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General Election Polling Discussion Thread (June 2020)

Introduction

Welcome to the /politics polling discussion thread for the general election. As the election nears, polling of both the national presidential popular vote and important swing states is ramping up, and with both parties effectively deciding on nominees, pollsters can get in the field to start assessing the state of the presidential race.
Please use this thread to discuss polling and the general state of the presidential or congressional election. Below, you'll find some of the most recent polls, but this is by no means exhaustive, as well as some links to prognosticators sharing election models.
As always though, polls don't vote, people do. Regardless of whether your candidate is doing well or poorly, democracy only works when people vote, and there are always at least a couple polling misses every cycle, some of which are pretty high profile. If you haven't yet done so, please take some time to register to vote or check your registration status.

Polls

Below is a collection of recent polling of the US Presidential election. This is likely incomplete and also omits the generic congressional ballot as well as Senate/House/Gubernatorial numbers that may accompany these polls. Please use the discussion space below to discuss any additional polls not covered. Additionally, not all polls are created equal. If this is your first time looking at polls, the FiveThirtyEight pollster ratings page is a helpful tool to assess historic partisan lean in certain pollsters, as well as their past performance.
Pollster Date Released Race Trump Biden
Yougov 6/26 National 39 47
Marist/NPPBS 6/26 National 44 52
HarrisX 6/26 National 39 43
KFF 6/26 National 38 51
Climate Nexus 6/26 National 41 48
Fox News 6/25 Texas 44 45
Fox News 6/25 N. Carolina 45 47
Fox News 6/25 Georgia 45 47
Fox News 6/25 Florida 40 49
CNBC/Hart/POS 6/25 National 38 47
Hodas (R) 6/25 Michigan 38 56
Hodas (R) 6/25 Wisconsin 39 55
Hodas (R) 6/25 Pennsylvania 42 54
Redfield & Wilton 6/25 Wisconsin 36 45
Redfield & Wilton 6/25 N. Carolina 40 46
Redfield & Wilton 6/25 Arizona 39 43
Redfield & Wilton 6/25 Michigan 36 47
Redfield & Wilton 6/25 Pennsylvania 39 49
Redfield & Wilton 6/25 Florida 41 45
Siena/NYT Upshot 6/25 N. Carolina 40 49
Siena/NYT Upshot 6/25 Florida 41 47
Siena/NYT Upshot 6/25 Michigan 36 47
Siena/NYT Upshot 6/25 Pennsylvania 40 50
Siena/NYT Upshot 6/25 Arizona 41 48
Data for Progress 6/24 National 44 50
PPP (D) 6/24 N. Carolina 46 48
Ipsos 6/24 National 37 47
Quinnipiac U. 6/24 Ohio 45 46
Siena/NYT Upshot 6/24 National 36 50
Morning Consult 6/24 National 39 47
Marquette LS 6/24 Wisconsin 42 51
PPP (D) 6/23 National 43 52
PPP (D) 6/23 Texas 48 46
Trafalgar (R) 6/22 Michigan 45 46
Echelon 6/22 National 42 50
Gravis 6/20 Minnesota 42 58
SurveyMonkey 6/20 National 43 53
Gravis/OANN 6/20 N. Carolina 46 43
Saint Anselm College 6/18 New Hampshire 42 49
Fox News 6/18 National 38 50
0ptimus 6/18 National 44 50
Civiqs (D) 6/18 Kentucky 57 37
Quinnipiac U. 6/18 National 41 49
UCLA/Democracy Fund 6/18 National 39 50
Change Research 6/17 Arizona 44 45
Change Research 6/17 N. Carolina 45 47
Change Research 6/17 Michigan 45 47
Change Research 6/17 Wisconsin 44 48
Change Research 6/17 Pennsylvania 46 49
Change Research 6/17 Florida 43 50
Change Research 6/17 National 41 51
Civiqs (D) 6/16 Arizona 45 49
PPP (D) 6/16 Georgia 46 48
PPP (D) 6/16 New Mexico 39 53
TIPP/Am. Greatness (R) 6/16 Michigan 38 51
TIPP/Am. Greatness (R) 6/16 Florida 40 51
NORC/AEI 6/16 National 32 40
EPIC-MRA 6/16 Michigan 39 55
Scott Rasmussen 6/15 National 36 48
Abacus Data 6/15 National 41 51
SelzeDMR 6/15 Iowa 44 43
Hendrix College 6/14 Arkansas 47 45
Remington Research (R) 6/13 Missouri 51 43
Meeting Street Insights 6/12 National 38 49

Election Predictions

Prognosticators

Prognosticators are folks who make projected electoral maps, often on the strength of educated guesses as well as inside information in some cases from campaigns sharing internals with the teams involved. Below are a few of these prognosticators and their assessment of the state of the race:

Polling Models

Polling models are similar to prognosticators (and often the model authors will act like pundits as well), but tend to be about making "educated guesses" on the state of the election. Generally, the models are structured to take in data such as polls and electoral fundamentals, and make a guess based on research on prior elections as to the state of the race in each state. Below are a few of the more prominent models that are online or expected to be online soon:

Prediction Markets

Prediction markets are betting markets where people put money on the line to estimate the likelihood of one party winning a seat or state. Most of these markets will also tend to move depending on polling and other socioeconomic factors in the same way that prognosticators and models will work. Predictit and Election Betting Odds are prominent in this space, although RealClearPolitics has an aggregate of other betting sites as well.
submitted by Isentrope to politics [link] [comments]

DKNG - Fundamental DD Inside - DKNG

This is an example of fundamental DD that takes place at ‘smart’ money institutions based on my professional experience in IBD, Private Equity & most recently at a HF (mods can message me for proof). Not thoroughly fleshed out b/c you autists have limited attention spans, but a summary. Figured I’d take the time to give back to this community that has provided many lolz, & should be a good measuring stick when evaluating other forms of fundamental DD posted here.
NFA.
DKNG - DraftKings, Inc.: vertically integrated US mobile betting operator that also provides retail sports betting & back-end betting solutions through SBTech. Think of SBTech as the tech ‘market-maker’ for traditional sports betting, they do all the funny math to set the betting odds & seem to be working on back-end solutions for DKNG Casino
The Big Picture
Only ~2% of the ~$90Bn gambling revenues were placed online which is the lowest in the world where betting online is legal. For example, in other countries online gaming activity represents ~6% - ~52% of total gambling revenues, with ~12% being the average.
Wall Street expects online gaming revenue to be $20Bn-$40Bn within the next 10 years. For this to be achieved, the online gambling market will have to achieve a ~30% penetration rate on total country gaming revenues. There is an expectation that this is could be easily achievable given penetration trends overseas - see page 11 of this: https://s1.rationalcdn.com/vendors/stars-group/documents/presentations/TSG-Investor-Day_March-27-2019.pdf
Other catalysts include increasing adaptation of sports betting in more states. States that have both legal sports betting + online sports betting permitted: NV, NJ, WV, PA, IA. Sports betting permitted but no online: DE, MS, RI, MO, AR. Prior to COVID there was ongoing discussions across many States, especially ones with growing deficits to explore how permitting sports betting could create a fresh avenue of tax dollars. Post COVID there is an expectation that these discussions will be given extra focus as many States will be hungry for incremental tax dollars. Important to note that currently 43/50 States allow DFS, but given the small share DFS has on total Gaming Revenues, it increasingly looks like DKNG is banking on traditional sports betting for a variety of reasons, more later. There are entire articles on Google arguing this catalyst so I’ll end this here.
Digging Deeper
DKNG’s main offerings are Daily Fantasy Sports (“DFS”) products & traditional sports book products to its clients. Long story short, a metric to look for in my opinion (that is curiously not reported by management or remarked on) is the hold % in traditional gaming sector parlance or the ‘rake’ & compare it to the ‘traditional’ gaming products like sports betting & Blackjack.
For DFS: DKNG takes ~15% of the prize pool (note: used to be ~6-11% [2]). Curiously, their main competitor FanDuel also has moved up to a ~15% rake recently. Google searches show the smaller competitors have a rake in the ~13% range.
This ‘rake’ has grown ~2x in 6 years, but it has been a delicate move on behalf of management. Why? B/c the more ‘sophisticated’ DFS players (equal to autistic day traders on Robinhood) have noted this increase & based on some Googling, some have moved down market to the smaller players. As a side note, many live casino games have their rules altered to grow the Hold %. For example, Blackjack games with 6:5 payouts on 21 have materially higher Hold % than the traditional BJ rules that pay out 3:2. Given the findings so far, DKNG may not have much room to materially increase its hold % in DFS games in the near-term from current of 15%. More on this later.
Now why the fuck is this important? This is important b/c the typical sports book (ex-Parlays) have a ~5% hold %/rake. Parlays have up to a ~30% hold (which is why it’s commonly known as the sucker’s bet), & just for reference, the average Blackjack table clocks in 14.5%. What this means: Every dollar put into these games, the “House” or DKNG, will take 15% of your money for DFS games, for sports bets they will be pocketing ~5%, up to ~30% if you’re into parlays, & we’ll just use the standard 14.5% BJ hold for the DraftKings Casino platform.
So why the acquisition of SBTech & a foray into the traditional sports gambling market? As you can see previously, the illegal sports betting market is >30x the size of the current daily fantasy sports market. So it’s clear that the DFS providers including DKNG are foraying into the space to capture this user base & hopefully convert them into games that have a higher hold %, such as DFS/DKNG Casino.
As of May 2020, DKNG has achieved a 30% penetration rate on its ~4mm ‘monetized’ DFS clientele to its Online Sports Book (OSB), from the OSB+DFS clientele, DKNG has converted 50% into its DraftKings Casino platform.
Including non-monetized users, user base totals at 12mm. Based on these unit economics: every 1mm of additional users -> 333k monetized users for DFS -> 100k users for OSB -> 50k users for DraftKings Casino.
Some Numbers – Italicized/Bolded the important
Numbers that represent Risks to Long Thesis
Things to look for when going Long
- Progress of additional States legalizing sports betting – specifically, States with DFS already legalized
- Cost structure evolving to a more fixed mix vs. the mostly variable mix currently as this will be the forward figure that determines profitability
- Increasing User Base (Curr.: 12mm) -> Monetized Base (Curr.: 4mm) -> MUP (1Q’20: 0.7mm)
Share Price Target
Given the cost structure of the company, I’m going to base the price targets around Enterprise Value / Revenues (driven by MUPs & ARPUs).
Bear Case MUP: 5mm -> $20.32 - $45.73
Base Case MUP: 5.5mm -> $22.27 - $50.10
Bull Case MUP: 6mm -> $24.21 - $54.47
These MUPs imply a monetized customer base of 28mm – 33mm. At the high-end, this implies that DKNG monetized customer base will equal MGM’s current total user base.
At yesterday’s close of $43.70, DKNG is trading at 3.5x – 4.5x forward Revenues on an expected >5,000 MUPs.
Share Price drivers / considerations:
- Continued multiple expansion
- MUP Growth exceeding beyond targets
Management Team
Jason Robins, 39 – Co-Founder & CEO. Duke BA, started DraftKings from day 1 in 2011. The 2 other buddies he started the Company with are still at DKNG. Dude navigated the Company through the scandal that rocked them in ’15 & ’16, and was the trailblazer in getting DFS labeled as a non-gambling product that enabled it to open in States without a gaming designation. This shit is the stuff that gets people in history books. His accomplishments make him seem like a very competent guy. Has 3 kids now, and only ~3% economic ownership in DKNG but has 90% of the voting power through his Class B share ownership. Also he actively participates in venture investments, sitting on 10 boards.
His comp plan performance bonus target is pretty murky, but main drivers are EPS growth, revenue growth, then a bunch of margin & return metrics, along with share price returns. Overall, very open-ended & it’s safe to say as long as shit doesn’t hit the fan, he will be eligible for his max payouts year over year. I’m assuming the lawyers tried to encompass everything possible for maximum flexibility to justify him earning his max comp as long as DKNG is still around.
Since he’s got voting control of 90%, I’ll end the specific-person overview here, but want to note that they have a very bloated C-suite. 12 folks at DKNG, 8 folks at SBTech, all with C-suite designations. Whereas their main competitor FanDuel, has 3 guys with a C-suite designations & 1 EVP, but is a sub under a larger ParentCo that has its own management team of ~5 guys.
Looking through glassdoor you can see the biggest complaint among employees giving bad reviews is based on management, all of the specific issues they point out IMO are a result of a top-heavy company. Seems like a good starting point to optimize their cost structure, but given Robins' history of sticking this entire thing through with his co-founders since '11 stuff like this doesn't seem to be a part of his playbook. They’re a public company now though, so it’s going to be interesting to see going forward.
TL;DR:
If I were to initiate a position in DKNG, the stock would have to fall to the $35-$37 range for me to be a buyer of the stock, and based on this rough intro analysis I'll be considering Put options if it breaches $50. I would not touch Calls at this level.

