What Is A Moneyline Bet? | How To Bet The Moneyline

PSA for degens in honor of the glorious return of sports: MLB RUNLINE VALUE

Can’t wait for sports[betting] to return!
Large caveat that this season is NOT going to operate like normal seasons, but I still present my humble, food for thought PSA:
If you like a favorite, always consider the runline. After all, the best team in baseball wins 3 of every 5 games, the worst team wins 2 of every 5 games. Even if you’re dangerously in love with the chalk, you aren’t betting the Pats over the Browns.
Over the last decade, only 28% of MLB games ended decided by one run. Last season, 56% of one run games were won by the closing line favorites. Ergo, only 15.68% of the 2019 slate ended in the chalk winning by a single run.
If you won 100 games putting $100 on a -120 line, you’d profit $8,333.
If you won only 84 of those games putting $100 on the RL at +150, you’d profit $11,200 even after the $1600 in losses.
Betting the favorite and losing is the same detriment regardless of su/spread bet.
Personally, albeit in a very small sample, I began testing this last year from August 1 on, ended with a 34-26 (56.7%) record and 41% ROI. Further, focus on away runlines. i went 19-18 with 31% ROI on the home team and 15-8 with a whopping 57.6% ROI on away teams. This has inspired me to keep the system into this year.
Again, all is going to be different this specific season. Note that divisional games are statistically more likely to be 1-run, and each team plays 67% of schedule against the division. The nature of each game being worth almost a full series sweep will certainly bring scores closer, and the pressure of a 60 game sprint will create more competitive environments across the board.
However, the 3-batter minimum and universal DH are both factors that reduce close game potential in my opinion.
Bet smart, but don’t be a square. The runline is not a sucker bet. Happy wagering, friends.
EDIT: sweet controversy! I love the swinging opinions, especially in sports betting.
A) Do NOT bet this in the case of poor odds. I’m talking specifically about when the moneyline is in the -110 to -150 range and therefore the runline would be +120 or better. DO NOT BET A RL AT -140. Honestly, any baseball game at -140 is questionable at best
B) THIS IS NOT A MODEL. As I bolded earlier, my message is to consider the runline. I’m just unearthing some stats for people to do what they wish with it. Threw this out here to get a feel on how people perceive the idea, not as an Oracle revealing secret knowledge
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Have you just been really unlucky, or does your betting strategy need some work? Methods to Estimate Prediction Error

Everyone has gotten unlucky on a seemingly sure bet that backfired. We hate losing that nail biter. It hurts a lot more than that blowout loss where you weren’t even close. The question is: should each loss (and alternatively each win) be treated equally?
Margin of Victory
If most of your wins are by a single point and you’re getting blown out in your losses, it might be a sign that your Win/Loss performance is due for a regression. Alternatively, if your only losses are of the nail biter variety, you might just be on the wrong side of variance. As an assessment, it might be helpful to measure your margin of victory on your wagers.
The margin of victory (“MOV”) measurement is a simple but useful measurement of how well your bets are performing. Since bets are generally binary outcomes (win or loss) there is a quite a bit of variance when it comes to measurement by simply wins and losses. Using the MOV measurement can give you a more precise measurement that isn’t as influenced by the binary nature of wager outcomes. This is identical to evaluating team performance using net differential as opposed to W-L.
MOV Example:
Say you placed the 15 NBA ATS bets below, winning 7 and losing 8 during the first week of March:


Date Wager Odds Win/Loss
3/1/2020 Kings -7.5 -110 L
3/1/2020 Nuggets -2.5 -110 W
3/2/2020 Cavaliers +10 -110 L
3/3/2020 76ers +12.5 -110 L
3/3/2020 Warriors +15 -110 W
3/4/2020 Pacers +11.5 -110 L
3/4/2020 Thunder -8 -110 L
3/4/2020 Blazers -7.5 -110 W
3/5/2020 Raptors -9 -110 L
3/6/2020 Bulls +2 -110 L
3/6/2020 Celtics -1.5 -110 L
3/6/2020 Mavericks -7.5 -110 W
3/7/2020 Grizzlies -6.5 -110 W
3/8/2020 Pacers +6.5 -110 W
3/8/2020 Magic +8 -110 W
Wins 7
Losses 8
Win % 46.7%
A 46.7% winning percentage at -110 is certainly not a profitable record when betting the same amount every time. We could just assume that these weren’t very good bets. What we’d rather do, however, is examine our margin of victory for these games. The first wager of Kings -7.5, for example, was a game that the favorite failed to cover by 1.5 points, winning the game by 6 points when favorite bettors had to lay 7.5. Your wager (Kings -7.5) would have a MOV of -1.5 since your bet lost by 1.5 points.

Date Wager Pts Opp Pts Result Line W/L MOV
3/1/2020 Kings -7.5 106 100 -6 -7.5 L -1.5
We can do this same analysis for each wager and find that your MOV averaged 17.5 points in your wins and -3.1 in your losing wagers. Thus despite a losing record, your wagers had a total MOV of 6.5 points.

