lets him be more distant from the main group, and is unlikely to be seen coming, in case an idol play happens. Olivia, however, has different plans. She wants the plan to implode in Monique's face, and tells Kyle their plan. Kyle however, wants to go along with it, with the ulterior motive of forcing those on the bottom to be loyal to him. Jace, Lucas, and Tianna all agree that Tortia is the biggest threat, and they tell Kyle their plan, but its no use. Lucas goes out in a 6-3 vote.

Episode 5:
Jace is shocked that Lucas would be the one who went last tribal, and immediately knew that Kyle was the one who flipped on him. An argument between Jace and Kyle breaks out, and he debates weather working with Kyle is a good idea. Meanwhile, Kyle accredits himself with putting Max and Olivia in a better position, and tells them that they now have to be loyal to him in return, and Olivia doesn't believe it one bit. She knows that her and Max are in a bad spot, but also knows that she would rather play the game for herself than for Kyle's benefit. At Renmen, Demi, Paris, and Bailey start their usual planning, and Demi brings up Jack's name, saying the longer he is in the game, the more powerful he gets. Both girls are willing to help her get Jack out, and his antics continue to rub everyone the wrong way when Paris starts to get a read on him, thinking he is hiding something. Fanatik wins immunity, sending the favorites to tribal. Jack and Steve approach Paris, Demi, and Bailey about voting off Cris due to being way too unpredictable, but since the girls have a bond with Cris, there is no turning back. They talk to Prat and Seppe, saying that they are going to vote for Jack, and both guys are overjoyed, telling them that is their plan too. Paris tells Cris she is getting targeted by Jack, and Cris naturally wants to play defensively. At tribal, Jack gets a read of the room, and believes something is off, so he plays his idol, negating 6 votes, and unfortunately eliminating Cris in a sad, premature 2-0 vote.

Episode 6:
Everyone is flabbergasted over what just happened, and this pushes everyone to want Jack out even more. A mad dash for the newly hidden idol occurs at camp, and Steve ends up being the one who finds the idol. Meanwhile, at the fans tribe, Tianna and Jace are still confused on why Kyle flipped on them, and Olivia uses this as an opportunity to psychologically weaken them by rubbing it in their faces, which both fans aren't happy with. This causes a fight between Olivia and Tianna to take place. Fanatik wins reward, but Renmen wins immunity. The fans go back to tribal, where lines are clearly drawn to the sand. Max is thankful that Kyle gave him a shot at actually playing the game, and the two plan on working together to get out another member of the majority, Mac. Monique, Mac, and Tortia want to get this duo of Kyle and Max out, gunning for Max in case Kyle has the idol, and the duo of Jace and Tianna want Tortia out for being super strategic. This leaves Olivia in the middle of everything. She is approached by Tortia, Jace, and Kyle about their respective plans, and she can either vote for Max and establish a new majority, or vote for Mac or Tortia and force a tie. Ultimately, wanting her game to be safe, Olivia flips on her allies, sending Max home in a 4-2-2 vote.

Episode 7:
The tribes swap, and now fans and favorites are getting to play together. The new Fanatik now has Bailey, Demi, Monique, Olivia, Paris, Steve, and Tortia, while the new Renmen now has Seppe, Jack, Jace, Kyle, Mac, Prat, and Tianna.
At Fanatik, the favorites have majority 4-3, and Steve wants to finally integrate himself into a majority group, He talks with Demi, and apologizes about working with Jack, and the two are able to forgive eachother, and form a new bond. Meanwhile, Monique and Tortia aren't having the easiest time working with Olivia, as she has been seen to be extremely unpredictable, rude, and not have their priorities in mind. Because of this, Monique and Tortia are quick to start getting to know Bailey, Demi, and Paris, and the five girls immediately start growing close.
At Renmen, the fans have control of the tribe, leaving Jack, Seppe, and Prat subject to however they want to vote. Jace and Tianna are the only fans that are currently aligned together, but both Kyle and Mac know it would be foolish to give up the majority, especially after two straight seasons of favorites in the minority manipulating their fans during the tribe swap. A four person alliance between Jace, Tianna, Mac, and Kyle is formed. Prat and Seppe have no intentions of flipping, but they know first hand how dangerous Jack can be, so Seppe, during a talk with Jace, tells him about Jack's idol play, saying he also could potentially have the rehidden idol as well. This scares Jace, and he thanks Seppe for the information.
Renmen wins immunity, sending Fanatik to tribal. Right off the bat, Olivia approaches Paris, saying she wants to make a move and put the votes on Tortia, who is the most strategic fan by a longshot. Paris is taken aback by Olivia's offer, and she holds a chat with Demi, Steve, and Bailey to assess their options. Due to their gained bonds with Tortia and Monique, and how abrasive Olivia was when talking to Paris, everyone immediately knew that Olivia is the least trustworthy of the three favorites. They confirm to Tortia and Monique they will be working with them, and Olivia is sent home unanimously in a 6-1 vote.

Episode 8:
With Olivia gone, Demi wants as many allies as possible going into the merge, so she does more around camp to be seen as a provider, and gets to know both of the remaining fans of her tribe, who would love to work with her when the merge hits. Meanwhile, at Renmen, Kyle starts acting shady, and makes backdoor deals with Prat, Seppe, and Jack, which people start to notice, and are rubbed the wrong way by his antics. Fanatik wins both reward and immunity, sending Renmen to tribal. Jace has a talk with Mac and Tianna, saying that despite Kyle's shadiness, the fans need to stick together, as giving up a majority is completely idiotic. Everyone else agrees, and decides that Jack is the best bet. Prat and Seppe approach Kyle and Jace, and they talk about a plan. Both Seppe and Prat say they are willing to flip on Jack if need be, as he is a big physical threat, and the merge is likely coming up. Not wanting to blindside either of them, and seeing them as worthy allies, Jace sticks to the plan, but still is worried people could flip on him. Jace mistakenly plays his idol, and Jack is voted out in a unanimous 6-1 vote.

Episode 9:
The tribes merge, and for the first time ever, there is an even split between the fans and the favorites. The alliance of Demi, Bailey, and Paris immediately start considering their future options, and realize that staying in tribal lines could be disastrous for them, as Prat and Seppe making the end could lead them to being overshadowed. Given the cohesiveness of the previous vote, plus Steve's willingness to work with them, they rope in the members of their swapped tribe, Monique and Tortia, and ask if they're willing to integrate into their alliance. Both fans are overjoyed, as it gets them farther, as well as gets them meatshields to tank their votes. Wanting as many options as possible, Monique starts to bond with Seppe, who plans to use this backdoor talk to paint a target on her back. Seppe and Prat want Steve to be the first person to go at merge, given his reputation with immunity challenges, and they give this plan to their tribemates at the swap. Jace is glad they aren't targeting him despite his bad idol play, and everyone swapped onto Renmen decides that is the optimal plan. Bailey wins the first immunity challenge, barely beating Steve, and Seppe and Prat's plan to get Steve out slowly starts working. Prat tells Paris of their plan, thinking he can trust her, but Paris wants Steve as an ally to cut at a later time. As a result, Paris asks Tortia and Monique who they see as the biggest threat, and they both say they want Tianna out, as it weakens those in opposition to their original alliance, and it takes out a major physical threat. With the two fans quickly roping in Mac from their original alliance, Tianna is voted out in a 7-5 vote, just one tribal short of the jury.

Episode 10:
With the fans down 8-7, Kyle doesn't want to lose any numbers, so he decides that now is the option to make a move. Bailey, Demi, Prat, Kyle, and Paris win reward, and on reward, Kyle listens into Bailey, Demi, and Paris bonding, and knows for sure he can use this to try and get Steve to turn on them. Monique wins the next immunity challenge, narrowly beating Steve, and with Steve at risk to get voted out, Kyle makes his move. He tells Steve that looking at it from a logical standpoint, Steve has no shot at making final three if the final four is between him, Bailey, Demi, and Paris. Steve realizes this, thanks Kyle for telling him, and states he is ready to stop coasting on immunity wins and make a move. He asks Kyle if voting for Bailey would be a good idea, and Kyle says he can rally up the fans to get the numbers needed. Immediately, Kyle tells Bailey about what Steve is planning, and not wanting to go home, Bailey trusts him and tells the rest of the favorites about this. Through utilization of the connections that the fans and faves had at swap, Seppe and Demi are able to get everyone on board with voting Steve, except for Mac, who is approached by Kyle, asking if he wants to take part in a gamebreaking move, and he immediately says yes, wanting something on his resume. Right before tribal, Steve shows Kyle and Mac his idol, and Kyle recommends playing it just in case. At tribal, Steve plays his idol, which shocks everyone, negating 8 votes, and making Bailey the first juror in a 3-0 vote.