[1] Susquehanna Research – U.S. Online Gambling 6/27/19
[2] https://rotogrinders.com/articles/bang-for-your-buck-a-look-at-dfs-industry-rake-153302
[3] https://draftkings.gcs-web.com/static-files/8f3a5c5a-7228-45bf-aab2-63604111c48d
[4] Goldman Sachs Research – DKNG Initiation 5/19/20
[5]https://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/223071/Dont_monetize_like_League_of_Legends_consultant_says.php
[6] https://rotogrinders.com/threads/how-many-people-actually-play-dfs-regularly-252044
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Wall Street Breakfast: The Week Ahead. I read this and thought it interesting. Enjoy from SeekingAlpha

Nike (NYSE:NKE) will headline a light roster of earnings reports in the week ahead, while Apple's (NASDAQ:AAPL) WWDC event sets the stage for the company's launch of the first 5G iPhones later this year. On the economic front, reports on existing home sales, jobless claims, consumer spending and a Q1 GDP revision will be the headliners. Fed heads are out in force next week, with virtual speeches on the docket for Raphael Bostic, James Bullard and Charles Evans. In a sign of normalcy, Ford (NYSE:F) and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (NYSE:FCAU) are expected to return to pre-pandemic production levels at U.S. plants, while results of Fed stress tests on major banks will be announced on June 25.
Earnings spotlight: IHS Market (NYSE:INFO) on June 23; BlackBerry (NYSE:BB), KB Home (NYSE:KBH) and National Beverage (NASDAQ:FIZZ) on June 24; Nike (NKE), Darden Restaurants (NYSE:DRI), Accenture (NYSE:ACN) and Rite Aid (NYSE:RAD) on June 25.
IPO watch: U.S. grocery store operator Albertsons (ACI) is expected to price its IPO next week and begin to trade. The company could have a valuation of over $10B if the IPO prices at the midpoint of the expected range of $18 to $20 range. Albertsons, which is looking to raise as much as $2B, is one of the grocery chains seeing a sales boom in business during the coronavirus pandemic. Stakeholders Kimco Realty (NYSE:KIM) and Cerberus Capital are both selling off shares in the offering. No other IPOs are due to price during the week.
M&A tidbits: The walk date for the Caesars Entertainment (NASDAQ:CZR)-Eldorado Resorts (NASDAQ:ERI) merger arrives on June 24, although no surprises are anticipated. Shareholders vote on the Provident Financial (NYSE:PFS)-SB One Bancorp (NASDAQ:SBBX) deal on June 25. On the same date, Delphi Technologies (NYSE:DLPH) shareholders vote on the merger with BorgWarner (NYSE:BWA). It is almost a lock that there will be some more drama in the Taubman Centers (NYSE:TCO)-Simon Property (NYSE:SPG) duel.
Projected dividend changes (quarterly): Kroger (NYSE:KR) to $0.17 from $0.16, John Wiley (NYSE:JW.A) to $0.35 from $0.34, Saul Centers (NYSE:BFS) to $0.27 from $0.53.
Spotlight on Nike: Nike will post its FQ4 report with more uncertainty in the air than almost any time before due to the lack of formal guidance from the company. The two biggest pullouts from the report are likely to be the pace of recovery in China and the momentum of the e-commerce business. Nike is one of the companies seen by Wall Street as in a strong position on the other side of the pandemic. "We see Nike as favorably positioned for both secular fitness/casualization trends and industry structural changes that benefit those with strong direct engagement with consumers," notes bullish-leaning Wells Fargo ahead of the print. Stocks that quite often move right along with Nike on earnings day include Foot Locker (NYSE:FL), adidas (OTCQX:ADDYY), Under Armour (NYSE:UAA) and Dick's Sporting Goods (NYSE:DKS).
WWDC: Apple will hold its annual developers conference on June 22-26 in a virtual format this year. Apple is expected to announce its ARM-based Macs as the company advances its control of chips and architecture away from Intel (NASDAQ:INTC). Enhancements with iOS14, tvOS 14 and watchOS 7 are also anticipated, along with new products/R&D initiatives on the AR headset and wearables/AirPods front. Tim Cook will give the keynote presentation on June 22 at 10:00 Pacific time in what is likely to be his last presentation before the annual September iPhone reveal event.
Healthcare watch: Bristol-Myers Squibb (NYSE:BMY) has an investor series presentation next week covering its early pipeline/immuno-oncology on June 22 and hematology on June 25. PDUFA dates arrive for Karyopharm Therapeutics' (NASDAQ:KPTI) Xpovio on June 23, Zogenix's (NASDAQ:ZGNX) Fintepla on June 25 and Heron Therapeutics' (NASDAQ:HRTX) HTX-011 on June 26. The big event of the week in the sector is the American Association for Cancer Research (AACR) Virtual Annual Meeting II running from June 22-24. A large number of potentially market-moving posters and abstracts are due to be released, as well as special sessions on COVID-19 and cancer research. Some of the notable companies due to present include Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ:GILD), AstraZeneca (NYSE:AZN), Phio Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:PHIO), Exicure (NASDAQ:OTC:XCUR), Xencor (NASDAQ:XNCR), ESSA Pharma (NASDAQ:EPIX), ImmunoGen (NASDAQ:IMGN), Molecular Templates (NASDAQ:MTEM), Guardant Health (NASDAQ:GH), CRISPR Therapeutics (NASDAQ:CRSP), Jounce Therapeutics (NASDAQ:JNCE), GlycoMimetics (NASDAQ:GLYC), Seattle Genetics (NASDAQ:SGEN), Provectus Therapeutics (OTC:PVCT), ORIC Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:ORIC), Sanofi (NASDAQ:SNY), aTyr Pharma (NASDAQ:LIFE), TG Therapeutics (NASDAQ:TGTX) and Neoleukin Therapeutics (NASDAQ:NLTX).
Bank tests: The Federal Reserve will release results of the annual bank stress tests on June 25. Fed Vice Chair Randal Quarles noted that the test this year includes running banks up against three possible economic trajectories of varying severity to see how they perform due to the unprecedented uncertainty about the pandemic. The test will see how banks perform against a rapid V-shaped recovery, a slower U-shaped recovery and a rough W-shaped recovery. The test results could factor in to dividend decisions down the road for Bank of America (NYSE:BAC), Citigroup (NYSE:C), Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) and JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM), while Capital One (NYSE:COF) and Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) are seen being pushed under the scenarios. Traders are making plays based on the results, with a notable amount of bullish options bets being placed on Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC). Some other bank names to watch when the results roll out are PNC Financial (NYSE:PNC), Truist (NYSE:TFC), Regions Financial (NYSE:RF), Ally Financial (NYSE:ALLY), HSBC North America (NYSE:HSBC), UBS (NYSE:UBS), Credit Suisse (NYSE:CS), Barclays (NYSE:BCS), Bank of New York Mellon (NYSE:BK) and Huntington Bancshares (NASDAQ:HBAN).
Analyst meetings and business updates: Electronic Arts (NASDAQ:EA) will host a fireside chat for the investor community with members of its management team on June 22. The impact of some of the games introduced at EA Play Live 2020 will be discussed. Hewlett Packard Enterprises (NYSE:HPE) is launching the first-ever HPE Discover Virtual Experience on June 23 to showcase the company's pivot to an edge-to-cloud platform-as-a-service company. In the transportation sector, Kansas City Southern (NYSE:KSU) is participating in a Q&A webcast with Cowen on June 23. Also on June 23, Dell Technologies (NYSE:DELL) has an investor call with Morgan Stanley scheduled. Meanwhile, Sanofi is holding a virtual R&D day event on June 23. Bristol-Myers Squibb has an investor event covering immunology and cardiovascular on June 26.
Conferences rundown: The timing looks spot on for the Jefferies Virtual Consumer Conference on June 23-24 with the pandemic shifting shopping habits in the U.S. Companies due to present include Hasbro (NASDAQ:HAS), Planet Fitness (NYSE:PLNT), Nu Skin (NYSE:NUS), Freshpet (NYSE:FPT), Murphy USA (NYSE:MUSA), Sysco (NYSE:SYY), Hostess Brands (NASDAQ:TWNK), Shack Shack (NYSE:SHAK) and Jack in the Box (NASDAQ:JACK). In the healthcare sector, the BMO 2020 Prescriptions for Success Healthcare Conference features virtual presentations by Humana (NYSE:HUM), Halozyme (NASDAQ:HALO), Horizon Therapeutics (NASDAQ:HZNP), Apellis Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:APLS), Amgen (NASDAQ:AMGN) and Replimune (NASDAQ:REPL) on June 23. Other conferences of note include the SVB Leerink CybeRx Series CNS Forum, BMO Chemicals & Packaging Conference, Wells Fargo Bricks to Clicks Digital Conference, Goldman Sachs Leveraged Finance Conference and the Morgan Stanley Zero Trust Architectures Virtual Thematic Conference. On the smaller side of the conference schedule, the mining and metals sectors will be in focus, with John Tumazos Very Independent Research virtual meetings set for June 23-24 on Wheaton Precious Metals (NYSE:WPM), Western Copper and Gold (NYSEMKT:WRN), KORE Mining (OTCQB:KOREF), Amarillo Gold (OTCQB:AGCBF), Sierra Metals (NYSEMKT:SMTS), Foran Mining (OTC:FMCXF), Wolfden Resources (OTC:WLFFF), Trilogy Metals (NYSEMKT:TMQ) and Adventus Mining (OTCQX:ADVZF).
Ford F-150: Ford has a digital reveal event for the all-new F-150 set for June 25. The Ford team is expected to describe innovative features of the all-new F-150, including the new electrical architecture, a flat-lying passenger sleeper seat and over-the-air updates to key modules controlling vehicle performance and user experiences. The new truck is seen as a critical part of Ford's plan to slash $5B in warranty costs and push the automaker's vehicle connectivity platform. As a profit generator, the F-150 launch later this year will also help restore the company's balance sheet. The all-new Ford F-150 will be discussed by execs in detail during a June 26 conference call with Citi Research.
Deurbanization trade: Expect more talk from analysts next week about which sectors and stocks could benefit if the mega-trend of people and businesses moving out of downtowns of major cities becomes a reality. Jefferies got the ball rolling last week by singling out Home Depot (NYSE:HD), Lowe's (NYSE:LOW), Best Buy (NYSE:BBY), Floor & Decor (NYSE:FND), At Home (NYSE:HOME), Williams-Sonoma (NYSE:WSM) and Wayfair (NYSE:W) as retailers that could gain from an uptick in suburban living and more spending on houses than metropolitan apartments. One of the bigger pure plays is Tractor Supply (NASDAQ:TSCO), which has racked up a 64% gain over the last 90 days.
RVs: Keep an eye on the RV sector with May shipment numbers due out from the RV Industry Association. Demand is expected to be on the rebound after RV shipments fell 82% in April. Looking ahead, there is a difference in opinion on Wall Street on the outlook for Winnebago (NYSE:WGO), Thor Industries (NYSE:THO), Patrick Industries (NASDAQ:PATK), LCI Industries (NYSE:LCII) and Camping World Holdings (NYSE:CWH). Some firms like SunTrust Robinson Humphrey expect a RV boom as consumers gravitate toward safer vacations, while Bank of America has warned that the high rate of unemployment and salary cuts could keep discretionary spending in check.
Sports betting: Time is running out for the California Assembly to pass legislation on sports betting to move the issue to the November ballot. The bill has to pass through the legislature before June 25 to become an election issue. Why is it a big deal? California is forecast to have the potential for a +$30B sports betting market through sports books placed at tribal casinos, horse racing tracks and satellite wagering facilities. "California could easily become one of the most productive sports-betting markets in the world," observes gaming analyst Chris Grove. Tax revenue from sports betting would also help the Golden State with its budget issues amid the pandemic and economic downturn. Stocks of interest in relations to how sports betting in California plays out include DraftKings (NASDAQ:DKNG), William Hill (OTCPK:WIMHF), MGM Resorts (NYSE:MGM), Caesars Entertainment, Fanduel (DUEL), Red Rock Resorts (NASDAQ:RRR), Boyd Gaming (NYSE:BYD) and Wynn Resorts (NASDAQ:WYNN).
Casinos: The Nevada Gaming Commission is meeting on June 25 to likely approve amendments to state regulations that would streamline the process for moving to modern payment methods. The casino industry in general wants to quickly adopt cashless payment transactions on the casino floor due to the risk of handling cash during the coronavirus outbreak. The casino reset could have implications for Visa (NYSE:V), Mastercard (NYSE:MA) and American Express (NYSE:AXP), as well as financial apps from Apple (AAPL), Google (NASDAQ:GOOGL) (NASDAQ:GOOG) and PayPal (NASDAQ:PYPL). Casino operators like MGM Resorts, Wynn Resorts, Caesars Entertainment and Penn National Gaming (NASDAQ:PENN) would also welcome the change.
What's not playing: Warner Bros.'s (NYSE:T) feature animated film Scoob! will stream on HBO Max on June 26 after running in a premium video on-demand window. The children's picture was first scheduled for theaters on May 15 before opting for a 48-hour rental PVOD period price of U.S. $19.99. While Scoob! didn't make quite the splash that Trolls World Tour did in the spring when it nabbed $100M in digital sales over three weeks, it's another incremental step away from the traditional studio release format for major studios like Sony (NYSE:SNE), Universal Pictures (NASDAQ:CMCSA) and Disney (NYSE:DIS). As for theater chains, auditoriums are likely to operate at 25% to 50% capacity as AMC Entertainment (NYSE:AMC), Cinemark (NYSE:CNK), IMAX (NASDAQ:IMAC), Marcus Entertainment (NYSE:MCS) and Reading International (NASDAQ:RDI) open back up this summer.
Notable annual meetings: Companies with virtual annual meetings set next week include Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings (NASDAQ:OLLI) on June 22, Dave & Buster's Entertainment (NASDAQ:PLAY) on June 23, Keurig Dr Pepper (NYSE:KDP) on June 24, At Home Group and Tailored Brands (NYSE:TLRD) on June 25.
Barron's mentions: The publication digs out four industrial companies whose stocks are called compelling. Midsize manufacturers RBC Bearings (NASDAQ:ROLL) and Wabtec (NYSE:WAB) join large-caps Emerson Electric (NYSE:EMR) and Ametek (NYSE:AME) on the short list of economy recovery picks. Of the four, Wabtec trades with the lowest forward PE ratio at 14.2. Brunswick (NYSE:BC) is also singled out this week as an advantageous product-mix shift and rising boat demand are seen helping to drive shares higher. Most of Brunswick's profit is derived from the high-margin Mercury engine business. The rally in tech names hasn't encapsulated the entire sector. Attractive names still trading at less than 4X sales include Western Digital (NASDAQ:WDC), CACI International (NYSE:CACI), Leidos Holdings (NYSE:LDOS), Seagate Technology (NASDAQ:STX), Amdocs (NASDAQ:DOX), Ciena (NYSE:CIEN), Accenture, MKS Instruments (NASDAQ:MKSI), Intel and F5 Networks (NASDAQ:FFIV). The cover story this week hits on the rising inequality issue in the U.S., noting that it can be a breeding ground for all kinds of concerning things for the market like secular stagnation.
submitted by abiech to Winkerpack [link] [comments]

Why Wakita Kanenori has to be RUM

Disclaimer: The evidence presented in this post was taken from this video (in Chinese). I found them interesting and quite convincing, and decided to translate and share them.