Date Wager Odds Win/Loss MOV
3/1/2020 Kings -7.5 -110 L -1.5
3/1/2020 Nuggets -2.5 -110 W 12.5
3/2/2020 Cavaliers +10 -110 L -3
3/3/2020 76ers +12.5 -110 L -0.5
3/3/2020 Warriors +15 -110 W 31
3/4/2020 Pacers +11.5 -110 L -7.5
3/4/2020 Thunder -8 -110 L -1
3/4/2020 Blazers -7.5 -110 W 13.5
3/5/2020 Raptors -9 -110 L -1
3/6/2020 Bulls +2 -110 L -4
3/6/2020 Celtics -1.5 -110 L -6.5
3/6/2020 Mavericks -7.5 -110 W 17.5
3/7/2020 Grizzlies -6.5 -110 W 10.5
3/8/2020 Pacers +6.5 -110 W 9.5
3/8/2020 Magic +8 -110 W 28
Wins 7 17.5
Losses 8 -3.1
Average MOV 6.5
This certainly indicates that variance was not on your side as you were on the losing side of several one-possession games and most of your wins occurred at pretty comfortable MOVs.
Now certainly there are limitations to an MOV analysis. First, since it is an “average” measurement, it can be influenced by outliers. You might consider capping the MOV (say a 10 or 15-point maximum MOV) to reduce the impact of outliers.
Second, different sports have different key numbers and a simple MOV analysis does not account for key numbers or non-normal distributions.
Lastly, this type of analysis doesn’t translate as easily for moneyline wagers. To make an apples to apples comparison, you would need to assess the average score differential at various moneylines. We computed the average run differential of away teams in the MLB based on the breakeven win probability of their moneyline odds in the graph linked below.
Normalizing Run Differentials Based on Implied Win Probability
More Granular Measurements
For sports that have lumpy scoring (NFL, NHL, MLB) you might perform a similar analysis using even more granular data than scoring. For example, to remove cluster luck from baseball scoring, you might do an analysis of net base production or in football you might analyze yards per play or play success rates.
Grading Your Own Predictions
Now let’s say you’ve made a model to come up with your own predictions for games (we’ll cover several ways to do this in our model building section) and you want to assess your predictions vs the market (or someone else). In statistics and machine learning, two common ways of assessing performance are by the mean absolute error (“MAE”) and the root mean squared error (“RMSE”) of various models.
Mean Absolute Error
The great thing about these terms is that their names so accurately describe their calculations. The mean absolute error is the average (mean) of the absolute value of your model’s prediction error. So if you forecasted a game to be -5 and the game ended in -3 the absolute value of the error of your model was 2 points. Do that for every prediction and take the average. Simple enough.
Root Mean Squared Error
The root mean squared error is conceptually very similar to MAE except that you first 1) square your error term, then 2) take the average (mean) of the squared error terms and finally 3) take the squared root of those squared errors.
We’ve calculated the MAE and RMSE for the NBA ATS wagers that you made linked below. Naturally, since those wagers had a positive average MOV, we’re not surprised that the prediction error was less than the market.
MAE and RMSE
The difference between MAE and RMSE is that by squaring the error values, you are more heavily penalizing predictions with large errors. If large errors are significantly worse than smaller errors, then RMSE might be a better calculation for you to use. Otherwise MAE will work just fine.
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How to Bet on Sports for Beginners

1. Favorites vs. Underdogs

When the oddsmakers release a betting line on a game, the first thing they do is decide which team should be the favorite and which should be the underdog.
The favorite is the team that is expected to win the game and will get a minus sign next to its odds, while the underdog is expected to lose and gets a plus sign. If the game is a toss-up, books will open it as a “pick” or “pick’em.”

2. Spreads

There are two different ways to bet on a favorite or an underdog. The first is the point spread, which is a bet on the margin of victory. A favorite “gives” points, while an underdog “gets” points.
For example, say the Patriots are 7-point favorites (-7) against the Jets.
If you bet on the Patriots, they need to win the game by 8 points or more for you to win your bet. If the Patriots win by 8 points or more, you “cover.” If the Patriots win by exactly 7 points, that is called a “push,” which means you get back the money you originally bet.
If the Patriots win by 6 points or fewer (or lose the game straight-up), you lose your bet.
On the flip side, if you bet on the Jets “plus the points” (+7), you need the Jets to either win the game lose by six points or fewer for you to win (or cover) your bet.
Spreads are available for all sports, but they are predominantly used when betting on football and basketball.

3. Moneylines

The second way to bet on a favorite or an underdog is on the moneyline. This is based solely on which team will win the game. Favorites are given a “minus” designation, such as -150, -200 or -500. If a favorite is -200, that means you have to risk $200 to win $100. If the favorite wins, you get $100, but if the favorite loses, you’re out $200. Because favorites are expected to win, you assume more risk when betting on them.
Underdogs are given a “plus” designation, such as +150, +200 or +500. If an underdog is +200, that means if you bet $100 on them and they win the game, you get $200. If they lose the game, you lose only the $100 that you risked. Because underdogs are expected to lose, there is more of a reward when betting on them.
Moneylines are available for all sports, but they are predominantly used when betting on baseball, hockey and soccer.

4. OveUnders (Totals)

In addition to setting a line for the favorite and the underdog, oddsmakers will also set a total number of points scored in a game by both teams combined. This is called the “total” or the “oveunder.”
Bettors can then wager on whether or not the game will go Over or Under the total.
For example, an NBA game between the Celtics and Bulls might have a total of 215. You could either bet the Over 215 or the Under 215. If you bet the Over 215 and the total points scored end up being 216 or higher, you win your bet. If the total points scored are 214 or fewer, you lose.

5. What is the -110 number listed next to my bet?

The oddsmakers put a “tax” on every bet, which is typically called the “juice,” “takeout” or “vig” (short for “vigorish”). The juice is the commission you have to pay to the sportsbook for them to accept your wager.
Say the Duke Blue Devils are -5 (-110) … that means if you want to bet on Duke as a 5-point favorite, you need to risk $110 to win $100.
The juice can also be a positive number, such as Penn State -7 (+110). That means if you bet $100 on Penn State as a 7-point favorite and it covers, you win $110. If it loses, you lose only the $100 that you risked.