Episode 11:
Kyle's plan worked, and now Steve is public enemy number one between both the fans and the favorites, as Kyle sits back and watches the chaos ensue. Wanting to ensure he makes it past another day, Prat goes looking for the idol and finds it, hoping he can make good use of it, similarly to how he did in Caramoan. Prat, Tortia, Monique, Jace, and Mac win reward, and Prat makes sure that everyone is on the same page in voting for Steve. Everyone is in agreement, but Steve wins the next immunity challenge, sending the whole tribe into chaos. The faves naturally want a fan out, and Seppe is pushing for Monique, but Prat fights him over it, knowing that Monique is close with Paris and Demi. Eventually Prat gives up and Seppe asks the girls about their willingness to get a Monique out, and they are hesitant at first, but they do believe that this vote could break up a major bond from a day one alliance, and leave the fans disunited, and more able to manipulate. Seppe also tells this plan to his swapped tribe, who are all members of the minority while Monique and Tortia were in power, and are ready to take out the people on top of the fans tribe. Mac also is willing to flip on them, as he believes his swap alliance to be way more cohesive. Kyle gives them a decoy plan to vote Mac for being a physical threat, and as a result, Monique is blindsided, becoming the second juror in an 8-2 vote.

Episode 12:
Tortia feels blindsided, but knows that if Steve didn't win immunity, Monique would still be in the game, and the girls would be in the top 5 together. Demi apologizes to Tortia for the move, and Tortia understands where she came from, and is still willing to put her trust into Demi. Kyle wins immunity, and Jace suddenly feels like he has no say in the game, and the favorites are dictating the vote. This causes him to isolate himself from the tribe, leading people to lose trust in him. Prat and Seppe immediately start throwing Steve's name out as long as they can, and they successfully manage to rally Jace and Kyle to vote with them, but Mac feels unsure, as he wants to keep working with Steve. He decides to just throw a vote for Seppe out instead. Steve, however, isn't going without a fight. Demi, Paris, and Tortia realize that as long as Steve is in the game, they're less likely to get votes, so the three of them rope in Steve to vote out another physical threat in Mac. Due to Mac's sole vote for Seppe, votes between Steve and Mac tie at tribal council, and Steve is sent to the third jury seat in a 4-3 revote, with nobody flipping.

Episode 13:
The number of fans and faves is tied 4-4, and Seppe, scared that singular vote cast against him could lead to many more, wins immunity. Kyle, not wanting to go to rocks has a talk with the faves about how he is willing to turn on Mac if it lets him live another day, and the favorites are into that plan, since Mac is a physical threat, but Demi convinces everyone that Kyle isn't to be trusted to begin with, as he could be lying to their faces. Seppe slips to Mac that Kyle wants him gone, and Mac, not knowing what he did wrong, is aided by Jace and Tortia, who are also done with Kyle's antics. Kyle becomes the fourth juror in a unanimous 7-1 vote.
Seppe wins his second immunity in a row, and he is now on Paris and Demi's radar as a challenge threat. Demi and Paris decide to detach from Seppe and Prat, and want to vote out Mac for being good at challenges, and a potential meatshield, alongside Tortia. Seppe and Prat want to make use of the fact that Jace is an easy to vote off outsider that has no leeway, and cant take control from anyone with an alliance, Mac, finally wanting Jace gone, decides to vote with Seppe as thanks for warning him about Kyle. This leaves Jace in the middle, who decides to vote Prat, informing Paris and Demi about a potential Prat blindside. The girls consider it, but still see Mac as a bigger threat. Wanting a better relationship with Prat, Demi tells him of Jace's plan. As an emergency plan, Prat misplays his idol, negating only Jace's vote. Votes for Mac and Jace tie 3-3, and yet again, nobody switches on the revote, sending Mac to the fifth jury seat in a 3-2 revote.

Episode 14:
It is the final six, and it is getting dangerously close to where Demi fell last time, so she takes no hesitations on being the most social person on the island. She wins reward and shares it with Seppe to specifically strengthen their relationship, and uses the nourishment from the reward to win immunity. Due to Prat misplaying the idol, Paris goes out looking for it, and manages to find the idol. Tortia, knowing there likely isn't a chance the fans can recover from this, makes final three deals with both Demi and Prat, and claims she is willing to take out Jace, as he is the easy vote with no allies left in the game. The favorites agree with her judgement, and Jace unanimously becomes the sixth juror in a 5-1 vote.

Finale:
Tortia is the last fan standing, and she is proud of this feat, as she gets to be the deciding vote between the feuding duos of Prat and Seppe, and Demi and Paris. She wants to get to the end with Prat and Demi ideally, as Seppe and Paris' strategic games could potentially make her lose. Demi wins the next immunity challenge, and both Prat and Seppe need her to be the next one to go. Paris and Demi celebrate, as Paris shows Demi her idol, saying that both of them are guaranteed final four, and the two decide that with the idol, Seppe will be ensured to go home. Tortia ends up deciding to vote with Demi and Paris, without knowing of Paris' idol. Paris plays her idol, negating two votes, and Seppe becomes the seventh juror in a 3-0 vote.
Demi continues her challenge streak, winning reward, which gives her an advantage in the challenge, which then helps her win the final immunity, guaranteeing her a spot in the final three. Prat assumes he will be the one to go, but Tortia has other plans, as she sees Paris as a huge strategic threat that has to go, or else she can win the whole thing. She talks with Prat, saying she will vote with him against Paris, and they will still uphold their final three deal they made prior. Votes tie between Prat and Paris 2-2, and they tie again 1-1 on the revote, meaning that a firemaking challenge will occur. After both players feverishly build their flame, Prat ultimately burns his rope first, eliminating Paris from the game.
The final three plead their cases to the jury on why they deserve the million dollars. Tortia uses the fact that she was the first and only first time playing fan to have ever made final three, and she deserves the win because she outlasted the rest of her tribe, and integrated into the favorites group when she needed to. Prat argues he started from the bottom at his second tribal, but worked his way to the top by integrating with his swapped tribemates, and earning his way into the final three through the firemaking challenge that sent a huge strategic threat packing. Meanwhile, Demi argued she played the social and physical games down to a T, fostering relationships with everyone, sticking with an alliance that formed day one all the way to the end, being in control of who goes home the majority of the time, and winning three immunity challenges and four reward challenges, adding up to 7 total challenge wins. While Prat and Tortia's underdog stories were nice, Demi is praised by the jury for the relationships she fostered. Demi Bourbon is crowned the winner of Swoldow's Survivor: Barbados in a 5-2-1 vote.
Steve wins fan favorite due to his impressive idol play, and how his singular immunity win broke the tribal dynamics.

Potential All-Stars:
The favorites, Tortia, Jace, Mac, Kyle, Monique

Potential Pre-Jury Gems:
Tianna, Olivia

Another great season, with an incredibly deserving win by Demi. I'm glad that many of the favorites got to redeem themselves, including Prat, Paris, and Seppe who all improved in placement. The favorites tribe in general was extremely fun to write, and might've been the strongest group yet, we've had for that tribe. Our next season will be going back to measuring certain archetypes and pitting them against eachother. With the addition of a mandatory firemaking challenge at final 4, our next season will be Swoldow's Survivor: Heroes vs Healers vs Hustlers.
submitted by swoldow to BrantSteele [link] [comments]

Week 14 Matchup Strategy Guide - Part 2

Part 2 of 3

Part 1 Right Here: https://dfaroto.com/nfl/week-14-matchup-strategy-guide-part-1

Part 3 Right Here: https://dfaroto.com/nfl/week-14-matchup-strategy-guide-part-3**

GLOSSARY
DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) calculates a team's success based on the down-and-distance of each play during the season, then calculates how much more or less successful each team is compared to the league average.
DVOA Pass/Run Defense Rank: Team’s NFL rank in DVOA pass or run defense so far this season. #1 means best DEF against the pass/run, #32 means worst DEF against the pass/run.
ATS = Against the spread
DVOA from https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef/2019

Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns (-8.5)

Bengals ATS: 5-7-1 Browns ATS: 4-7-1
Projected Team Totals: Bengals 16.25 Browns 24.75