To start, one of the key reasons Wakita Kanenori has to be RUM is that during the episode which he was introduced, he was able to guess exactly which horse Kogoro bet on and won. To give a bit of context, for Japanese horse racing, there are 12 races arranged throughout the day, 7 races in the morning and 5 races in the afternoon. The races that Kogoro bet on was race #11 and #12, which was indicated on the tickets that he purchased. However, the ticket that won him a million yen was from race #7, which means that when Kogoro found this ticket, the race had ended a long time ago. In other words, whoever bought this ticket would know way beforehand that he/she had won a million yen before Kogoro picked them up. First of all, what kind of person would be careless enough to keep such ticket in a place where it could easily fell out? The woman who lost her tickets has shown that people who bet on horse races would keep a very close eye/ear on the result of the race, and when the woman lost her ticket, she immediately headed back to the sushi restaurant to find it. Second of all, there are numerous types of ticket with different odds and many combinations to win a million yen, but how does Wakita know exactly what types of ticket Kogoro had and exactly which horse Kogoro bet on? Everything is pointing to the fact that Wakita already knew how Kogoro was gonna win. And if Wakita is RUM, he has the perfect reason to give Kogoro that ticket, so that he can get close to Kogoro, whom the BO has been keeping an eye on, as well as investigate Bourbon to see if he is a spy. Another point to mention is that spending a couple million yen to buy every ticket for the morning races a very fast way but also very costly way to approach Kogoro. Doing something like from the perspective of RUM is makes even more sense because he is impatient.

Second reason is that Wakita is referred as Edokko, shown in the title of the chapter 975, which reflects his personality and speech. Edokko is regarded as contentious and impatient, which fits Amuro's description of RUM. Wakita also grabs the salaryman's phone right after the call connected, showing his impatient personality. Furthermore, the sushi restaurant that Wakita works at is a Edomae sushi restaurant. Edomae sushi was popularized during the Edo period, to serve the impatient Edo commoners (read the link for more information if interested), matching the "impatience" theme.

He fits all characteristics of RUM, being a strongly built old man, having a damaged eye, and shows feminine characteristics. I think some people might argue about his feminine characteristics; he sure doesn't look feminine but if you look closely to his body movements and gestures, they looks feminine sometimes. For example, how he point at himself, how he patted Amuro's back, how he crossed his arm, etc.

Last but also, in my opinion, the most convincing reason is that Wakita being RUM matches how Aoyama has been introducing BO characters in the past: the person who ended up being the actual enemy is the person who has the least information about Conan. When Jodie, Akai and Araide were introduced, both Jodie and Akai had shown genuine interest in Conan and his deducing ability, but Araide ended up being Vermouth. When Sera, Subaru and Amuro were introduced, Sera and Subaru both showed genuine interest in Conan from the very start, but Amuro was interested in Kogoro first and then gradually discovered Conan's deducing ability. Now, when we go back to Kuroda, Wakasa and Wakita, Kuroda seemed to have realized that Conan and his deducing ability is behind the sleeping Kogoro, Wakasa came to Conan from the very start and has been observing him, but only Wakita approached Kogoro first. To elaborate further, we can safely say that RUM is definitely not a spy, so the information he has is equivalent to the information BO has. Gin has repeatedly expressed his concern about Kogoro, especially when he knows how Kogoro has been trying to investigate Haneda Kohji's case, which means that BO is only concerning about Kogoro and does not have any intel on Conan, so it's more reasonable for RUM to approach Kogoro but not Conan. With this logic, there is a very high chance that Wakita is RUM. To put this in another way, if RUM knows about Conan and the truth behind the sleeping Kogoro, why does he/she not take any action against Conan?

I hope my explanation makes sense :P
submitted by Rizin_Sun_ to OneTruthPrevails [link] [comments]

Ultimate Gambling Guide for GTA Online - odds, probabilities, and optimal strategies