6. How to Place a Bet

With legalized sports betting spreading across America, sports bettors have never had more options to take advantage of. To see if sports betting is legal where you live, check out our state-by-state tracker.
Some of the biggest states that have legalized mobile wagering include New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Indiana and West Virginia. The sportsbooks highlighted below are all trustworthy legal shops that take mobile bets.

7. Rotation Numbers

Rotation numbers are what’s listed to the left of a team on the board. They are also referred to as the NSS number or Vegas ID number. They are unique to the team, sport and league, and universal across most sportsbooks.
For example, you might see the number “312” listed next to the Bruins -120. If you’re at a casino and want to bet $100 on the Bruins, walk up to the window with your money and say, “$100 on 312, Bruins -120.”

8. Lines Move in Real Time

Much like stocks on Wall Street, the sports betting market is fluid. Throughout the day, bookmakers will adjust the odds depending on the action they’re taking and other news, such as injuries and weather. For example, if the Vikings open as 7-point favorites and the vast majority of bets are on the Vikings, you might see the Vikings’ line move from -7 to -7.5. The line could move even further to -8, or it could be “bought back” to -7.
You can monitor betting data for every game in real time on our live odds page or in our mobile app (download here).

9. Shop for the Best Line

Lines can vary based on the sportsbook, because different books have different clienteles. As a result, one book may post the Cavs -8 while another has -7.5. Having access to more than one sportsbook allows you to shop for the best line. Getting an extra half-point might not seem like a huge deal, but it adds up over the long haul and increases your chances of winning.
Our live odds pages will automatically surface the best line for every game.
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Sports Betting 101: Do’s and Don’ts of Sports Betting

Do Go Line Shopping

When you buy food, clothes, or any other item, it makes sense to look for the best price. All else being equal, it’s efficient to want the best possible good for the lowest possible cost. This concept maps perfectly onto sports betting, where all else is always equal. A bet on the New York Yankees is a bet on the Yankees regardless of what sportsbook you place it at, so finding the best price is a singular variable that should be weighed on its own.
Ideally you’d have access to multiple betting outlets and simply bet your game wherever you could find the best price, but at the very least this concept of “line shopping” is a good way to get an indication of value. The convenience of having multiple options for where to place a wager is one reason why Las Vegas is considered by many to be a sports bettor’s paradise. As more and more states and regions come onboard with legalized sports betting, that landscape is set to change, though. Just look at places like New Jersey that now offer multiple outlets for bettors to place wagers at.
If you can bet the Yankees at -150, but at other sportsbooks you’d have to lay -175 or -200, then generally speaking, you’ve stumbled upon a bargain. It can be annoying and time consuming to cross-reference every one of your bets, but fortunately the resources become more and more available as sports betting grows.

Don’t Bet Large Moneyline Favorites

The further away you get from a 50/50 bet, the harder it is to get a fair price. Most sportsbooks price 50/50 propositions at -110 on both sides, but when you’re dealing with lopsided odds, the house cut widens.
If a huge favorite is -3000 to win, you won’t see the underdog remotely close to that number. So if the favorite is -3000 and the underdog is +1500, which is fairly typical or thereabouts, then there’s a good chance the fair number is somewhere in the 2000s, This means that neither side is likely to be worth betting on. Many bettors will mask this problem by parlaying large favorites together so that they can stomach a more manageable payout, but it doesn’t change the fact that the component parts of the bet are inherently bad values.
Making a bet just because you feel like it “can’t lose” is the wrong philosophy, and it’s exacerbated when you delude yourself by combining multiple bets of this nature into one wager. This can become even more problematic when you’re not being offered fair parlay odds. Some sportsbooks do offer fair parlay calculations, but betting on a lot of large money line favorites is still virtually certain to lose you money in the long run.

Do Target Correlated Parlays

Long explanation incoming…
Most people familiar with sports betting will tell you that a parlay is always a bad idea, but it’s not even remotely that simple.
A parlay is essentially a neutral proposition in general, where you are making one bet, and then automatically betting all of the possible winnings on a second, or more bets. There’s nothing particularly useful about doing this, but there’s nothing particularly problematic about doing it either. Having said that, there are some parlays that are absolutely worth considering. Some sportsbooks will let you bet parlays when the bets are actually correlated.
The idea behind a correlated parlay is that the outcome of one bet can influence the result of a second bet, so the combination of two bets can give you a different likelihood of winning than two unrelated bets. For instance, if you bet a parlay on two coin flips, you have a 25% chance to win (.5 x .5 = .25) because those two 50/50 flips are totally independent. But if you bet a parlay on, let’s say, the under and the home team in a baseball game, you actually have more than a 25% chance to win because home wins lead to less runs on average, primarily because the home team doesn’t bat in the bottom of the 9th if they are winning.
Diving deeper into baseball parlays, there are a few things to keep in mind that can give you an advantage. As mentioned above, the existence of an 18th frame (bottom of the 9th) is a chance for more runs to be scored. That alone creates an interrelationship between home victories and reduced run scoring, as well as away victories and increased run scoring, but there’s more to it as well. The rules of baseball also dictate that the game is over once the home team takes the lead in the 9th inning or later, so it’s more difficult for a home team to win by multiple runs than it is for an away team. Yes, multi-run home runs can happen in the 9th inning or later, but this is the only way a home team can win by more than one beyond the 9th. On the other hand, the away team has unlimited run potential in the 9th and extra innings, so there’s increased chance for a total bet to hit the over if the away team does the scoring.