Bengals

Opp (CLE) Pass DVOA: #11
Opp (CLE) Run DVOA: #23
Injuries to Watch DEF (CLE): None
Injuries to Watch OFF (CIN): AJ Green (OUT)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Tyler Boyd (22%) Auden Tate (20%) Alex Erickson (14%) Tyler Eifert (11%) Joe Mixon (8%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 13: Joe Mixon (79%, 23, 4) Gio Bernard (20%, 2, 2)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The Bengals somewhat surprisingly made a move to improve their chances of winning games down the stretch, benching struggling rookie Ryan Finley for Andy Dalton (2 QB only). The move paid off last week as they finally won their first game of the year. Dalton operated as more of a game-manager than a gunslinger, and appears headed for a similar role in a game where the Bengals have one of the lowest projected team totals of the week. The Browns aren’t an imposing matchup - giving up the 11th most FPPG to QBs this season - but Dalton isn’t in the streaming conversation outside of deep 2 QB leagues. Leave him on the wire.
Zac Taylor’s offense hasn’t produced much of note this year, but some of that is due to injuries. AJ Green has wisely stayed off the field and appears likely to call it a year and try to land a big contract. John Ross has missed most of the year with a shoulder injury, but is projected to return this week after being activated from IR. That has left Tyler Boyd (PPR) and Auden Tate (stash) to lead the charge through a lost season. With Ross back, Tate becomes a much less appealing WR3 option, but his steady play and impressive catches should keep him on the field. Boyd has been able to carve out some low-end WR2 value this season, but much of that has been volume based. It is clear, however, the entire passing game gets a boost now that Dalton is back under center. Individual matchups are unlikely to play a role, as the Browns haven’t been shadowing as much this year. They aren’t a scary matchup either, ranking middle of the pack in pass DVOA and FPPG allowed to WRs. Boyd is on the WR2/3 borderline in PPR leagues, Tate is a low-end WR3, and Ross is only a dart throw WR4/5 in his first game back from injury. Proceed with caution, but there might be some decent value here down the stretch. Tyler Eifert isn’t a fantasy option at this point.
RB Breakdown
Certainly not what owners hoped for when they drafted him, but the last 5 games for Joe Mixon (volume upgrade) have returned steady RB2 value. He’s averaging 22 touches a week during that stretch, and a few additional red zone touches have helped to boost his value. The Browns aren’t stout against the run - ranking bottom third by DVOA - so the bigger concern is potential negative game-script and low projected point total. Still, he’s the best bet for a TD among Bengals’ skill players, and has the talent to make something out of nothing a few times a game. View Mixon as a volume-based RB2, and plug him into lineups unless you are stacked at the position. Gio Bernard is a must-handcuff for Mixon owners (due to his 3-down ability), but has zero standalone value at this point.

Browns

Opp (CIN) Pass DVOA: #31
Opp (CIN) Run DVOA: #27
Injuries to Watch DEF (CIN): DE Sam Hubbard (Q) S Shawn Williams (Q) S Brandon Wilson (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (CLE): OL Chris Hubbard (Q) OL J.C. Tretter (Q) WR Odell Beckham Jr. (Q, likely to play)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Jarvis Landry (30%) Odell Beckham (23%) Kareem Hunt (18%) Antonio Callaway (11%) Nick Chubb (8%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 13: Nick Chubb (59%, 17, 2) Kareem Hunt (65%, 12, 5)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The Browns season of disappointment continued last week with an ugly loss to Pittsburgh. Baker Mayfield (upgrade) was dinged up, but has practiced in full this week and should be good to go with little limitation on Sunday. The bigger issue is the clear lack of cohesion in the passing game in Cleveland, as Mayfield has struggled to connect with his talented duo of WRs throughout the year. The matchup with the Bengals offers some reason for optimism - they have given up the 7th most FPPG to QBs - but Mayfield is still a risky option in 1 QB leagues in the first week of playoffs. His ceiling is low due to the overall lack of offensive production, and his floor is dangerous with how many picks he’s thrown and the lack of rushing production. Consider him a high-end QB2 due to the matchup, but be sure to consider all options before plugging him into your lineup.
It feels crazy to even consider benching Odell Beckham Jr., but owners are surely fed up with his lack of production. Week 14 offers some upside based on the matchup - Bengals have the 31st ranked pass DVOA but cede the 10th fewest FPPG to WRs - but nothing is guaranteed with the Browns this year. Jarvis Landry (PPR upgrade) has been the more consistent producer of late, which makes sense given Mayfields tendency towards quick throws behind a porous offensive line. Beckham is best viewed as a WR2 this week, as he’s capable of blowing up any week, but his floor is lower than it should be. Landry is a solid WR2 in PPR leagues, and can be used as a WR3 in standard leagues; his ceiling isn’t the highest but his floor is higher than Beckham’s. It seems unlikely that David Njoku (stash) will be activated this week, but is worth rostering if you have the space. His backups are not fantasy options, so ignore this spot unless Njoku suits up, but even then be cautious.
RB Breakdown
It appears the Kareem Hunt (PPR upgrade) truthers have been validated; the former Chiefs Pro Bowl RB has siphoned significant touches from Nick Chubb (upgrade) during his four active games, and the results have been pretty impressive. Hunt isn’t getting the volume that Chubb is, but his big-play ability and pass game chops have helped him churn out solid flex value. Chubb remains in the low-end RB1 ranks, due to his consistent volume and talent, but his floor has been reduced by Hunt’s receiving presence. The Bengals have given up the 7th most FPPG to RBs, so both backs are on the radar this week. Hunt is more attractive in PPR leagues, where he’s a borderline RB2, but can still claim flex value in standard leagues. Chubb is an auto-start as long as he’s getting a majority of the work, and the plus matchup give his owners more confidence this week.
Score Prediction: Browns 24, Bengals 20

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-2.5)

Panthers ATS: 6-6-0 Falcons ATS: 4-8-0
Projected Team Totals: Panthers 22.75 Falcons 25.25

Panthers

Opp (ATL) Pass DVOA: #27
Opp (ATL) Run DVOA: #13
Injuries to Watch DEF (ATL): CB Desmond Trufant (Q, likely to play)
Injuries to Watch OFF (CAR): TE Greg Olsen (D) OL Greg Little (Q)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): D.J. Moore (27%) Christian McCaffrey (21%) Curtis Samuel (17%) Greg Olsen (14%) Jarius Wright (7%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 13: Christian McCaffrey (99%, 21, 13)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The second half of the season hasn’t been kind to the Panthers; after a solid start they’ve lost 5 of their last 6. Kyle Allen (2 QB only) had a solid game against the Redskins sub-par pass defense, but hasn’t inspired much trust from owners as a streamer, coming up short in multiple plus matchups. The Falcons have improved drastically on defense the past few weeks, but have still given up the 14th most FPPG to QBs the past four games. Allen is in play as a 2 QB streamer, but shouldn’t be in lineups in 1 QB leagues unless owners are absolutely desperate. The run-game is king with the Panthers, and Allen doesn’t have the ceiling (or the floor) to be an exciting start for owners at this point.
The uneven play at quarterback hasn’t stopped the Panthers from boasting two productive fantasy receivers. D.J. Moore (auto-start) has been the more consistent presence, and his recent hot stretch has him in the top-10 of WRs on the season in most formats. Curtis Samuel (upgrade standard) has been on the receiving end of the third most incomplete deep balls on the season (16), and although that hasn’t stopped him from producing a decent season, we’re consistently left wanting more with him (Rotoworld). The matchup is decent - the Falcons cede the 8th most FPPG to WRs and have a bottom barrel pass DVOA - but Atlanta was able to shut Allen down completely in Week 11 and have limited Drew Brees to a combined one TD in two games the past month. Moore has earned borderline WR1 status, especially so in PPR leagues, and should be in all lineups. Samuel is more of a boom-bust WR3 at this point, but is an upside play for those looking for a potential week-winning performance in their fantasy playoffs. Greg Olsen (injury downgrade) hasn’t been great this year, but his floor is higher than many at the position and he offers consistent production. However, he’s in danger of missing the game due to a concussion in Week 13. Keep an eye on injury reports, as Ian Thomas (possible upgrade) would become an intriguing TE1/2 streamer if Olsen sits. During a three week stretch without Olsen last season, Thomas was a solid TE1. Olsen is a decent but uninspiring TE2 if he plays.
RB Breakdown
There’s little argument at this point that Christian McCaffrey (auto-start) is the top RB in fantasy, and likely in real life as well. He plays near 100% snaps, and leads the league in scrimmage yards (by almost 300!) among skill players. Start him as always, and enjoy the ride. Roster Reggie Bonnafon as a handcuff if you have the space.