This is not mine, the creator of this is u/enderpiet

Since the Diamond Casino update, I have seen a large number of 12-year-olds posting Blackjack memes on this sub. As a parent, this has me very worried.
On top of that, I have seen some of the most trustworthy GTA Youtubers giving flawed gambling advice, which can have damaging impact on their gullible audiences.
So that's why I decided to write this up, to educate everyone on the subject, so there will be no more misunderstandings.
(2020 Update down at the bottom.)
If you're one of those Youtubers that wants to use this information in a video, feel free to do so. The more people (especially kids) that become educated about gambling, the better.
But then also please go back and review your own work, and delete or edit the videos that are giving out the wrong advice, like where you're saying you have "a good strategy for making money with roulette", or some other nonsense that I've heard this week. Delete that please.
Before I get into the individual games, I need to discuss a few concepts first, that will make understanding the rest a lot easier.
Expected return and variance
A game like Roulette or Slots has a fixed expected return on your bets. This is a percentage that you have no way of influencing. Say you are flipping a coin against a friend, and you both put up $1. The winner gets the pot. Since the odds are even at 50%, in the long run, you will expect to break even. Your expected return is 100% of your bet.
But imagine if you would play this coin flipping game in a casino against the house. On the "house rules" listed at the table they would probably say that you would only get 95 cents back for every win, while you are forfeiting a dollar on every loss. Would you still play?
Sounds stupid to do so, but still, everybody does it. Every bet they place on Roulette, every coin they put into a Slot machine, is based on the same concept.
Those few cents they take on every bet are their profit margin, and has paid for all the Vegas lights, the Mirage volcanoes, and the Bellagio fountains. Make no mistake - casino gambling games are not designed to make you lose, because sure, you can get lucky on a single night, but they are designed to make them win. That's the beauty of it. They can both exist at the same time.
Too many people that don't see how this works, are just destined for disaster. Just because you went on a lucky streak and won 8 games out of 10, does not mean that flipping coins is a profitable game, or that choosing tails is a winning strategy. Always be aware of the house edge, your true chances of winning, and just realize that you got lucky. There is no such thing as a strategy in flipping a coin that will give you a higher expected return, so it's just pure gambling, just like Slots and Roulette.
Most casino games are made in such a way, that your expected return is a little under 100%. This means that from every dollar bet at the tables, the casino expects to keep a few cents. For individual players, results may vary. Some will win, most will lose. But for the house, it doesn't matter. They take millions of bets each day, so for them, the expected average works out a lot sooner. In short: the house always wins.
When looking at the house edge, we're talking about the expected long-term result, based on the game's house rules. But for a player, it can take literally tens of thousands of hands or spins before you also reach this average number. Until that time, you can experience huge upswings and downswings, that are the result of nothing but short-term luck, which is called variance.
Some games and some bets have a much higher variance than others, which means your actual results will differ enormously from what you're expected to be at.
Take for example betting on red/black at the Roulette table. This is a low-variance proposition, because it has a high percentage chance of occurring, and a low payout.
Contrast this with betting single numbers in Roulette, which only win once every 38 spins on average. This bet has a much higher variance, meaning you can easily hit a dry spell, and not hit anything for 200 bets in a row, or you can see a single number hit three times in five consecutive spins. This is not a freak occurrence in high-variance bets.
Even though the expected return in both these bets is exactly the same, there's a huge difference in variance, causing massive differences in short-term results, which can go both ways. You need to be aware of this, before you decide what types of bets you are comfortable with placing.
Gamblers' Fallacy
Another thing to realize, is that each individual game, hand, or spin, is completely independent from the one(s) before it, and after it.
Gamblers tend to believe, that the chance of a certain outcome is increased, based on previous results.
The most famous example comes from the Casino de Monte Carlo, where the Roulette wheel managed to land on black 26 times in a row. Gamblers lost many millions during that streak, all frantically betting on red, believing that the odds were in favor of the wheel coming out on red, after producing so many blacks. This is not true. Each round is completely independent, and the odds are exactly the same.
You will hear people say things like a Blackjack table being "hot" or "cold", which is completely superstitious, and should be ignored. The exception was when Blackjack was being dealt from a shoe. It made card counting possible. But with the introduction of shuffle machines, and continuous shuffling like is being used in GTA, this no longer exists.
This is also why "chasing your losses" is a very bad idea. After being on a losing streak for some time, many gamblers believe that now it's their turn to start winning. So they will often increase their bet size, believing that when their predicted winning streak comes around, they will win back their losses, and more.
The reality of it, more often than not, is that people will indeed start playing higher and higher limits, until they are completely broke. Nobody is ever "due for a win". There is never a guarantee that you're about to start winning. In fact, the opposite is more likely to be true. You are, after all, in a casino.
Betting systems
Some people like to think that they have a fool-proof betting system, like the Martingale system. Simply increase or even double your bet when you lose, and keep doing that until you win. In theory, this system will always win. So that's why table limits were introduced, and where the system fails.
If you start at the Roulette table, playing red/black, with a small 750 chip wager, and just double your bet every time you lose, you only have to lose 6 times in a row, before you will be betting the table limit of 48,000, just to get that 750 chip profit.
Sure, you can go on all evening without this happening, winning 750 chips each time, but this losing streak only has to happen once, and you're bust. Any betting system like this is ill-advised, because you are hugely increasing your so-called "risk of ruin", and that's what we were trying to avoid.
And even if your starting bet is only 100 chips, after only nine straight losses, and nine doubled bets, you are betting the table limit at 50,000 chips. If you lose that bet, you're 100,000 chips in the hole, with no way to recover that with your 100 chip base wager.
So don't believe anyone that says this is the perfect system to always win in the casino. Sooner or later they will understand why they were wrong, when they're asking you for a loan.
Set your limits BEFORE you start playing
One final point before we get into the games, a general tip for people that head out to play: money management.
Just like in real life, before you go to the casino, decide on a maximum amount that you are WILLING TO LOSE.
Bet small enough, so that amount can last you through the entire evening, and you will not be tempted to run to the ATM to continue playing.
Considering GTA money, some people will be comfortable losing 1% of their GTA bank balance, some people will be comfortable with gambling away 5% of their total GTA savings. It's up to you what you can handle. Decide for yourself where it will start to hurt, and don't cross that line.
But whatever number you decide on, as soon as you lost that amount, get up and walk away. Don't chase your losses, stick to your limits, and accept that this has not been your day. There is always another game tomorrow. Always agree with yourself on a simple stop-loss rule, how much you would want to lose at most, and simply stop playing when you get there.
Same goes for winning. You can decide on a number, how much profit you would like to take away from the casino. You can go on a hot streak and be up half a million in a short period of time, but if you would continue to play longer, looking for more, chances are that you're going to lose it all back.
Most people are happy with doubling their daily casino budget, for example. Others are looking for 10 bets profit in Blackjack. Whatever you choose, when you hit that number, you can stop playing and bank your profits, or you can continue playing if you're still enjoying the games, but then only just play minimum bet sizes. Then you're just playing for fun, not for money. You've already made your profit, so simply keep it in your pocket, and don't risk losing it again.
Either way, decide on what your money management strategy will be, and STICK TO IT.
Casino games in GTA Online
Now, I'm going to dive into the games that you can find at the Diamond casino, ordered from worst to best.
6) Slots
Generally the rule is this: the less strategy a game has, the worse it is for the player. And with slots, this is definitely the case.
The only influence you have, is choosing what type of machine you're going to play. Basically, there are two types of slot machines:
-high frequency, low payout slots
-low frequency, high payout slots
In the first type, there is no huge (progressive) jackpot on offer, just your average selection of prizes that don't go up to crazy amounts.
This will result in a player having many more spins resulting in a win. The amounts that you win on the bigger prizes, will be smaller, but they do come around more often. This type of slot machine has a lower variance, which means that your money should last you longer, winning many smaller prizes along the way to keep you going.