Don’t Chase with Live Bets

Live betting odds are computed with pretty complex algorithms, and just like with large money line betting options, the fair bet is generally somewhere close to the middle.
The bottom line is that both sides of a live bet, in most cases, present less-than-ideal value, due to the increased juice, or higher house cut. Chasing your losses or chasing a pregame wager through live betting can be viewed as a way to get of what you think is a lost cause, but in the long run it’s going to hurt you.
Although, like betting on game props discussed below, it is possible to find some gems when scrolling through live betting odds. For the most part, it’s important to exercise restraint and look elsewhere for better value.

Do Bet Player Props

Player props generally come with increased vigs (-115 or -120 compared to the standard -110), but there is still plenty of opportunity to cash in on them. The most effective way to bet a player prop is simply to rely on a trusted projection system that can spot differences in the betting line and the expected result for a player’s statistics, but the best player prop values usually occur due to injuries.
Wagers are voided if the player of record is scratched from a game, but injuries to surrounding players, usually teammates, can open up some substantial advantages. In basketball, for instance, it’s generally a good idea to bet the over on props for James Harden and Chris Paul when one of the two is ruled out of a game, and same goes for Steph Curry and Kevin Durant, or other combinations of this nature.
You can also bet under props when news breaks about a minutes restriction in basketball, a snap count in football, a pitch limit in baseball, and so on. The main idea is to use your ability to quickly react to news, as player prop lines tend to respond to news more slowly than standard game betting lines.

Don’t Bet Game Props (Usually)

Game props can be viable, but there’s a slew of game props that people bet mostly for fun without realizing how negative the value is that they’re getting. Bets like “team to win first half and full game” or “player to score first basket” or “yes/no game goes to extra innings” just about never come with a fair payout and could ultimately be a disaster for your bankroll.
Sportsbooks know that people usually make these types of bets on a whim. These bets are more for casual bettors who want a more exotic taste of action, but if it’s a bet that a sharp player likes, he or she has likely already gotten in when the price was good. While it’s not absolutely impossible to find a diamond in the rough with these bets, you’re almost certainly better off looking elsewhere.
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Closing Line Value Pt 1

Alright gang – today I’m going to talk about Closing Line Value (CLV): 1) what it is, 2) how to measure it, 3) why it’s useful and 4) ultimately why it’s flawed. This seems to be a polarizing topic so I’m expecting some disagreement and backlash.
I’ll cover 1) and 2) in today’s post and 3) and 4) tomorrow in Part II.
Closing Line Value
For those of you who are new to sports betting, the “Closing Line” is the line/odds of a game when the market for a game closes (i.e. just prior to kickoff/first pitch/tip off, etc.). Closing Line Value (CLV) is simply a comparison between 1) the line/odds that your bet was placed at and 2) the Closing Line.
The theory behind CLV is that if you’re getting a line better than what is offered at the close of the market, that’s generally a good thing. Simple example: you bet the Yankees at -125 and they closed at -150. You got positive CLV. Congrats!
Measuring CLV
Unfortunately, there is no standard approach to measuring CLV.
The Casual Approach: Casually, folks would say you got “25 cents” of CLV. Clearly this is a good thing, as a $100 bet at -125 would win $80, while a $100 bet at -150 would only win $67.
The Win Probability Approach: To get slightly more technical, we can compare the breakeven win probability of your bet at -125 vs the closing line of -150. The breakeven win probability of -150 is 60.0% while the breakeven win probability of -125 is 55.6%. The difference of 4.4% in breakeven win probability is another way to quote your CLV.
The Expected Value Approach: A third approach is to measure CLV based on the expected value of the bet. If you made a bet at a breakeven probability of 55.6% and the closing breakeven probability is 60.0%, you could say that “price” of your bet increased from 55.6% to 60.0% (increase of 4.4%). Therefore your “return” (increase in value) was 4.4% / 55.6% = 8.0%.
Removing Vig
Some people prefer to review their CLV absent the book’s vig. To make this adjustment, we simply remove the half of the vig for that bet (we assume half the vig is charged on both sides of the bet).
Assuming a standard 10-cent baseball line (+140/-150) we would have a closing vig of 1.6%. Our no-vig CLV measurements would be as follows:
The Casual Approach: With a closing line of +140/-150, we estimate that the “fair” price of the favorite is -145. Thus, a comparison of your bet at -125 and the fair price of -145 would only yield “20 cents” of CLV.
The Win Probability Approach: Subtracting half the vig from our breakeven win probability yields a no-vig CLV of 3.6% (4.4% - 0.8%).
The Expected Value Approach: The closing breakeven probability of -145 is 59.2% so the “price” of your bet increased from 55.6% to 59.2% (increase of 3.6%). Therefore your “return” (increase in value) was 3.6% / 55.6% = 6.5%.
While you’re free to measure CLV however you feel like it, theoretically the no-vig expected value approach should best estimate your long-term return based on CLV.
CLV for Point Spread and Totals
To measure CLV for points spreads or totals using the Win Probability Approach or the Expected Value Approach, you need to estimate the push probabilities of the numbers that were crossed (i.e. if you bet -2.5/-110 and the market closed at -3.5/-110, you crossed the 3). You can then compare your bet with the implied “fair” moneyline of your bet based on the closing line. Referencing our NCAAB half point price of 9 cents on the 3, we estimate -2.5/-128 to be the equivalent of -3.5/-110. You can then calculate your CLV just as you had before.
Tomorrow's discussion: how CLV can be useful, but is ultimately a flawed metric
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Modularity