Falcons

Opp (CAR) Pass DVOA: #7
Opp (CAR) Run DVOA: #32
Injuries to Watch DEF (CAR): S Eric Reid (Q) DT Gerald McCoy (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (ATL): OL James Carpenter (Q) WR Julio Jones (Q, likely to play) TE Austin Hooper (Q, likely to play)
Key WCB matchups: Julio Jones vs. James Bradberry (Rotoworld)
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Julio Jones (22%) Calvin Ridley (20%) Russell Gage (17%) Austin Hooper (14%) Devonta Freeman (12%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 13: Devonta Freeman (67%, 21, 5) Brian Hill (26%, 7, 3)
QB/WTE Breakdown
With questions swirling around the future of head coach Dan Quinn, the Falcons veteran players continue to fight hard in a lost season. Matt Ryan has had an ugly real-life season, but still ranks in the QB1 range on the season. He gets a tough matchup against the Panthers this week - 7th best DVOA and 10th fewest FPPG allowed to QBs on the season - but should also get his top WR back. View Ryan as a low-end QB1, but one that will likely do enough this week to be worth starting unless owners have an elite alternative option. If Julio Jones sits again, however, his outlook should be downgraded.
In many situations, a team destined for a high draft pick would shut down their ailing stars and call it a season. Atlanta doesn’t fit that bill though, as they are playing for pride, and their head coach is playing for his job. That means there’s a Julio Jones (start if active) returns this week, even at less than 100%. The matchup is somewhat challenging - Panthers have the 7th best pass DVOA but give up the 11th most FPPG to WRs - and James Bradberry may shadow Jones. But if he’s in their lineup, he’s in your lineup. He’s simply too good to bench unless we hear word of a certain limitation on his snaps. Calvin Ridley (possible upgrade) picked up the slack with Jones out last week, and would get a boost with him on the sidelines again. If Jones does play, he’s still a solid WR2 as he’s scored in every game he’s played against the Panthers (Rotoworld). He should be in most lineups. Russell Gage (bench unless Jones sits) was useful last week in Jones’ stead, but would only have WR3 appeal if Jones sits again. If that’s the case, he’s still a risky start, but would have a decent target floor at least. Austin Hooper (start if active) is close to returning, and logged a limited practice on Thursday. If he returns, he immediately slots in as a top-8 TE1 with upside. If he sits, there isn’t a great fill-in option. Monitor this closely if you own Hooper, as it looks possible he’s ready to go on Sunday.
RB Breakdown
The Falcons run game has been an unmitigated disaster this year, and no back has been able to produce consistent value for Atlanta. Devonta Freeman (upgrade) is back close to full health and receiving a majority of the touches, but has failed to eclipse 100 yards from scrimmage in all but three healthy games, and is still without a rushing TD. He’s the clear leader of this backfield, but is tough to trust at this point. He gets perhaps his best matchup of the season this week - Carolina has the worst rush DVOA and has given up the 2nd most FPPG to RBs on the season. It’s a risky play, but Freeman is deserving of RB2 status based on the matchup and on his position as a home favorite. It would help if he got more targets, but as it is he should get 15+ touches and some quality rushing lanes considering the Panthers soft front seven. Get him in your lineups as an RB2/flex.
Score Prediction: Falcons 24, Panthers 21

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (-14)

Lions ATS: 5-7-0 Vikings ATS: 6-6-0
Projected Team Totals: Lions 14.25 Vikings 28.25

Lions

Opp (MIN) Pass DVOA: #14
Opp (MIN) Run DVOA: #9
Injuries to Watch DEF (MIN): S Harrison Smith (Q) DE Everson Griffen (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (DET): QB Matthew Stafford (OUT)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Marvin Jones (19%) Kenny Golladay (18%) Danny Amendola (18%) T.J. Hockenson (13%, IR) J.D. McKissic (11%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 13: Bo Scarbrough (47%, 21, 0) Ty Johnson (33%, 6, 3)
QB/WTE Breakdown
With Matt Stafford (back) dealing with an injury that has kept him out since Week 10, and Jeff Driskel being placed on IR with a hamstring, David Blough has taken control of the Lions offense for likely the rest of season. An undrafted rookie in his first NFL start, Blough didn’t look half-bad against an imposing Bears' defense on turkey day. Next up is another good defense, and it seems likely that the rookie regresses with teams having some tape on him. He’s not worthy of consideration in any format.
The good news for Kenny Golladay owners is that he balled out on 5 targets last week. The bad news is that he only got 5 targets. The Vikings have been roasted by wideouts this year, so it could be considered a smash spot - MIN gives up 25.4 FPPG to WRs - so get Golladay and Marvin Jones active. Expectations need to be tempered, however, as Jones himself only saw six targets. Both are upside WR3’s, but can’t be considered anything more, due to a rookie making his second start in a tough road matchup. T.J Hockenson (ankle) was placed on IR, ending his rookie season. Jesse James and Logan Thomas are expected to fill the void, but neither is a recommended stream until we find out where the volume is going.
RB Breakdown
Bo Scarbrough has performed a hostile takeover and is now the lead back for the Lions, relegating Ty Johnson and J.D. McKissic to complementary roles. He’s better suited to standard formats, as he has no role in the passing game. However, any running back receiving 20+ touches can be considered a solid flex in most leagues. The matchup isn’t good - MIN cedes just 16.9 FPPG to RBs. Plus, it’s likely that DET faces a negative game-script on the road, meaning Scarbrough would be phased out in a comeback bid. Still, he at least warrants flex consideration, but it’s recommended to go a different route if available.

Vikings

Opp (DET) Pass DVOA: #26
Opp (DET) Run DVOA: #20
Injuries to Watch DEF (DET): CB Jamal Agnew (Q) DL Da’Shawn Hand (Q) CB Rashaan Melvin (Q) DL Damon Harrison (Q, likely to play)
Injuries to Watch OFF (MIN): WR Adam Thielen (Q) OL Riley Reiff (Q) RB Dalvin Cook (Q)
Key WCB matchups: Stefon Diggs vs. Darius Slay (Rotoworld)
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Stefon Diggs (19%) Dalvin Cook (18%) Kyle Rudolph (14%) Irv Smith (12%) Bisi Johnson (12%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 13: Dalvin Cook (left early with injury) (44%, 12, 4) Alexander Mattison (49%, 8, 5)
QB/WTE Breakdown
Another primetime Monday night showdown, another loss for Kirk Cousins (upgrade). From a fantasy perspective, he was serviceable though, and gets a great matchup this week against the Lions. Detroit has given up the 8th most FPPG to QBs on the season, and rank in the bottom-tier in DVOAs pass defense metric. The loss of Adam Thielen, who looks likely to sit again this week, has lowered his ceiling slightly, but Cousins should still be viewed as a low-end QB1 with upside due to the plus matchup. He’s safe to plug in playoff lineups unless you have a top-8 alternative option.
The Vikings haven’t needed a high volume passing game in most of their games, and that has rendered Stefon Diggs an inconsistent WR2 this season. If Adam Thielen sits again, it’s tough to bench Diggs in any format considering his week-winning upside. He’s also likely to see shadow coverage from Darius Slay, but has been relatively productive in past matchups with him, so it isn’t much of a downgrade. He’s a solid WR2 given the conditions. Thielen would get the better matchup in this case, so if he’s active you need to have him in your lineup. Kyle Rudolph (possible upgrade) has been on fire with Thielen out, so if that’s the case again this weekend, get him fired up as a TE1. His role in a play action oriented offense means he gets a lot of high percentage looks, many of which are in the red zone. If Thielen returns, Rudolph gets a slight downgrade, but has likely been playing too well to bench at this point unless you have a great alternative option.
RB Breakdown
For a moment, it looked like owners of Alexander Mattison might have an RB1 on their hands for the fantasy playoffs. Dalvin Cook (upgrade, auto-start) went down with a shoulder injury last week and didn’t return, but reports have been extremely positive this week. Assuming Cook plays, he’s an easy RB1 unless we hear reports of a limited workload. The matchup with the Lions is as soft as they come, and only CMC has been a more productive back this year. If he’s a surprise inactive, Mattison becomes an RB1, and should be rostered in all leagues regardless (if he isn’t already..). Get Cook in your lineup if he’s active.
Score Prediction: Vikings 31, Lions 20

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (-5.5)

Dolphins ATS: 6-6-0 Jets ATS: 5-7-0
Projected Team Totals: Dolphins 19.25 Jets 24.75