The second type of slot machine lures you in with the temptation of a huge jackpot prize. Even though the long-term expected return on these machines is the same as the previous type, the prize distribution is hugely different. The large jackpot prize weighs heavily on the scale of expected return, but the chance of it hitting is extremely small. This results in a much higher variance on this type of machine. Usually your money will go down very fast, because the smaller prizes are less rewarding than on the other type of machine.
At the Diamond, the info screen says the player return at slots is set at 98.7%. This means that, on average, for every maximum bet of 2,500 chips, you expect to lose 32.5 chips.
This might not seem like a lot, but the danger of slots is that the game is extremely fast. You can spin about once every 6 seconds, which would result in an expected LOSS of about 20,000 chips per hour of playing.
But again, in this long-term expected number, the large jackpot awards are also factored in, and as long as you don't hit those big prizes, you'll see your money go down a lot faster.
In any case, thank heavens the max bet is only set at 2,500, or else we would see more players go bankrupt at alarming rates.
Optimal strategy for slots:
There is none. Because after betting, you have no more influence over the outcome. The only choices you have, is what type of machine you want to play at, and how much money you are going to risk. And those are all personal preference. As long as you stick to your loss limits, as discussed above, there's no harm in having a go every once in a while, hoping to get a lucky hit. Just realize that you don't have a high chance of scoring a big win, so as soon as you do, get up and walk away.
5) Roulette
Roulette is also a game where you have no influence over the outcome. There is zero skill involved. You place your bet, and that's it.
In traditional French roulette, a table has only the single-zero, but of course, for American casinos that wasn't enough of a house edge, so they simply doubled their profits by adding a second zero. The house edge was increased from 1/37 to 1/19, which is huge.
This makes playing on a double-zero roulette table by definition a sucker's play.
The payouts scale evenly, which means that a bet on a single number, and a bet on half of the numbers, and everything in between, yields the same expected return. The only difference, again, being the variance that you are willing to subject yourself to.
The player return for double-zero Roulette for all bets is 94.74%.
Except for the 5-number bet, which can only be made by placing a bet on the two top rows that contain 0, 00, 1, 2 and 3. The expected return on this bet is lower: 92.1%. This is because it only pays out 6-1. Why? Well, the number 36 isn't divisible by 5, so the greedy people that came up with double-zero Roulette had to round it off someway, and as expected, it wasn't going to be in the players' favor.Just remember that that 5-number bet is the worst bet at the table, and should be avoided. All other possible bets have the same expected return.
So it really doesn't matter how you spread your bets, if you bet only one chip, or if you litter the entire table with a bucketload of chips. Each chip you put out there, has the same expected return, so there is no strategy that will improve your long-term results.
Assuming that you're betting the maximum table amount of 50,000 chips, you will be looking at an expected loss of about 2,630 chips per spin. Considering that a round takes about 45 seconds to complete, your expected LOSS at the GTA Roulette tables will be around 200,000 chips per hour of playing.
Optimal strategy for double-zero roulette:
Stay away. Stay far away.
4) Three Card Poker
With Three Card Poker, we come across the first game where there is actually some strategy involved. You get to look at your cards, and then decide if you want to fold, and surrender your ante, or double your bet.
Additionally, you can choose to place a side bet on "Pair Plus", which offers progressive payouts.
There are some websites out there that ran all the numbers with computer simulations, and even though I would like to quote the source here, these websites are understandably littered to the max with online casino ads, so that's why I have decided against doing that.
Optimal strategy for Three Card Poker:
For this game you only have to remember one strategy rule: Always bet on any high card queen-six-four or better, and fold any high card queen-six-three or lower. That's it. Just don't forget to double check if you're not folding a straight or a flush, and you'll be fine.
This strategy will result in an expected return of 96.63%.
The Pair Plus sidebet, with the payout table that is used at the Diamond casino, gives you an expected return of 97.68%, which is actually a bit better than the main ante bet.
So by playing both wagers, you're reducing your expected losses per bet, but since you're betting more, you're also increasing your expected loss per hour.
My advice would obviously be to not play this game at all, but if you do, put as much of your bet as possible on the Pair Plus, while making our Ante bet as small as you can.
To be able to compare it to the other games at the Diamond, let's stay on that 50,000 maximum wager, meaning making your ante bet 35,000, and your pair plus bet 15,000, if the table would allow it.
This results in an expected loss of about 1,525 chips per hand, and with a round taking about 45 seconds, this adds up to an expected LOSS of around 120,000 chips per hour of playing. In comparison, if you would only play the ante bet for 50,000 per hand, you expect to lose 1,685 chips per hand, which means an expected LOSS of about 135,000 chips per hour. So the more out of that 50,000 wager you can put on the "Pair Plus" sidebet, the better.
Even though it may be fun to try out this game for a bit, since there's only one simple strategy rule to follow, you'll soon find yourself robotically grinding down your bankroll until it has vaporized. You're not missing out on anything if you skip these tables, there is no real challenge.
Just like with Roulette and Slots, if you want to try it out nonetheless, you can just bet the minimum amounts and only play for fun, so it won't matter if you win or lose.
3) Blackjack
Blackjack is the most complicated game by far. Simply because the player has to make a series of decisions, which will largely decide the outcome. Luckily, there is such a thing as an optimal strategy, which will be outlined below.
However, the strategy is also dependent on the house rules. These not only affect your expected return, but in some places also your decisions.
Here are the house rules at the Diamond casino:
-The game uses 4 standard decks, and a continuous shuffle.
-Blackjack pays 3 to 2, dealer checks for early blackjack.
-No insurance offered, no surrender.
-Dealer stands on soft 17.
-Double down on any two cards.
-Player can split only once, but doubling after split is allowed.
-Seven-Card Charlie.
Under these rules, and following the "basic strategy" chart, your expected return at Blackjack is a shade under 99.6%, which is extremely good for a casino game, that's why Blackjack should be your table game of choice.
But it comes at a price: you are going to have to memorize the relatively complicated strategy chart, or at least stick it to your monitor until you have it in your head. But in case you ever stumble into a real-life casino, you won't regret having this table memorized, so I would definitely advise you to work on that.
The strategy chart might look complicated at first, but you will be able to notice certain patterns. Your decisions are mainly based on the dealer's upcard, which is basically divided into a weak card (2 to 6), and a strong card (7 to ace).
When a dealer shows a strong card, you will be hitting more often with the risk of going bust, but when a dealer shows a weak card, you're not taking that risk, and you will be standing more, but also doubling and splitting more. You want to increase your bets when the odds are in your favor, and get out cheap when they're not.
But it also helps to take some time to think about why a certain advice is given. For example, why does it say that you always have to split two eights, even against an ace. Well, that's because two eights equals 16, which is the worst total you can have. It's better to split them up, and give yourself a chance of finding a 17, 18 or 19 with the next card. Once you see the logic in that, you'll have one less thing to memorize.
The playing advice in the basic strategy chart is a result of computer simulations that ran all possible outcomes against each other, and produced the most profitable decision for each situation. So you can't go wrong following it.
Optimal strategy for Blackjack with Seven-Card Charlie
The added house rule of Seven-Card Charlie, adds a small advantage for the player, and it does influence a few strategy decisions. For example, you might have a 14 with 6 cards, against the dealer's 5 upcard.
Normally this would be an automatic stand, but if you're only one card away from the Seven-Card Charlie, meaning an instant win for the player, regardless of the dealer's hand, it turns it into a hit.
Here's the most optimal strategy chart to follow for the Diamond Casino house rules:https://prnt.sc/olct6g
You'll see that two fives are missing from the chart, and that's because you never split them. You treat them as a regular 10. You also never split tens. Just stand on 20.
If you follow this strategy religiously, even with a maximum wager of 50,000 chips, you only expect to lose about 215 chips per hand, and with rounds taking about 30 seconds, that amounts to an expected LOSS of 26,000 chips per hour, which is only half a bet. A small price to pay for an hour of entertainment.
But since the expected return is so extremely close to 100%, you will see more positive short-term results than with other games. But obviously it can also swing the other way. Again, this is supposed to be the game where your money lasts you the longest, but always set your loss and win limits before you sit down. That rule simply always applies.