I am building a program that will generate predictions for baseball games (remember baseball?) and compare each teams win probability (as estimated by my program) and the implied probability of the Moneyline available online and then issue bet/don't bet recommendations.
I'm having a ton of trouble with it and it is already by far the most complex program I've built and it's probably only about 30% done. But it is a fun challenge and something to keep me busy while I can't leave the house.
My question, is on making the program "modular". I understand the basic concept (I think) and have been trying to make it as modular as possible. My basic template so far has been have the webscraping programs in one module, the functions that interact with my SQL database in another, the sort of general processing (for lack of a better term) functions in a third module, with a plan to build a main module to bring it all together.
The more I work on this, the more that seems like it is just unnecessary complication. It just seems like it would be much simpler to have it all in one place. The amount of crossover on these functions is very high and some of the webscraping functions need to be called in the database functions etc. If I have four modules that are all connected to each other and all imported into each other, would it not be simpler to just have them all in one? Am I splitting them up incorrectly?
Any rules of thumb, general advice, or resources you could provide would be greatly appreciated.
I will post some of the code for people to see and critique when I actually have a functioning program and can figure out how to use github.
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Online Sports Betting Tips

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Historical odds and results

Buddy of mine and I wanted to try to model a few outcomes.
Is there a place to get the betting odds on baseball and hockey? we figured these would be the easiest because there is no spread variance all bets are either moneyline or 1.5.
Would prefer last season's odds.
Thanks in advance if you can point me in the right direction
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Martin Shkreli Blog - 11/13/2018

Clone of his blog, can be found at martinshkreli.com
Biopharma/Investing
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Moderna is a good short. With winter’s inexorable arrival, concept biotech looks like a good short while there are pockets of good value in high probability development projects and specialty pharma (non-generics).
New generic ROIC has dropped from unbelievable to meh. Only those who can invest heavily in capex or find extreme niches will find success. The overlevered landscape is not auspicious and may help deflate competition at the margin, but an ugly ‘new normal’ is here for generics. I would not be long TEVA, for instance. Buffett may be right (by accident) if the bet is on biosimilars (which Teva is fairly weak in), or perhaps ROW generic performance. But as far as the US is concerned, these armageddon conditions will prevail.
GSK has done a marvelous job replacing AdvaiSeretide. A generic Advair would mean next to nothing to GSK now. They’ve also reshaped the portfolio quite well. Still my favorite big pharma.
SOBI’s new antibody will be really interesting.
We will be doing Celgene as the first “deep dive”. Thanks for your comments.
Papers I’ve Read
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Drosophila model of myosin myopathy rescued by overexpression of a TRIM-protein family member. Dahl-Halvarsson, et al. PNAS 2018.
I am not too familiar with most of the rare disease purely-cardiac myopathies. This was a good catch-up without being a review. The workers overexpressed “Abba/Thin” to rescue Mhc-mutant phenotyes.
Local structure can identify and quantify influential global spreaders in large scale social networks. Hu et al. PNAS 2018.
I’ve been reading more applied math articles. A lot of work has been done on information “spreading” models.
Brief Review – “Things That Mattter” by Charles Krauthammer
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Krauthammer is a transcendent essayist who I’d almost enter into a conspiracy to write like (criminal justice joke). This collection of essays is humbling for any writer, professional or begrudging practitioner (guess which one I am). Further, I just like this guy–a chess and math fan, a conservative and a PHYSICIAN! A lifelong spinal cord injury victim who recently passed away (I think), Krauthammer is a fairly inspirational (and perhaps missed) figure in politics.
This collection of his works shines when it discusses personal affairs, such as the death of a family member, a baseball game and other mundane “things that matter”. His political writing, especially on domestic affairs is also and convincing. He writes accessibly, endearingly and logically–usually without beating the reader over the head. The essays on his interventionalist leanings are less exciting, probably because of my own personal isolationist perspective, but still provide a narrative to consider. I recommend the book to any conservatives confused by the current hyperpartisan/no-compassion meta-neocon-nihilist environment.
Poker
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In a run of bad cards or bad beats, one feels like such an idiot. In the opposite run, an unstoppable player ready for WSOP. Taming those emotions is tough and probably more than 50% of the game. The actual theories are fairly trivial and probabilistic. I think sometimes we read too much into some variables in the game: the ultra-meta is probably not where “the money is”. I’m still feeling my way around this game but I get the sense that interpreting primary game conditions (player tendency variables such as loose/tight, aggressive/passive, pre-flop playbook, general aptitude, always cbet/not always cbet; aggregate table tendencies such as volume, speed, etc.), emotional control and good theoretical underpinnings are the likely key to the game. Most top players will not edge each other out over the long run. I could be very wrong on that but I doubt the money is made being Tom Brady vs. Brett Favre, but just in being a NFL starting QB vs. not being an NFL starting QB.
My last big bad beat was a Qs flush from the flop, outdrew by the Kxo when the fourth spade flopped. Drawer is gonna draw.
Sorry for the typo in the last hand I posted! Will try not to make it happen again.
Football/Basketball
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My Bills came through, in the “battle of the bums” against the sorry Jets. I pushed on the sorry Jags and lost with the Dolphins. So 9-2-1, last 12 games. I’ve toned down the NBA as my bankroll suffered but will be returning soon.
Why did it suffer? I took the Golden State moneyline, which was a “too good to be true” 40c on the dollar. Of course, for their 2nd loss of the season, the Warriors went down.
Personal
————
To all the US Senators who were not re-elected and used me as a campaign prop. You barked up the wrong tree. That tree fell on you. I make no apologies–you made your own bed. To all future would-be political opponents: I have a very long memory and an enormous amount of money growing at a rapid pace. Play games with your career at your own risk.
Clinton running in 2020 would provide me great joy. I will move Heaven and Earth to ensure she will never see the White House again.
submitted by Shkreli_Sucker to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Attempt to Prove the MLB Run Line Betting System Theory