Dolphins

Opp (NYJ) Pass DVOA: #21
Opp (NYJ) Run DVOA: #2
Injuries to Watch DEF (NYJ): CB Maurice Canady (Q) DE Henry Anderson (Q) DB Matthias Farley (Q) SS Jamal Adams (Q) CB Arthur Maulet (Q) LB Paul Worrilow (Q) NT Steve McLendon (Q) CB Brian Poole (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (MIA): C Connor Hilland (Q) WR Rashawn Scott (Q)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): DeVante Parker (24%) Preston Williams (23%) Mike Gesicki (15%) Mark Walton (14%, SUS) Allen Hurns (11%) Albert Wilson (11%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 13: Patrick Laird (60%, 14, 5) Kalen Ballage (15%, 3, 1) Myles Gaskin (22%, 3, 1)
QB/WTE Breakdown
Miami got into the win column again last week, devastating an Eagles squad looking to make the playoffs. On tap is a disappointing NYJ team that is extremely banged up, making for an even better matchup than it already was. Ryan Fitzmagic (upgrade) has been on fire the last several weeks, scoring over 20 fantasy points in three of his last five games. Injuries aside, the Jets secondary is an appealing matchup when healthy, giving up 17.5 FPPG to QBs and 24.8 to WRs. The passing game outlook for MIA is great, but keep a couple things in mind. Miami has been significantly worse on the road in 2019. It shows in the box score, as they have rolled up just 1084-yards passing in road games, versus 1749-yards at home. Plus they’ve only tossed 5 touchdowns on the road, versus 9 at home (pro-football-reference). Additionally, although this team has progressively gotten better over the course of the year, it’s still a 3-9 Miami Dolphins team that has received a beat down on a bi-weekly basis. All of this is to say, I don’t have a problem with streaming Fitzmagic, but just know that it’s extremely high-risk, high-reward. You are just as likely to get 10 fantasy points as you are 20. It’s anyone’s guess if the Fitzpatrick we’ve seen the last couple weeks shows up, or if it’s the one that threw six picks in a game as the Jets QB. Proceed at your own risk. Also, obligatory Fitz revenge game comment here.
I’d like to point out again, that we at DFAroto wrote about a potential DeVante Parker (upgrade) post-hype (or should it be never-again-hype?) breakout in our wide receiver review for the preseason. However, not even the biggest Parker truthers could imagine that he would be receiving WR1/2 treatment by the end of the season. I personally swapped my Parker shares out for Preston Williams (IR) early in the season. I digress, Parker has been an absolute stud the last few weeks, culminating in a magnificent performance against the Eagles. He literally put the team on his back. It was the kind of performance that we all saw Parker having, albeit about 3 years too late. Fire Parker up as an upside WR2, he needs to be in all lineups. Don’t consider Allen Hurns or Albert Wilson, it’s not worth it. The No. 2 passing game option, Mike Gesicki (upgrade) has earned back-end TE1 status with his most recent 5-79-1 performance. It appears that SS Jamal Adams is in real danger of missing Sunday’s contest, if he is unable to go, further upgrade the second-year tight end.
RB Breakdown
Before going down with injury, Kalen Ballage (IR) was historically bad. He averaged 1.82 yards on 74 carries. Since the AFL/NFL merger, no runner with that many carries had averaged below 2.25 yards per carry (Rotoworld). Patrick Laird (stash) was the one to benefit after the Ballage injury, producing five yards and a touchdown on the ground while adding 4-38-0 receiving. Myles Gaskin (stash) is also sure to be involved and will be the second man in the RBBC. Both are risky plays against an imposing front seven, and owners should look to stash, not start. Miami’s run game has been atrocious this season, and going against a good run defense isn’t the spot to expect anything different.

Jets

Opp (MIA) Pass DVOA: #32
Opp (MIA) Run DVOA: #29
Injuries to Watch DEF (MIA): OLB Chase Allen (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (NYJ): RB Le’Veon Bell (Q) T Kelvin Beachum (Q) G Alex Lewis (Q) TE Ryan Griffin (Q) WR Demaryius Thomas (Q) T Chuma Edoga (Q) WR Quinton Patton (Q)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Jamison Crowder (20%) Robby Anderson (15%) Le’Veon Bell (14%) Ryan Griffin (14%) Demaryius Thomas (14%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 13: Le’Veon Bell (85%, 14, 5) Bilal Powell (15%, 6, 2) Ty Montgomery (5%, 2, 1)
QB/WTE Breakdown
It appears that even with a healthy Sam Darnold (upgrade) at the controls, the Jets are still the same inconsistent team that showed up when Darnold was sidelined with Mono. CIN got their first win of the season against them last week, and the game wasn’t even close, as the Bengals held Adam Gase’s offense to just two field goals. On tap is another great matchup, and it’s likely that Darnold bounces back. Consider him a back-end QB1 streamer - MIA is giving up the second highest amount of FPPG to QBs at 22.5, and the 3rd most to wideouts, ceding 27.4 FPPG.
Robby Anderson (upgrade) continued his late season breakout, posting 7-101-0 against CIN. MIA hemorrhages chunk plays through the air, giving up explosive pass plays (20+ yards) on 12% of plays, 3rd highest in the NFL (sharpfootballstats). That sets up the deep play threat for the Jets nicely, and Anderson can be considered an upside WR3. Jamison Crowder (upgrade PPR) busted last week along with most of the offense, but still saw 9 targets. He’s also in a great spot to bounce back, and he deserves a pass for the down week. Get him out there as a WR2. Don’t consider Demaryius Thomas, he’s not worthy. Ryan Griffin has continued to make the most of his limited targets. MIA is a great matchup for all positions including TE, giving up 7.4 FPPG to the position. Continue to get him out there as a low-end TE1.
RB Breakdown
It appears that Le’Veon Bell is in real danger of missing Sunday with an illness, and if he is unable to go, it’ll be a mix of Bilal Powell and Ty Montgomery. Owners have to hope that Bell can gut it out for the first week of fantasy playoffs - MIA has been eviscerated by the run - ceding 22.5 FPPG to RBs. If Bell misses, our preferred play is Powell. However, it’s risky, and due to unknown workload he can’t be recommended as more than a desperation flex option.
Score Prediction: Jets 27, Dolphins 24

Indianapolis Colts at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3)

Colts ATS: 6-5-1 Buccaneers ATS: 4-8-0
Projected Team Totals: Colts 22.25 Buccaneers 25.25

Colts

Opp (TB) Pass DVOA: #19
Opp (TB) Run DVOA: #1
Injuries to Watch DEF (TB): OLB Anthony Nelson (OUT) CB Jamel Dean (Q) CB M.J. Stewart (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (IND): WR T.Y. Hilton (OUT) K Adam Vinatieri (OUT)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): T.Y. Hilton (24%) Eric Ebron (19%, IR) Zach Pascal (17%) Jack Doyle (15%) Nyheim Hines (12%) Parris Campbell (11%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 13: Jonathan Williams (22%, 9, 4) Nyheim Hines (43%, 6, 2) Jordan Wilkins (44%, 13, 3)
QB/WTE Breakdown
Indianapolis’ season sans Andrew Luck has gone from overachieving, to what most expected. Sitting at 6-6 with an O/U of 8 wins for the season, the Colts are exactly where oddsmakers expected them to be with 4 games left. Jacoby Brissett (downgrade) while solid, hasn’t been an amazing fantasy producer. He’s just the QB18 on the season. Even without his best offensive weapon in T.Y Hilton (calf), Brissett does have streaming appeal against Tampa Bay’s leaky secondary. TB gives up 21.8 FPPG to QBs and 31.3 to WRs, league worst. Consider Brissett a low-end QB1, if you have no other option he can be used in a pinch. With Eric Ebron hitting the IR, Jack Doyle (upgrade) showed out with a 6-73-1 receiving line. He was used as the No. 1 passing game option last week with 11 targets, and should continue to see plenty of opportunity. He’s the tight end start of the week - TB gives up 10.1 FPPG to the position, 2nd most.
With Hilton out, Zach Pascal (upgrade) is again relevant. He received the 2nd most targets on the team last week with 10, and converted 7 for 109 scoreless-yards. Against TB is a smash spot, and he should again be heavily targeted, even with rookie Parris Campbell expected to make his return. Get Pascal in lineups as an upside WR3, the matchup couldn’t be better. The other options for the Colts are too risky, leave them on the wire.
RB Breakdown
With Marlon Mack (downgrade) expected to make his return from injury, both Jonathan Williams and Jordan Wilkins are safe to set back on the wire. TB boasts the top Run DVOA, so it’s not a good matchup for Mack to return to. Regardless, you aren’t sitting the stud RB, just temper expectations - TB gives up just 11.4 FPPG, 2nd best in the league.

Buccaneers

Opp (IND) Pass DVOA: #10
Opp (IND) Run DVOA: #21
Injuries to Watch DEF (IND): CB Kenny Moore (OUT) S Malik Hooker (Q) Rock Ya-Sin (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (TB): RB T.J. Logan (OUT) G Alex Cappa (OUT) WR Scotty Miller (OUT)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Mike Evans (25%) Chris Godwin (20%) Cameron Brate (14%) Breshad Perriman (11%) O.J. Howard (10%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 13: Peyton Barber (39%, 17, 0) Ronald Jones (28%, 6, 0) Dare Ogunbowale (30%, 3, 2)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The dichotomy of Jameis Winston is fascinating to watch, and unfortunately, this may be the last year we get to witness the catastrophe in action. Bruce Arians was noncommittal in a recent interview about the 25-year old signal caller’s future in The Big Guava. The matchup on deck isn’t an enticing one, but it’s not an imposing one either. IND cedes big plays through the air of 20+ yards on just 8% of plays, good for 15th in the league - While TB creates plays of 20+ yards through the air on 10% of plays, good for 11th in the league (sharpfootballstats). Something has to give, and it seems a good bet that the smaller Colts CB’s (Rotoworld) can’t handle the bigger TB wideouts. Winston is a mid-range QB1 in a decent matchup - IND gives up 16.4 FPPG to QBs and 23.2 to WRs.
Mike Evans and Chris Godwin had been alternating big weeks until last week; a blowout win in which both wideouts put up almost nearly identical lines of 4-53-0, and 4-50-0 respectively. Somehow, Winston didn’t toss a touchdown or an interception in a game TB won 28-11. Both wideouts are WR1’s, and both belong locked in lineups regardless of matchup. The other options in this offense are much dicer propositions. Breshad Perriman had his best performance of the season last week, but hasn’t done enough to warrant consideration. It was O.J. Howard with the playable fantasy day in Week 13, but both he and fellow tight end Cameron Brate have been much too inconsistent to play. Leave them on the wire.
RB Breakdown
It appears that ‘starting’ running back for TB is a promotion in name only. Despite Bruce Arians insistence that Ronald Jones is that, the workload doesn’t match the title. Jones was out-touched by Peyton Barber 17-6, and was vultured at the goal line twice. This backfield simply cannot be trusted for playoffs, even with the good matchup. Owners cannot predict where the volume is going on a weekly basis, and due to that, the backfield is a recommended fade.
Score Prediction: Buccaneers 24, Colts 20
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Wrestling Observer Rewind ★ May 7, 2001