Still, even with optimal strategies applied, all these games are expected to lose you money in the long run. So betting any kind of large amounts is not advised. If you simply want to enjoy playing these games, there's nothing wrong with betting a minimal amount. Playing these games for a longer period of time will already cost you money anyway, since your daily property fees will still be charged while you're playing in the GTA casino. As long as you can play for fun, there's nothing wrong, but when you see yourself betting insane chunks of your entire bank balance to try to recoup some unfortunate losses, you're doing it wrong.
As the commercials in Britain all correctly say: when the fun stops, stop.
2) Virtual Horse Racing
Now onto the good stuff. I ran some numbers, and I believe Rockstar has made a mistake with the horse racing game. Because as it stands, and if I read the numbers correctly, this game is actually profitable for the player. You can actually make money with this, at least, until Rockstar figures out their mistake and patches it.
If anyone wants to jump into the math and double check this to make sure, please do so. I will add any corrections to this post. This is one of those "to good to be true" things, so I keep thinking that I might have overlooked something. So please verify it if you can.
The setup is this. There is a pool of 100 horses, each with their own attached payout. These are divided into 3 groups, ranked by their odds. From each group, 2 horses are randomly selected to provide a pool of six runners for you to bet on.
Now it's not an actual race you're looking at. You are looking at a raffle. This is important to realize.
Each horse gets awarded a certain number of raffle tickets. The favorites get awarded more tickets than the underdogs, and therefore, have a higher chance of winning.
If this distribution works like it does in the real-life casinos, then the raffle tickets are awarded according to the betting odds.
Example 1: imagine a race with 3 runners, all have 2/1 odds, representing a 33.3% chance of winning. (Because 2/1 means 2 AGAINST 1, so 3 total.) In this case, each horse gets one third of the raffle tickets, giving them an equal chance to win.
Example 2: imagine a race with 3 runners, one has 1/1 odds (or EVENS), representing a 50% chance of winning, and the other two horses are marked up as 3/1, with a 25% chance of winning. The favorite gets half the tickets, the other two get a quarter of the tickets each.
A ticket is drawn, and you'll have a winner.
It doesn't matter in this game which horse you bet on, because the expected return is always the same: 100% or break-even, for the above examples.
Now, what happens if the percentages don't exactly add up to 100%?
They must add up to 100%, because there will always be a winner. And only one winner.
So when this is the case, the actual winning chances of the horses are adjusted to meet the 100% requirement, using their payout odds to determine the scale.
So, if the represented percentages add up to more than 100%, the actual winning chances of the runners will be DECREASED, resulting in all bets becoming losing propositions for the players.
Example: In a 6-horse race, all runners are listed at 4/1, representing a 20% chance. Only with six runners that amounts to 120%. So all chances are scaled down by 1/6th, to end up at 100%.
This means your horse's chances are reduced from 20% to 16.67%, turning it into a losing bet: 5 times you will lose your bet, and 1 time you will win, but only get 4 bets back in this instance, instead of 5. A losing bet in the long run.
This is the type of odds that you find in regular casinos, with fields as large as 15 runners to bet on, where the assumed winning chances always add up to more than 100%, therefore are decreased for all runners, resulting in a house edge.
But in GTA Online's Inside Track, there are other scenarios, because of the small field, and the way that they are put together.
In some cases, the represented percentages when added up, are LESS than 100%, meaning that the actual winning chances of all runners, are INCREASED.
This creates profitable bets for the players, because in the long run, you're expecting to win more money than you lose. This is a gambler's dream, pure and simple.
So, according to the in-game information, the three groups of horses are divided as follows:
-Favorites: EVENS to 5-1
-Outsiders: 6-1 to 15-1
-Underdogs: 16-1 to 30-1
Let's take the two most extreme examples to show what's happening.
The worst possible field to bet on: two runners at EVENS, two runners at 6-1, and two runners at 16-1.
EVENS represents a 50% chance, 6-1 is 14.29%, and 16-1 is 5.88%. Add those up and you land on a total of 140.34%.
This means that the actual winning chances of the horses are decreased by 28.75% (to get that 140% down to 100%), which makes betting on this field extremely unwise.
A horse at EVENS will only come in as a winner 35.63% of the time, instead of 50%,
a horse at 6-1 will only win 10.18% of the time,
and an underdog at 16-1 will only win 4.19% of the time.
The expected return on a bet on any of the horses in this field is only 71.26%, so a maximum bet of 10,000 chips on any of these horses holds an expected LOSS of 2,875 chips.
These returns are the same, because the winning chances are scaled equally, according to the payout numbers. So it really doesn't matter which horse you bet on, in the long run, you expect the same results.
But as explained before, it does influence variance, and therefore your short-term result, which can swing both ways.
But now, the best possible field to bet on: two runners at 5-1, two runners at 15-1, and two runners at 30-1.
Odds at 5-1 represents a winning chance of 16.67%, 15-1 odds means 6.25% chance, and 30-1 odds means a 3.23% chance of winning. Add these six horses together, and you only get 52.285%.
This means that, to get from 52% to 100%, the actual winning chances of these horses will be almost doubled! Multiplied by 1.91 to be exact.
So the 5-1 favorites will now win 31.88% of the time, instead of 16.67%,
the 15-1 runners will win 11.95% of the time,
and the underdogs at 30-1 odds will still win 6.17% of the time.
When betting on this field, the expected return on your bet is 191.25%!
This means that a max bet of 10,000 chips will result in an expected PROFIT of 9,125 chips.
This is printing money, if there ever was such a thing.
Optimal strategy for Virtual Horse racing
So all you have to do, is only bet high on the games where you have an expected positive return, and bet the absolute minimum on the games where your expected return is negative. Or back out of the racing game to refresh the field.
If you don't have a way to quickly add up all the percentages, and until somebody shows up here with a neatly formatted table, just use a few general rules of thumb:
-Always bet the maximum on a race with favorites at 2/1 and 3/1 or higher in it.
-Simply skip all races with two favorites at EVENS in it, and at EVENS and 2/1. Or bet the minimum, if you can't skip or refresh the field.
-To decide if you should play races with other favorite combinations EVENS and 3/1, EVENS and 4/1, EVENS and 5/1, or two favorites at 2/1, the payouts on the other four runners determine whether or not it's profitable to play them. The results of betting on these fields vary from an expected 1,330 chip loss (worst-case) to an expected 1,680 chip win (best-case), with a max bet of 10,000 chips.
But if you're not looking for another strategy chart, you might just want to skip these borderline cases, and just cherry pick the best ones, which are easy to recognize, and with which you can never go wrong.
It's difficult to put a number on an expected win-rate, because it all depends on which fields you get presented with, but it's not unreasonable to state that you can maintain a steady win-rate of around 200,000 chips per hour, with about 50 seconds per race.
Remember, you're not trying to win every race. You're trying to win the most money per hour. So don't sweat it when you bet on a 4/1 favorite, and lose a couple of races in a row. It will still be more profitable in the long run. You have the math on your side.
To reduce negative variance, always bet on the favorite, when betting on profitable fields. We're not gambling anymore, we're grinding out a steady profit. We want to keep the swings to a minimum.
I contacted Rockstar support to verify if this is indeed how it works, but the only reply I got after 6 weeks is that they were "looking into it".
User u/Garsant made a useful Excel-worksheet, available for you to download, where you can quickly type in the payouts on the horses, to see if it produces a profitable bet or not. You can find it in his post here: https://www.reddit.com/gtaonline/comments/ekp8na/gta_online_inside_track_odd_calculato
1) Wheel of Fortune
The number one profitable casino game in GTA Online is obviously the Wheel of Fortune, because it costs you nothing to play.
Unfortunately, you only get one free spin per day, but it holds great value, so make sure you do it.
With a chance to win a super car, vehicle discounts, expensive mystery prizes (which also can be vehicles), and a lot of cash and chips, the expected return on a single spin is around $100,000 in value.
So don't forget your daily spin, it's definitely worth your time.
2020 Update:
As of the Diamond Casino Heist update, the Inside Track horse racing is confirmed to still be as profitable as outlined above.The only thing that seems to be changed, is that you can't refresh the field anymore by backing out of the screen. This does affect your hourly rate in a negative way, but does not change the fact that this game has a huge positive expected return, and should be your go-to when you're trying to take money from the house, without having Lester's nagging voice in your ear. That should also be worth something.
And with that, I conclude my 5,000 word essay on gambling in GTA. Questions, comments, feel free to add your input to this guide.
Cliffs:
-Gambling games should only be played for fun, not for big money. You should expect to lose in the long run. The house always wins.
-A casino game doesn't have a memory, and betting systems don't work.
-Set your limits before you start, how much you are willing to lose or win, and then walk away when you get there.
-Don't play slots, roulette, or three card poker.
-Only play blackjack following a basic strategy chart (https://prnt.sc/olct6g).
-Inside Track betting can be played profitably, if you only bet on fields WITHOUT a heavy favorite.
-Wheel of Fortune is always your best bet, because it's a free bet.
submitted by sircore to gtaonline [link] [comments]