Attempt to Prove the MLB Run Line Betting System Theory

Link for reference
Hypothesis #1: One can maintain a profitable betting system by betting the -1.5 Run Line for the Favorite and the -1.5 Adjusted Run Line for the Underdog in any given game.
Hypothesis #2: If not all games are profitable given the above system, then one should be able to at least identify those games which are more likely to turn a profit, and maintain a profitable betting system by only betting on games which fit that criteria.
Summary
Betting a combination of the -1.5 Run Lines for the Favorites and Underdogs is not profitable in the long term for any MLB games.
Approach
Normally, in order to prove or disprove a betting system theory like this, one has to gather, process, and analyze years worth of data – odds and results for thousands of games. This can be a difficult endeavor for several reasons.
Luckily, in the case of Major League Baseball, there is a much more convenient option.
Ever notice that sometimes the most dangerous offense in the league can be going up against a 4.55 ERA journeyman and get shut out? And every once in a while Clayton Kershaw will get knocked around for 5 innings before leaving early with 6 earned runs? We all know that scoring in baseball, possibly more than any other sport, is subject to a huge number of variables…and random luck.
It has been shown by baseball sabermetricians that the distribution of runs scored in baseball can be very closely approximated by a Negative Binomial Distribution (NBD), which is a well-known mathematical function used to model special types of discrete distributions. NBD has to be modified a bit to comply with baseball, but once the proper adjustments are made, it’s nearly a perfect fit. Prior to encountering this MLB Run Line Betting System Theory, I had built a model that incorporated this concept, and I’ve retrofitted that logic for our purposes here.
The following graph is an example of the Probability Mass Function (PMF) as defined by NBD for a Home Team having an average expectation of 10 runs scored vs. an Away Team having an average expectation of 2.5 runs scored.
IMAGE #1
Number of runs scored is along the X axis, and % Probability of the team scoring that many runs is along the Y axis. If these 2 teams were to play each other – let’s say – 10,000 times under the exact same conditions (same lineup, starting pitcher, days rest, home ball park, etc.), the Home Team’s longer curve shows that they would be expected to score a higher number of runs more often than the Away Team. Meanwhile, the Away Team’s curve has a higher peak, but a shorter distance, meaning that they’ll be expected to score a smaller number of runs most of the time. On any given day, the Away Team might outscore the Home Team, but over the long term, all of the individual scores will add up to the curve you see here, and the Home Team will score a higher number of runs more often than not.
Ten runs to 2.5 runs is obviously an extreme example to illustrate the differences between high- and low-scoring teams. Let’s take a look at a more realistic example – Home Team with an average expectation of 5 runs vs. Away Team with an average expectation of 4 runs.
IMAGE #2
Okay, what the hell does this have to do with proving or disproving this theory? Well, using the same Probability Mass Function used to generate these sample graphs, I can model the probable scoring outcome of any given game. All I need is the expected runs scored for Team A and Team B.
Now you might be thinking, well that’s perfect because most books provide the Team Total O/U numbers per team. Yes, but unfortunately, I don’t believe those are very usable for this purpose. There seems to be a few layers of rounding and line shading going on, so the Team Totals aren’t very reliable. Here is what I did instead:
  1. Use Team A and Team B’s Moneyline odds to calculate the implied win probability for each team.
    IMPORTANT: Don’t forget to calculate and remove the vigorish across both Moneyline odds. Otherwise, your probabilities will be artificially under-inflated.
    Example: ML odds of -190 and +178 translates into Expected Win Probabilities of 64.6% and 35.4%, respectively.
  2. Using these Win Probabilities, perform a backwards application of the Pythagorean Win Expectation Formula to reverse engineer the respective Expected Run Totals for each team.
    In our example, these Expected Run Totals turn out to be 4.38 and 3.12.
  3. Repeat #1 and 2 for every game being analyzed.
Now that I have a list of Expected Run Totals for each team in every game, I can calculate the probability of:
• Team A -1.5 Run Line Wins
• Team B -1.5 Run Line Wins
• Neither Team A nor Team B -1.5 Run Lines Win (both lose)
And by Performing a sum-product of the Probabilities X Potential Profit for each of these three scenarios, one can calculate the Expected Value (EV) of this system for every game.
Conclusions
I followed this approach for every game available on BetOnline and Heritage yesterday and today, and here is what I found:
• Every single game is -EV using this theory. There were no exceptions. This means that, while you might win occasionally due to variance and random luck, you should expect to lose money over the long run.
• The average EV across all games was -0.20 units.
• The best EV for a single game was -0.06 units. While close to break even, this is still a long-term loser.
• Heritage had one game that was a strange outlier (-0.99 units). If that outlier is removed, the average EV across all games increased to -0.15 units.
• Heritage performed slightly better than BetOnline (-0.13 vs. -0.17), which I suppose should be expected due to it having lower % juice across all bets.
Further Research
If the results were even slightly promising, I would invest more time performing this analysis across many more dates, games, and sportsbooks. Admittedly, just 2 days of games across 2 sportsbooks is a very small sample size. Furthermore, I would move on to testing a massive amount of real-life historical game data - odds and scores. However, the results seem to be confirming what we should already know – that sportsbook odds are designed to be -EV by their very nature, and it is impossible to create a +EV scenario simply by adding two -EV wagers together.
If anyone wants me to analyze some games that they believe might be good candidates to break this rule, I can reproduce the calculations easily in Excel. Just send me a list of games, with each row having the following columns:
• Sportsbook
• Game Date
• Team A Name
• Team B Name
• Game Total (from sportsbook)
• Team A Moneyline Odds (from sportsbook - American format preferred, decimal format acceptable)
• Team B Moneyline Odds (from sportsbook - American format preferred, decimal format acceptable)
• Team A -1.5 Runline Odds (from sportsbook - American format preferred, decimal format acceptable)
• Team B -1.5 Runline Odds (from sportsbook - American format preferred, decimal format acceptable)
submitted by djbayko to sportsbook [link] [comments]

Historical odds and results

Buddy of mine and I wanted to try to model a few outcomes.
Is there a place to get the betting odds on baseball and hockey? we figured these would be the easiest because there is no spread variance all bets are either moneyline or 1.5.
Would prefer last season's odds.
Thanks in advance if you can point me in the right direction
submitted by YouSoIgnant to sportsbetting [link] [comments]

Best Sport To Bet On?