Going through old issues of the Wrestling Observer Newsletter and posting highlights in my own words. For anyone interested, I highly recommend signing up for the actual site at f4wonline and checking out the full archives.
PREVIOUS YEARS ARCHIVE:
1991199219931994199519961997199819992000
1-1-2001 1-8-2001 1-15-2001 1-22-2001
1-29-2001 2-5-2001 2-12-2001 2-19-2001
2-26-2001 3-5-2001 3-12-2001 3-19-2001
3-26-2001 4-2-2001 4-9-2001 4-16-2001
4-23-2001 4-30-2001
  • Remember Johnny Valentine died in the last issue but Dave didn't have time to write up a proper obituary? Good lord, does he correct that this week. This sucker is LONG. Valentine died nearly broke and Dave rants about how the wrestling industry doesn't take care of its own after they're done giving their bodies to it. Valentine's long-time rival Wahoo McDaniel is in poor health but he's been fortunate to collect a pension from his years playing football for the AFL which was later absorbed into the NFL. Other wrestlers are part of the Screen Actor's Guild due to having small movie roles, which provides them insurance and things like that. Valentine was paralyzed from the waist down in the plane crash back in the 70s (Dave says these days, if that happened, he likely would have collected some big legal settlement but that didn't happen back then) and the medical bills piled up and left him broke. Dave includes a quote from Ric Flair here, talking about how messed up it is that the business doesn't have a union or health insurance or something to prevent this from happening to past stars. Dave talks about all the heartbreaking stories we never hear about from these older wrestlers who fade into obscurity after retirement and end up destitute because there's no pension, no 401K, so on and so forth and the savings they build up during their career goes away pretty quick when it's time for these old guys to get those knee replacements and neck surgeries and whatnot with no insurance. There's a lot of quotes in here from other wrestlers here talking saying that the business abandoned Valentine, who was one of the top stars of his era and it's pretty sad. And unfortunately, little has changed in the 20 years since.
  • Anyway, other obituary stuff. Dave recaps a story from Lou Thesz's book about Valentine who once went to a bull-riding show and decided to try it but got thrown off. According to Thesz, the bull then charged Valentine and Thesz thought he was for sure a dead man. But Valentine stood his ground and punched the bull right in the face as hard as he could, stunning the bull long enough to make it turn away for a minute so he could escape. Valentine was notorious for being an incredibly hard hitter, legendary feuds with McDaniel, and on and on. Man....this is a REALLY long and good obituary and absolutely worth reading but I can't recap all this haha. Dave goes into detail on pretty much every major angle or moment of Valentine's career and it's incredible but it's not news and this issue is long enough already.
  • WWF's Backlash PPV is in the books and it was...fine. Dave almost feels like it's unfair to compare it to recent PPVs because the last few WWF PPVs have been off-the-charts awesome. This one was still good but it felt like a let-down in comparison to the last few months. Dave thinks the Benoit/Angle 30-minute submission match was good but not as great as expected and without near falls, it dragged too long. Same with the main event, good but too long. They announced it as the 18th consecutive sellout in a row in Chicago, which isn't exactly true. 17 of the last 18 Chicago shows were indeed legit sellouts, but one of those shows didn't, so it's not 18 in a row. But hey, still impressive! And at least it wasn't like the XFL, where they repeatedly announced sellouts despite most of the stadiums being 3/4 empty for every game.
  • Other notes from the PPV: Jerry Lynn made his TV debut on the Heat pre-show, winning the light heavyweight title from Crash Holly. Lita also worked the pre-show and Dave says it's clear they're preparing to do a Lita vs. Chyna angle for the women's title (yup, but they only had 1 match before Chyna leaves the company). Raven vs. Rhino was the sleeper match of the night, way exceeding expectations. Shane McMahon took another crazy bump from the top of the TitanTron, as he tends to do. Triple H became the 2nd grand slam champion ever (behind Shawn Michaels) having now held the World, IC, European, and now tag team titles. And the cameras missed part of the finishing sequence of the main event, leading Dave to ask, "how in the WCW does this happen?"
WATCH: Shane McMahon leaps from the top of the TitanTron
  • Jim Ross spent the past 2 weeks in meetings with WCW talent to put together the roster for the new WCW that's now expected to launch next month. As of press time, the plan is for the first episode to air on June 16th, and TNN will be bumping their "Grand Ole Opry" show to make room. Ross met with Rob Van Dam and his agent for the first time and described the meeting as very positive. Several years ago, RVD rubbed many in WWF the wrong way when he and Sabu refused to do a job on TV during the ECW invasion angle. No word on a deal being made yet, but it's looking more likely now than it did before. Ross also met with an agent who represents several former WCW guys like Booker T, DDP, Billy Kidman, Kanyon, and others. Ross made it clear that if any of these guys want to come in, they will not be offered anywhere near what WCW was paying them as far as guarantees go, but if they're successful, they will still make really make good money based on incentives and whatnot. Most of the people who have met with Ross praised him and said he's been very honest and forthcoming in the negotiations and isn't trying to fill their heads with lies about how much money they'll make and stuff like that. Plus WWF wrestlers earn a portion of gate money and WWF runs a lot of successful live shows, although the relaunched WCW brand won't be running house shows, at least not at first, so that's obviously something they have to take into consideration.
  • Booker T has close to 2 years left on his WCW deal, at $750,000 per year and would be giving up a lot of money if he accepts a buy out to sign with WWF, but he's made it clear to people around him that he still wants to go. WWF has pretty much given up on pursuing Goldberg because he's got nearly 3 years left on his WCW deal and will make more than $6 million by simply sitting at home, and WWF has no intention of offering anywhere near the same amount. DDP has about 9 months left on his WCW deal which will net him more than $1 million but like Booker T, he's also made it clear that he wants to work for WWF even if it means losing out on some of that money in the short-term. Kidman has more than a year left on a $300,000-per-year deal so he's probably going to sit it out also. Same with Ric Flair, 2 years left on his big money deal and doesn't seem anxious to give it up. Several other wrestlers who were on 90-day contract cycles will officially become free agents in July and the biggest name among them is Rey Mysterio, who WWF allegedly has interest in but haven't spoken with him yet. All the rest will likely start working indies or in foreign promotions in Japan, Mexico, or Europe. We're beginning to see how the deaths of WCW and ECW left so many people scrambling to figure out how to put food on the table and pay their mortgages.
  • Ross also had meetings with Reno, Chavo Guerrero, Chuck Palumbo, and Sean O'Haire. Then he went to the UPW show that night in California and met with Nathan Jones, John Heidenreich, and former XFL player Josh Wilcox. Ross was high on Wilcox and there was talk of using him to cross-promote the XFL if they end up having a 2nd season (lol). Speaking of, around half of the XFL players have requested contract releases so they can negotiate with the NFL and several have already signed NFL deals. Wilcox is said to be pretty good in UPW, especially with his mic work. Anyway, the plan is to finalize a WCW roster in the next 2 weeks and then put together the non-wrestling crew (agents, referees, announcers, etc.) a few weeks later before the re-launch. The main names being considered for announcers are Scott Hudson, Mike Tenay, Joey Styles, Mark Madden and, believe it or not, Jerry Lawler, though he's a long-shot. Lawler reportedly still won't come back without his wife and Vince McMahon is pissed at him for the things Lawler has said and done since walking out, so there's some fences that need to be mended there. Vince is reportedly not willing to budge on bringing Lawler's wife back. The idea is to tape on Wednesdays, near whatever city Smackdown is taping in on Tuesdays, since they will use the same production crew and production trucks. The WCW group will have its own writing team, but they will work with the WWF writers to make sure they don't conflict with each other's angles (for instance, both shows promoting a major cage match during the same week or things like that).