D100 Incidents a charlatan PC is making amends for

100 things a charlatan PC would be trying to make amends for. This is an idea brought up by a player at my table who wants a sort of "My Name is Earl" redemption story where she finds the person she wronged and tries to make up for it.

d100 Incidents a charlatan PC is making amends for

  1. Leaving an acquaintance to blame for selling fake drugs to a noble [Sleepy_Bandit]
  2. Tampering with a competitor's equipment to cause them to lose a competition so you can win a bet [Sleepy_Bandit]
  3. Stealing candy from a child who has now grown up to become a rage-filled barbarian [Sleepy_Bandit]
  4. Selling fake love potions to a desperate noble who ended up being embarrassed in public [Sleepy_Bandit]
  5. Using a friend's identity for an illegal deal and getting them arrested / questioned by the authorities [Sleepy_Bandit]
  6. Seducing away a minor noble’s daughter while posing as a noble, leaving them both destitute. [Marksman157 ]
  7. bank fraud, resulting in the economic collapse of a village; a few deaths by despair, starvation or incidental robbery involved [LordsOfJoop ]
  8. planting fake evidence of involvement with a string of robberies, resulting in a local noble being exiled for life [LordsOfJoop ]
  9. popularizing a song that portrays a church in a strongly negative light, resulting in a purge from the region [LordsOfJoop ]
  10. selling a crate of shoddy weapons and armor to a local militia, resulting in a humiliating defeat [LordsOfJoop ]
  11. Playing both sides of a minor dispute between nobles that resulted in closed borders between the 2 regions (cold war situation). [always_gamer_hair]
  12. Farting at a very inopportune moment in front of a noble's child. [always_gamer_hair]
  13. Keeping a memento from a battle that should have gone back to the soldier's significant other or child. [always_gamer_hair]
  14. Climbing up a wall with clearly posted "no climbing" signs, causing part of the wall to collapse [always_gamer_hair]
  15. Accidentally melting the ice sculptures at a local ice festival. [always_gamer_hair]
  16. Reselling stolen goods to the wrong merchant. [always_gamer_hair]
  17. Informing the local captain of the guard that their wife is having an affair when, in fact, she is most certainly not. [always_gamer_hair]
  18. Joined a convent for 9 months to hide from debt collectors, then burned the place down in a botched attempt at faking their death. [Vote_for_Knife_Party]
  19. Let a refugee family use their name to get into a safe city, having forgotten that they are a wanted criminal there. The family was detained, brutally interrogated as potential accomplices, and then thrown out. [Vote_for_Knife_Party]
  20. Used a set of vestments stolen from a cleric's wardrobe following a one night stand to sell fake indulgences and de-cursings. Many people were injured, and the cleric has been banished from their temple. [Vote_for_Knife_Party]
  21. Made up a really impressive sounding fake name off the cuff while being arrested which turned out to be a real, very important person. Interpreting the announcement of their arrest as some sort of provocation, a series of insults and slights escalated into an actual border war... in which the character was an active profiteer. [Vote_for_Knife_Party]
  22. Deflowered one of the participants in a critical political marriage the night before the ceremony, derailing a critical peace settlement and destabilizing the entire region for years [Vote_for_Knife_Party]
  23. Participated in a rebellion against an evil overlord, and named names when captured by the guards. [Vote_for_Knife_Party]
  24. Hocked a critical spare part from an irrigation system for beer money, causing a massive crop failure when that part was needed and couldn't be found in time. [Vote_for_Knife_Party]
  25. Engaged in some petty abuse of the local populace while wearing a guard uniform (stolen as part of another petty crime), which provoked a clash between the local peasants and the local law, resulting in many injuries and some deaths. [Vote_for_Knife_Party]
  26. Took a large sum of money to act as a surveyor and just copied a previous surveyor's work, resulting in multiple recently founded villages being destroyed when a dam was built down-river from them. [Vote_for_Knife_Party]
  27. Accidentally started a race war by spouting off about how much better elves are than dwarves...in a dwarf bar [WSHIII]
  28. Accidentally started a three way religious war by claiming Torm was better than Ilmater...in Tyrian temple. [WSHIII]
  29. Accidentally started the Blood War by pissing through a portal into Graz’zt’s throne room...while dressed as a devil for Halloween [WSHIII]
  30. Betting (and losing) a party member on a gamble after already having lost all their money. The winner has ties to the slave trade and is not happy. [Zekaito]
  31. Sold a man a bridge who was subsequently eaten by a very persistent troll. [Wolfenight]
  32. The significant other of a person killed in a fireball mistake turned out to be a renowned and feared bounty hunter. [supersteve320]
  33. Tricking a family member or friend into buying pointless insurance. [Umkynareth]
  34. Tricking a family or friend into investing in a company that never existed. [Umkynareth]
  35. Convincing a friend not to marry by using a loaded die / coin. [Umkynareth]
  36. Upcharging significantly for beewine/mead at a close friend’s wedding. [Umkynareth]
  37. Taking and completing a contract to kill or bankrupt a close relation’s parent, friend or lover. [Umkynareth]
  38. Betting and losing a deed that wasn’t theirs to bet. [Umkynareth]
  39. Stealing a horse. [Umkynareth]
  40. Rewriting their parents’/grandparents’ will to their benefit. [Umkynareth]
  41. Laundering money for a gang / beholder / trading company that then ruined the charlatan’s ancestral lands or city. [Umkynareth]
  42. Convincing a former ally to make a pact with a shady entity at great personal cost in the name of wealth. [Umkynareth]
  43. Extorting, blackmailing or embezzling from an orphanage. [Umkynareth]
  44. Running an orphanage as a front. [Umkynareth]
  45. Skimming/stealing tithes. [Umkynareth]
  46. Hanging on to a memento from a cursed forest / temple, which must be returned lest extremely bad luck continue to befall them. [Umkynareth]
  47. Selling a cursed memento to an acquaintance that granted them exceptionally bad luck. [Umkynareth]
  48. Working with a troll/ogre to collect bridge tolls at great cost to life and limb for others. [Umkynareth]
  49. Contributing to the extinction of a local beast / bird after selling snake oil made from its bits. [Umkynareth]
  50. Conning a respected warrior into buying a weapon the charlatan enchanted to return to his/her position when the command word was spoken. [Umkynareth]
  51. Secretly working with a nothic to learn too much at great cost. [Umkynareth]
  52. Destroying a family’s crops and livelihood with shoddy agricultural remedies to cause their business and lands’ value to decline. [Umkynareth]
  53. Eating that last slice of pie... it was not a good idea... [dermitdog]
  54. Instigating a gang war between two shady (yet wealthy) casinos by cheating and pretending to be from the other casino. [dermitdog]
  55. Sinking the prize ship of a navy while pretending to be a nautical carpenter [dermitdog]
  56. Crashing the lord's masquerade by spilling all of the swindled gold lining your clothes while on the stage, then escaping and therefore discrediting the lord for allowing a vagabond to steal so much money and get away with it leaving the (generous and generally beloved) noble house destitute. [dermitdog]
  57. Selling 'magical' 'snake' oil that, caused a child to die of blood poisoning instead of their terminal (yet curable) illness. [dermitdog]
  58. Reading from the wrong scripture while posing as a preacher, causing a devout acolyte to be executed for heresy after reciting your teachings. [dermitdog]
  59. Lying about your identity to someone while becoming their lover for a scheme. The love was eventually genuine from your side, but the scheme wasn't exactly for the other's benefit. The revelation of your lie has left them heartbroken and angry at you. [dermitdog]
  60. Laundering money so well that it got into wider circulation and put multiple people into prison as they tried to use the money in more rigorous markets. [dermitdog]
  61. Telling someone that you could make them fly, leading to their suicide. [dermitdog]
  62. Selling family heirlooms while posing as a moving company worker, scattering the heritage of a dwindling noble family. [dermitdog]
  63. Leaving your home city abruptly, cutting all ties and never looking back on the people you knew. [dermitdog]
  64. Not stopping a clear case of marital abuse because doing so would blow your cover. [dermitdog]
  65. Stealing the bricks from a historic building and selling them at extortionate prices while replacing them with weaker materials, causing the building to collapse during a busy day. [dermitdog]
  66. Misquoting a holy passage, causing a schism in the church. [dermitdog]
  67. Pressured an accomplice to not seek medical aid for a serious injury, fearing it would result in the detection of a criminal plot, only to wreck the plot themselves by running their mouth in a tavern while drunk. [Vote_for_Knife_Party]
  68. Not wanting to be outdone telling tawdry tales at the inn, the character made up an atrociously lurid fib about their activities with a young princess they had never actually met. A bard heard it, made it into song, and completely ruined her marriage prospects. [Vote_for_Knife_Party]
  69. Sold a map of the city catacombs to what they thought were drug smugglers for 50 gold and a cask of nice wine. The "drug smugglers" were an engineering crew from a rival city, and in a siege 6 months later used the plans to great effect by setting explosives under critical defense structures. [Vote_for_Knife_Party]
  70. Convinced a young accomplice to take the fall for a crime they committed, on the logic that the character would be able to break them out later. Character instead got arrested for partying too hard in the next town over, and jumped a ship out of the country instead of trying to go back for their fall guy. [Vote_for_Knife_Party]
  71. Persuaded several friends to bankroll them for a surefire gambling scheme, based on a plan to use advanced math to calculate the "true" odds of any particular play. Lost everything when they got too drunk to properly carry the "1". [Vote_for_Knife_Party]
  72. While rummaging through a church for things to steal, they found an old bottle of wine, drank it, and put the empty bottle back in it's nook. The bottle was one of the earthly possessions of a man who ascended to a higher plane, and it's consumption was seen as a sign of his return. Several pretenders appeared, triggering a violent schism in the religion. [Vote_for_Knife_Party]
  73. When travelling, they met the last survivor of a pilgrimage, clutching a golden chest in his hands. They were attempting to return a holy relic to a temple, in accordance with an oath sworn by the founder of their order over 150 years ago. With their last breath, they begged the character to deliver the relic in the chest to their destination. The character, headed the other direction, chose to throw the relic in a creek and hock the chest for 10 gold. [Vote_for_Knife_Party]
  74. In a moment of cocky bravado, the character gloated over the fallen body of a dangerous litch, telling them that they were an idiot for not hiding their phylactery better, rattling off several examples. The lich then used a contingency spell to transport themselves and their phylactery away. The phylactery hasn't been seen since, but the lich has been a plague on the land for years... [Vote_for_Knife_Party]
  75. Accidentally fell in with a group of highway robbers and cutthroats, who told the character they were freedom fighters against a corrupt regime. The character found out after a week, but stuck around for a whole month because the "rebel leader" was just too hot. [Vote_for_Knife_Party]
  76. Attempting to get a lover to leave them so as to not feel the guilt of initiating a breakup, the character went too far, gaslighting their SO to the point of actual madness. [Vote_for_Knife_Party]
  77. Sold samples of their own blood to a group they knew to be demon summoning cultists as "virgin blood" (lol, no). They successfully summoned the demon, but completely failed at containing or dismissing it. [Vote_for_Knife_Party]
  78. Got drunk and took a piss in a holy fountain, deconsecrating it. [Vote_for_Knife_Party]
  79. Fiddled around with an elaborate sundial because they were bored, not knowing that it served an important role in timing the local planting cycle and triggering massive crop failure. [Vote_for_Knife_Party]
  80. Agreed to act as a fraudulent guardian for a group of orphans who needed parental consent to join the Army. The "military recruiter" was actually an agent for a slave trader. [Vote_for_Knife_Party]
  81. Hid the body of a dead man in a well, contaminating the only ready source of clean water within 5 miles of a small town. [Vote_for_Knife_Party]
  82. Received a key to the city for services rendered, and then got drunk and lost it. [Vote_for_Knife_Party]
  83. Sold a large pile of colored flour to a church, telling them it was rare medicinal powder. [Vote_for_Knife_Party]
  84. Stole a statue from a town square and sold it for cheap to an art collector. The statue was actually the petrified body of a legendary hero, prophecied to return to life in the time of greatest need, and the "art collector" her ancient nemesis. [Vote_for_Knife_Party]
  85. Yelled "do a flip" at a despondent man standing on a ledge. They did the flip. It was horrible. [Vote_for_Knife_Party]
  86. Spent years convincing an old, half-blind noblewoman that they were their adult grandchild. When the real grandchild came to visit, the guards shot them as an impostor. [Vote_for_Knife_Party]
  87. Knowingly gave a group of pirates a map of the harbor defenses of a city that had banished them for multiple crimes. [Vote_for_Knife_Party]
  88. Blamed a rash of robberies they had committed on an in-city goblin community, giving their enemies a pretense to persecute and exile them, uprooting families that had been living there for generations and turning "Goblintown" from a thriving community to an urban blight. [Vote_for_Knife_Party]
  89. Knowingly sold defective spell components to a group of student wizards, causing them to fail their final exams when the spells misfired. [Vote_for_Knife_Party]
  90. While drunk and in a fighty mood, played "devil's advocate" in an argument with a paladin, turning them Oathbreaker. [Vote_for_Knife_Party]
  91. After being saved from a shipwreck by a merperson, told a group of pirates where to find them in exchange for a fixed fee per fin they cut off. [Vote_for_Knife_Party]
  92. Participated in a scheme to breed and train mimics to act as guard animals and security devices. It worked great for about 72 hours, and then people started getting beaten to death by their own nightstands. [Vote_for_Knife_Party]
  93. Blamed a friendly old healer woman for cursing them, so they wouldn't need to explain certain symptoms of a STI to their significant other. The healer was a druid who was single-handedly responsible for keeping the Fair Folk at bay and placated, and after she was driven away as a witch they moved in on the town. [Vote_for_Knife_Party]
  94. Sold swords with defective heat treating to a local militia, many of which shattered in their hands when they were attempting to defend their town from bandits. [Vote_for_Knife_Party]
  95. Having come down ill before the night of a major party, the character paid a spellcaster to glamor them to hide the symptoms so they could go, carouse and steal. The party was in turn the epicenter of a massive disease outbreak, as many attendees were travelers from afar. [Vote_for_Knife_Party]
  96. Deliberately triggered a trap on the way out of a dungeon to reduce the number of people with whom they would have to share the treasure. [Vote_for_Knife_Party]
  97. Built a fake dungeon, and then spread about it at inns and taverns, so they could ambush the adventurers who came to "save the townsfolk" and take their stuff. [Vote_for_Knife_Party]
  98. Bought a group of slaves on the intention of freeing them... and then changed their mind once they found out how good they were at keeping house and cooking meals. [Vote_for_Knife_Party]
  99. Tuned out during a conversation with a significant other, giving them the "yeah, sure honey, sounds good" treatment when the SO was a young artificer asking for guidance on what ingredients to use, causing a large explosion. [Vote_for_Knife_Party]
  100. Gave someone's name to the Inquisition because they figured it would be easier to rob their house when they were too busy being stabbed with hot irons in a dungeon to do anything about it. [Vote_for_Knife_Party]
submitted by Sleepy_Bandit to d100 [link] [comments]