Without a doubt, MLB is the best sport to bet on. With American Football you need to win at least 52.5% of your games to just break even. But in baseball, you just need around a 40% win rate, WHY!!! Because NFL spreads are expensive with -110 -115 the norm but with baseball you can cash in on big underdogs or even get the +1.5 with plus money. Yes you can bet with the moneyline with NFL games but most of the time they are too espensive or taking the browns over the patriots straight up no spread. BET ON BASEBALL AND LETS GOOO!!!. VISIT US AT SportsTrader.pro
submitted by cryptojanitor to SportsTraderPro [link] [comments]

Sports betting Baseball strategies And Tips?

Im heading to a casino in about 3 weeks. I plan on doing a lot of betting on baseball (moneyline, runline, oveunder, parlays etc.) I have been doing research, picking teams and tracking progress. Looking for tips and advice.
  1. For those who bet on baseball, what are the types of things you look for? (Stats, etc.)
  2. Betting strategies?
  3. Have you ever had success doing so?
  4. Is buying a cheap subscription for "expert" advice worth it?
submitted by eskort29 to gambling [link] [comments]

I read the book Trading Bases and have been working on this...looking for feedback.

getting zero response on baseball , maybe ill have better luck here.
After reading the book and learning how the author Joe Peta projected MLB games to bet on, I decided to give it a shot myself using the same principles. I was gonna start off small, but just kept adding things.
I am still about 2 - 3 weeks from completing it but its far enough along to show people and Im hoping to get some feedback.
Its a dashboard that pulls the sportsbook daily mlb lines, and calculates the implied odds and compares that to the what my model comes up with. The model makes picks based on straight percentages... but when theres a difference vs the line's Implied odds, it makes a suggestion (% bankroll or even to go opposite). I also throw in a column to track statswin... a free twitter account that another reddit user alexanimal put up (that got me started on this whole thing). Also if you track a game by clicking on the line or on the oddbot pick (kind of buggy) , it will grab live game scoring updates to show you. The picks have been pretty good so far. been hovering between 56 and 61% on money line. over under needs work. and runline just follows moneyline.
Right now you can enter an email that will record your picks to a database and i will allow you to view those at a later date. Coming soon will be the ability to enter an amount you bet and track that.
I still have 2 variations of the model i want to test out. I hope to be done by the end of July so we can all use it for the final 2 months of the season. thanks
edit: woops, a url would be handy huh? oddpal.com
submitted by rvncto to sportsbook [link] [comments]

3/24

I love betting on baseball!
MLB
Tourny Disclaimer: I really like Butler. I'm a native San Diegan so obvi I'm rooting for the Aztecs, but I really like Butler. That coach is a stud, and Howard is legit. It pains me to pick against them, but I'm in the business of making money. Sigh
So here's the deal. Wisconsin and Butler are very slow tempo teams that make the most out of their possessions. Wisky is #2 in the nation in possession scoring. Also, Butler has been fortunate and taking advantage of turnovers. Butler gets killed in rebounding but have made up for it with turnovers. Problem is, Wisky is 13th in the nation in turnovers (least amount). As much as I want Butler to win, the #'s don't add up :(
Now for SDSU, it's easy. They are way deeper then Uconn. I don't care about Kemba, he'll get his, but at the end of this game the bench points are going to be ridiculously one sided. I'm so fucking pissed about that Cincy game as it cost me a fat parlay. UConn shoulda lost, Cincy missed 9 layups I believe. SDSU executes and will beat UConn's ass. I hate UConn, bring it on.
Florida is simple. Their big men will devour BYU without Davies. This is the game where it's evident they need Davies to succeed. Moneyline just to be safe.
GL
Lots of big boy money rolling in on the Aztecs they are now 1.5 pt favs as aposed to 1 pt dogs an hour ago
submitted by jacobs64 to sportsbook [link] [comments]