  • Dave has examined the ECW chapter 11 bankruptcy filing in detail and it shows a realistic picture of what kind of shape ECW has been in during the last two years. In 1999, ECW grossed $5.8 million in income (WWF grossed $259 million while WCW grossed more than $160 million during the same year). In 2000, same kind of situation. Long story short, while many people considered ECW a strong candidate for the #2 promotion in the U.S., the reality is that the wrestling industry was pulling in roughly half a billion dollars during those years and ECW amounted to less than 1% of that market share. WWF, NJPW, WCW, and even PRIDE ran numerous single shows that grossed more than ECW did in those entire years. ECW's income drastically declined in 2000 (though not as bad as WCW's) which is interesting because that's the first year they ever had a national TV deal. The problem is, that TV deal came with enormous costs that TNN wouldn't cover and ECW essentially went broke trying to fund it themselves. ECW was owned 85% by Paul Heyman, with the Acclaim video game company owning the other 15%. At the time they folded, ECW was facing numerous lawsuits from around the country for nonpayment of bills and left tons of other unpaid bills in its wake that they weren't yet sued over. The bankruptcy filing included a list of all the people or companies ECW owed money to. Wrestlers, Heyman's family, radio stations, business partners, lawyers, travel agencies, credit card companies, loan companies, even the company that makes wrestling title belts. There was also a clear lack of comprehensive bookkeeping. On the recent Observer radio show, Tommy Dreamer talked about how some last ditch efforts to raise money for ECW failed because ECW couldn't provide any verifiable financial records. Many of the debtors listed in the bankruptcy are rounded off estimates rather than exact figures. Many wrestlers were listed as being owed money, but the amount was listed as "unknown."
  • Among the people/companies owed money: Acclaim is owed $1 million. Heyman himself was owed $128,000 in back-pay from money he spent out of his own pocket to keep things afloat. Heyman's father, who funded the company for many years, is owed $3.5 million while his mother is owed $226,500. MSG Cable is owed $244,000. InDemand is owed $150,000. And WWF is owed $587,500. And that's just a few of the companies. As for the performers:
William Alfonso (Fonzie) - $5,000
Scott Antol (Scotty Anton) - unknown
Joseph Bonsignore (Joey Styles) - $50,480
Mike Bucci (Nova) - $4,000
Don Callis - $12,000
Lou D'Angeli (Lou E. Dangerously) - $7,000
Michael DiPaolo (Roadkill) - $21,250
Joseph Dorgan (Swinger) - unknown
John Finnegan - unknown
Francine Fournier - $47,275
James Fullington (Sandman) - unknown
Terry Gerin (Rhino) - $50,000
Matt Hyson (Spike Dudley) - unknown
Francisco Islas (Super Crazy) - $5,000
Mike Kehner - unknown
Patrick Kenney (Simon Diamond) - $9,000
Tom Laughlin (Tommy Dreamer) - $100,000
Jerry Lynn - unknown
James Maritato (Little Guido) - $25,000
Troy Martin (Shane Douglas) - $48,000
Jim Mitchell (Sinister Minister) - unknown
James Molineaux - unknown
Dan Morrison (Danny Doring) - $2,100
Peter Polaco (Justin Credible) - $7,990
Dawn Psalpis (Dawn Marie) - $9,000
Jon Rechner (Balls Mahoney) - $4,000
Ken Reininhaus (Jack Victory) - $3,000
Robert Szatkowski (Rob Van Dam) - $150,000
Yoshihiro Tajiri - $5,000
John Watson (Mikey Whipwreck) - $12,000
  • More bad news on the "professional wrestling is bad for kids" front, as a new study from Wake Forest found that teenagers who are wrestling fans are more likely than their peers to have violent romantic relationships. The story was picked up and carried in newspapers nationwide and basically found that a higher percentage of teens on dates are more likely to get into physical altercations on dates and be abusive in their relationships. A WWF spokesman responded saying WWF is not a children's show and that the parents should determine what's appropriate and yada yada. The usual response. Long story short, teens (particularly boys) who watch wrestling tend to be meaner and more physically abusive to girls, and it blames the way women are portrayed and demeaned every week in wrestling on TV. Interestingly enough, girls were also found more likely than boys to be violent and do drugs if they were wrestling fans. Dave breaks down all the numbers on this and discusses what it means, the flaws and cavets involved in a study like this, etc. but regardless, it's pretty clear that wrestling (and WWF in particular) seems to be having somewhat of a negative influence on teens and this isn't the first study to say so.
READ: Watching Wrestling Positively Associated With Date Fighting, Say Researchers
  • Throughout his tenure in WCW, Rey Mysterio occasionally headed down to Tijuana to work indie shows with other big name Mexican stars, but as of this week, Time Warner informed Mysterio he can no longer do that or he'll be in breach of his contract. And like everybody else who is still collecting big money WCW deals, he doesn't want to lose that so no more Mysterio in Tijuana for now. Dave talks about how Tijuana is a pretty hot city for wrestling right now, with several companies all running weekly shows there and drawing big crowds.
  • Hey there. Guess what? I have the flu! Yup, as I write this, it's Dec. 6, 2018 and I'm siiiiiiick as shit. I've been cooped up in my house, sweating through the mattress for four days now, shivering like a newborn baby lamb. But my entire body aches from laying around for 90-something hours and I just can NOT lay around and sleep anymore. Also, did I mention my wife is also sick? She caught it from me the next day so we've both been lumbering around the house like feverish zombies. And oh man, I just can't begin to tell you how delightful she is to be around right now. A sheer joy, I must say. So much so that I decided I needed a break from it, lest I be overwhelmed with gratitude. So I have come upstairs to my quiet office to reflect on how lucky I am. I'm so lucky. Right? RIGHT?!
  • 5/29/19 Update: I'm okay now.
  • The AJPW vs. NOAH war has reached a new level of petty. Last week, NOAH announced that they would be holding a Jumbo Tsuruta tribute show in his hometown in June. Not to be outdone, a few days later, AJPW announced they were going to do their own Tsuruta tribute show, and they're doing it in May so they can beat NOAH to the punch. Jumbo Tsuruta was one of the biggest stars in AJPW history but he retired and left the company almost immediately after Giant Baba passed away in 1999. Tsuruta died last year right around the time AJPW was splitting up and had made it clear to everyone that he was on Misawa's side (I think it's come out in the years since that Motoko Baba pretty much fired Tsuruta right after Giant Baba died. Seems like the 2 didn't exactly get along).
  • When Vampiro's WCW contract expires in a few months, he's expected to start working in AJPW (yeah, he's worked a few tours there off and on over the years).
  • Antonio Inoki was in the U.S. a couple of weeks ago and when he came back to Japan, he showed the media 2 photos of himself with Mike Tyson, in order to "prove" that his negotiations with Tyson for a match against Naoya Ogawa weren't just a bullshit claim. Apparently Tyson and Inoki met in Las Vegas at the end of April, but Dave doesn't say if there's anything to the negotiations. One of the photos was of them shaking hands and the other was of Inoki pretending to choke Tyson (I can't find either of these pics anywhere and googling "mike tyson antonio inoki" just pulls up a billion pictures of the Muhammad Ali vs. Inoki match).
  • Dave talks about 21-year-old Japanese female wrestler Meiko Satomura and says she's the most promising young female wrestler in Japan right now. In case you're wondering, she's 39 now and she absolutely stole the show in this year's Mae Young Classic. So yeah, she's dope.
  • Stu Hart is going to have surgery to have a pacemaker put in due to his recent health issues. Former manager Sir Oliver Humperdink also had a heart bypass surgery recently.
  • Don Callis was on the Observer Live show and said he's going back to school to get his MBA. He said he never wants to end up in the same position he's in now, where circumstances beyond his control left him with no job. Soon after ECW folded, he was supposed to go to the Eric Bischoff-owned WCW, but then that fell through too and suddenly he had no other wrestling options (yup, he got his MBA in 2003 and now he runs Impact Wrestling).
  • UPW wrestlers Prototype vs. Frankie Kazarian headlined a recent indie show in Massachusetts (I'm only mentioning it because I found the match. Spoiler: LOLPROTOTYPEWINS).
WATCH: Prototype vs. Franke Kazarian
  • Former ECW valet Elektra recently did a photo shoot for an upcoming issue of Playboy (it was actually part of a larger thing. Throughout her time in ECW, she also appeared as an extra on Sopranos in several episodes, as a stripper at the Bada Bing strip club on the show. The Playboy shoot was a "Girls of the Bada Bing" type thing, with her and a bunch of the other strippers from the show).
  • The lines between MMA and wrestling are even blurrier than normal in PRIDE, because this week they announced the upcoming PRIDE event later this month will feature NJPW wrestler and current IWGP champion Kazuyuki Fujita vs. NOAH wrestler Yoshihiro Takayama. To make it even more interesting, Takayama challenged Fujita to put the IWGP title on the line in the fight, but NJPW has made it clear that ain't happening on a PRIDE show in a shoot match.
  • UPN is reportedly looking to follow NBC's lead and no longer air XFL games, which puts the chances of a 2nd season into even further doubt. UPN only had a 1-year deal to carry XFL and it was by far the network's lowest rated show. That would leave TNN as the only network still on-board to carry XFL games and XFL president Basil DeVito has already said that the league wouldn't be able to continue if TNN is their only TV deal. Long story short: XFL is almost certainly dead.
  • OVW wrestler Randy Orton worked a dark match against Billy Gunn, and cut a promo before the match (here's video, but the audio is super low for some reason).
WATCH: Randy Orton vs. Billy Gunn (2001 dark match)
  • When reviewing Smackdown, Dave gets a pretty good dig in at Russo. There was a segment during the show where Grandmaster Sexay was talking about fat women. Dave jokes, "See, this proves Russo's point. WWF was allowed to call women fat and that's why they still draw sellout houses." If you recall, last year in WCW, the standards and practices people nixed a segment where Russo wanted to have Roddy Piper call a woman fat and Russo threw a fit about how the Turner S&P people were the reason why he wasn't able to turn WCW around. It's obviously a ridiculous argument because it's not like calling a woman fat was going to boost Nitro's ratings an extra 3 points or anything, but that didn't stop Russo from throwing a temper tantrum about it every time and using it as an excuse for why he totally could have saved WCW if only his oh-so-brilliant and creative mind hadn't been handcuffed by the censors.
  • Talent agent Barry Bloom's agency has filed a lawsuit against Chyna for failing to pay commissions they say she owes them. Bloom's agency represented Chyna for most of the last 3 years and negotiated her WWF contract as well as consulted and advised her on many outside business dealings including her autobiography, her Playboy shoot, acting gigs, etc. Chyna apparently owes them somewhere between $150,000 and $250,000. The lawsuit says she hasn't responded to numerous attempts they've made to contact her and she has refused to pay.
  • Jerry Lawler was recently on Mancow's radio show and made some waves by implying that Bruce Prichard and Stephanie McMahon were sleeping together and that he wouldn't care if Vince McMahon died in a car wreck. Lawler later went on his website and tried to clarify that he was just joking, but the internet picked it up as serious news and it spread like wildfire. In the website post, Lawler said everything on the Mancow interview was said in jest and that he doesn't hate Vince McMahon and was sorry if anyone took his comments about Stephanie and Prichard seriously (On his podcast, Prichard has talked about this and said it actually caused some problems at home with him and his wife because I guess he had been unfaithful in the past and his wife already didn't fully trust him. So Lawler saying this really ruffled some feathers for Prichard's home life). Lawler also said he has over a million dollars in cash and has no interest in begging for his WWF job back and said he doesn't even know if he'd go back even if Vince begged him to now. He said WWF's lawyers had told him that he's burning his bridges by talking about this so much in the media but Lawler said he's not saying anything that isn't the truth and if the truth hurts, it's their problem not his. He also said WWF wrestlers and developmental guys have been told they'll be fired if they talk to Lawler and and that some indie wrestlers had been told they'll never have a chance to work in WWF if they work any shows Lawler is booking. Lawler also thought it was bullshit that WWF pulled their developmental deal away from Power Pro Wrestling just because Lawler was part of that show, saying it was unfair to PPW and the other wrestlers there. Lawler also claimed that when he was still with WWF, he had talked to Hugh Hefner about his wife Stacy posing in Playboy, but WWF threw a fit because they felt it was their decision to decide which of their women should be in Playboy and that Lawler shouldn't be trying to pursue those kinds of deals for his wife on his own. Stacy has since tried to get a Playboy photoshoot but was rejected by the magazine. However, Playboy did send a letter basically saying that they would reconsider if their relationship with WWF were to ever come to an end, so basically, she's even blacklisted from Playboy because of WWF. He also claimed that he hasn't gotten paid for the artwork he did on Mick Foley's Christmas Chaos children's book (published by WWF) and that he's planning to write an autobiography. And finally, Lawler said he's had talks with Hulk Hogan about coming in to Memphis and working some matches together, which would likely do pretty big business.
LISTEN: Bruce Prichard and Conrad Thompson discuss this briefly on the Something To Wrestle podcast
  • UPW had a big show last week and Dave was there. In fact, they hosted the Observer Live show from right there in the building before the wrestling show began. Edge & Christian worked the main event, beating Frankie Kazarian and Nova. Molly Holly also came in and put over WWF developmental wrestler Victoria. The match was bad but Dave thinks Victoria has some real star potential. UPW champion Samoa Joe beat Tommy Dreamer. Later, in the big angle of the show, they had a thing where Samoa Joe and a bunch of other heels attacked Prototype and broke his arm with a chair to write him out of the promotion because he's leaving for OVW in a couple of weeks. Eventually Tommy Dreamer ran in and saved him. Fun fact: the Rock was supposed to show up as a surprise to save Prototype from the beat down because he's currently staying in Los Angeles right now taking acting classes. But some scheduling issues at the last minute kept it from happening. Another match featured the tag team of Nathan Jones and John Heidenreich. Dave thinks Nathan Jones is almost a sure thing to become a big star unless injury or his age gets in the way (he's starting pretty late, at age 30). Ring wise, he's obviously still green, but he's got the look, charisma, and all the athletic credentials and WWF had signed him to a developmental deal before he even wrestled his first match (turns out he could never quite get the whole in-ring part down and he ended up quitting WWF because he didn't like the travel). As for Heidenreich, he's got the look but not as much charisma. Other notable names on the show: Luther Reigns, Rocky Romero, and Mike Knox. Interestingly enough, Christopher Daniels was the one running the show backstage. Jim Ross and Paul Bearer were also there, scouting talents. (This paragraph has just about the most eclectic list of names ever, from all different eras and promotions that would eventually go in all sorts of weird directions, all under the same roof for one show. 2001 was wild y'all).
WATCH: Samoa Joe vs. Tommy Dreamer - UPW 2001
  • Big Show did an interview recently talking about a few things. Regarding his recent stint in OVW, he said Jim Cornette would fine guys if faces and heels were having dinner together and would blow a gasket if they were even in the same place, like a bar or night club, even if they weren't socializing together. After the big Louisville Gardens 30th anniversary show awhile back, there was a big party in a private room at a night club that was closed off to the public and for that one night, Cornette reluctantly allowed the wrestlers to socialize and party together but he was still pissy about it because there was a door to the room where people in the public part of the club were hanging out and for those brief few seconds every now and then when the door was open, people outside could see inside and that drove Cornette bonkers. Classic. Also, in regards to the segment that was bleeped on TV a few weeks ago, Big Show said he called Kaientai a couple of "goofs" but the people in the truck misheard it and freaked out and bleeped it, which made everyone think he had used the other racial slur, but he swears he didn't.
  • Boxer Butterbean did an interview talking about his WM14 match with Bart Gunn. Butterbean said that Rock and Austin had a backstage bet on who was going to win. Austin was apparently foolish enough to pick Bart and needless to say, Rock won that bet. He also said back in 1998 that Vince McMahon had made him a huge offer (near 7 figures, although Dave says he finds that hard to believe, but then again, Butterbean was a huge cult star at the time) to come in as a full-time WWF wrestler. But Butterbean turned it down because he wanted to continue boxing (since he was already making big money doing that) and Vince's offer wouldn't allow that.
FRIDAY: NJPW holds a disastrous Fukuoka Dome show, WWF Insurrextion PPV fallout, WWF ratings in major decline, and more...
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Player Prop Sports Betting Strategy + Tool How I got banned from sports betting... - Arbitrage Betting Explained How betting squares on the Superbowl works! The 3x3 Football Betting System !!! 1 of 6 right = MONEY BACK !!! AFL Round 2 Betting Review! OH NO

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Player Prop Sports Betting Strategy + Tool

How does spread betting work? - MoneyWeek Investment Tutorials - Duration: 11:52. moneycontent Recommended for you. 11:52. Bookies bank on sports fans who bet with their hearts - Duration: 9:03. How to Make Money Betting Sports - Basic Sports Betting Strategy - Duration: 18:04. ... How Does a Super Bowl Pool Work? w/ squares - Duration: 4:59. Colleenie Carpenter 65,056 views. Sports Betting Strategies That Work - Data-Driven Theories - Duration: 9:32. Ghost Betting Tips 24,734 views. 9:32. How To Bet On Football: A Beginners Guide To Sports Gambling - Duration: 7:00. Like the Martingale betting system, the D’Alembert betting system happens to be also a negative progressive betting system. Rule 1/ Set your Base Stake To use the D’Alembert system you first ... You take 2 games and if you only get 1 right, you win your money back ! If you would like to get some more inspiration for your sports bets, please check out my channel and the rest of my video's ...