Betting and spread analysis: Rays vs Indians + Bills vs Browns

Rays vs Indians
Alex Cobb (11-3) (RHP) vs Danny Salazar (2-3) (RHP)
Last 10 games:
Last 3 starts:
Runline:
Moneyline (Straight bet):
o/u: 7
Given these numbers, I feel the safe bet to take is the straight bet. The payouts are very similar, and sometimes its best to go on your gut. Trying to guess the winner of a one game playoff is damn near impossible. However, consider that TB has won 4 out of the 6 meetings against Cleveland this year by an average margin of 6.25 runs.
I feel the most interesting bet is the o/u. The Rays average 4.9 runs per game and Cleveland averages 5.7. The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games, and the total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games when playing on the road against Cleveland. You also have two pitchers making their first playoff starts ever. Things can unravel really quickly and the runs can pile up. If I were to bet on the o/u, I am taking the over.
Baseball, in my opinion, is one of the hardest sports to bet on when it comes to runlines, especially when two teams with poised pitching are facing each other. I expect this one to be close all the way through, so I would take CLE and the +1.5.
Bills (2-2) vs Browns (2-2)
Line:
Moneyline (straight bet):
o/u: 40.5
Last two games:
Boy, has Cleveland been on fire these past two weeks. Hoyer "The destroyer", who started his first game two weeks ago over the injured Weeden, seems to have the Browns on the turnaround. They are currently tied for first place in the AFC North. He is averaging just under 300 YPG. On the other side, you have EJ Manuel who has shown flashes of brilliance and flashes of mediocrity. Buffalo is dependent on their run game to succeed. If Spiller and Jackson can get going, Buffalo would love to control the clock.
Now even though Cleveland seems revitalized, I do not feel comfortable taking them with the (-4). I feel they could easily lost this game and revert back to their familiar ways. The bills now have 120 minutes worth of film on Hoyer, so he won't be as much of a surprise anymore. I do not feel the point spread is the bet to take.
I also do not feel comfortable taking the o/u. I think I am forgoing all o/u bets this season. The league is undergoing a great change in terms of PPG. Almost every NFL game has an o/u of 40-45 points. That is just absurd. How can one possibly predict that?
The straight bet is also discouraging to me. This game is truly unpredictable. I would not wager one single dollar on this game.
submitted by newtothelyte to sports [link] [comments]

Afternoon baseball bets? Why not.

I put in 4 afternoon baseball bets to make the rest of the work day interesting. Going with 2 dogs and 2 favorites here:
Rays -114 at Indians: $40 for $35.08 Cubs +142 at home vs Cards: $30 for $42.60 profit (Berkman's out for the Cards) Rockies -180 at home vs Mets: $50 for $30 profit DBacks +112 at Giants (Buster Posey's out for SF): $40 for $44.80
I'm taking whatever winnings I have on this and tossing it on the Bulls moneyline tonight.
submitted by buckets_ftw to sportsbook [link] [comments]

DISCUSSION 10-2-13: Rays vs Indians + Bills vs Browns

Rays vs Indians
Alex Cobb (11-3) (RHP) vs Danny Salazar (2-3) (RHP)
Last 10 games:
Last 3 starts:
Runline:
Moneyline (Straight bet):
o/u: 7
Given these numbers, I feel the safe bet to take is the straight bet. The payouts are very similar, and sometimes its best to go on your gut. Trying to guess the winner of a one game playoff is damn near impossible. However, consider that TB has won 4 out of the 6 meetings against Cleveland this year by an average margin of 6.25 runs.
I feel the most interesting bet is the o/u. The Rays average 4.9 runs per game and Cleveland averages 5.7. The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games, and the total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games when playing on the road against Cleveland. You also have two pitchers making their first playoff starts ever. Things can unravel really quickly and the runs can pile up. If I were to bet on the o/u, I am taking the over.
Baseball, in my opinion, is one of the hardest sports to bet on when it comes to runlines, especially when two teams with poised pitching are facing each other. I expect this one to be close all the way through, so I would take CLE and the +1.5.
Bills (2-2) vs Browns (2-2)
Line:
Moneyline (straight bet):
o/u: 40.5
Last two games:
Boy, has Cleveland been on fire these past two weeks. Hoyer "The destroyer", who started his first game two weeks ago over the injured Weeden, seems to have the Browns on the turnaround. They are currently tied for first place in the AFC North. He is averaging just under 300 YPG. On the other side, you have EJ Manuel who has shown flashes of brilliance and flashes of mediocrity. Buffalo is dependent on their run game to succeed. If Spiller and Jackson can get going, Buffalo would love to control the clock.
Now even though Cleveland seems revitalized, I do not feel comfortable taking them with the (-4). I feel they could easily lost this game and revert back to their familiar ways. The bills now have 120 minutes worth of film on Hoyer, so he won't be as much of a surprise anymore. I do not feel the point spread is the bet to take.
I also do not feel comfortable taking the o/u. I think I am forgoing all o/u bets this season. The league is undergoing a great change in terms of PPG. Almost every NFL game has an o/u of 40-45 points. That is just absurd. How can one possibly predict that?
The straight bet is also discouraging to me. This game is truly unpredictable. I would not wager one single dollar on this game.
submitted by newtothelyte to SportsBets [link] [comments]

Our recommended online baseball betting site puts the baseball money line odds at: Philadelphia Phillies (-200) Pittsburgh Pirates (+170) The negative sign (-) beside 200 shows that Philadelphia is the favorite to win the match. What this simply means is that if you bet on the Phillies, then you need to bet $200 to win $100. Understanding Moneyline Baseball Wagering: How MLB Betting Odds Work. BY Jack Jones Baseball. Updated May 6, 2019 . The point spread is such a ubiquitous part of sports gambling that it has become fodder for pundits and fans who would never place a wager. “Notre Dame is giving up 6 points to USC,” someone might say. Moneyline betting is an American term for the betting market match winner which is simply a wagering option for which team will win a match with no handicap involved. This is the most common way betting is done on baseball and hockey games and for basketball and football it is a popular alternative to point spread betting.In this article I will explain how the odds work, introduce the websites Everyone makes moneyline bets without even knowing it. Even non-gamblers make moneyline bets. Betting the moneyline for a game is possibly the most simple way to wager on sports. Bettors just choose a player or team to win.If the bettor chooses the winning side, the sportsbook will pay the amount due. Odds Shark’s Moneyline Betting Guide will explain the wide variety of moneyline bets that can be made, why and how sportsbooks display the odds and how the moneyline differs from other betting options like point spreads or totals. For baseball, MLB final scores can vary but generally don’t surpass 12 runs between the two teams. That’s

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