Top Betting Mistakes

The first step to formulating a solution, is to define the problem.
The following points are areas of betting where many punters often get it wrong. My views arise from long personal experience and years of communication with successful and unsuccessful punters alike.
My aim here is to highlight these common areas of failure in the hope that I can speed up your learning curve towards successful betting.
Read the following thoughts and you may be able to side step many of the pot holes others have fallen into in the past.
1) Failure to Use Betting Banks
Most gamblers fail to understand that the best method of achieving a healthy and sustained long term profit from racing is to set aside a sum of money away from your main finances, solely for the betting of horses. Whatever method or system you are using, whoever you are following or subscribing to or however your own bets are calculated, you are better off with a "Betting Bank" that has built -in advantages that can help you. It needs to be independent from your own personal finances and needs to be protected from factors that can threaten it. This can take a lot of emotion out of the decision making process. Emotion is a factor that threatens all punters. The size of your betting bank will of course be dependent upon your own individual circumstances and free capital available.
An analogy to the world of shares perhaps may be that no financial advisor worth his salt would advise you throw all your capital into the stock market alone. The vast majority of punters fail to use any form of set aside bank. They bet randomly with what ever money they have in their pocket at the end of the week or go in too deep with stakes far in excess of their personal safety levels. A punter with a professional attitude will set aside what he can comfortably afford to invest and then determine the best use he can make of that fixed sum of capital. With a fixed sum of capital available you now move on to the next reason for failure.
2) Failure to Stake Correctly
It is vital that you consider your betting bank as capped in amount. You do not have an endless pool of resources to dip into. Betting by its nature carries inherent risks. These risks include periods of low strike rates and long losing runs. Your betting bank and staking should be adapted for the method you use. You must in advance, prepare yourself for the possibility of a worse than average sequence of losers through adoption of a sufficient number of units in your betting bank. Correct methodical staking in addition to the mathematical advantage, can also help overcome the risk of emotional reaction to a sequence of unusually positive or negative results. Take the Pricewise column in the racing post as an example.
Long term if you could get on at the advised prices, it would have returned a decent profit overall. During this time however followers would have to have endured runs of up to 40 losers in a row! Despite the overall long term profit I suspect the vast majority of Pricewise followers would have been terminated either by a failure to set aside a sufficient amount of points or through failure to cope with the emotion of the losing run. We have long since established here a strike rate of about 35% on our Best Bet selections and at an average S.P. of over 5/2 for each winning bet.
We feel able to protect clients banks as long losing runs haven't happened and the strike rate and odds have been more than enough to ensure long steady and safe growth for your betting profits. That is in essence the key to winning money. Manage your accounts in a way that protects them as far as possible from the element of risk that the game presents you.
3) Chasing Losses
Chasing losses at first sight may appear to be an easy way to guarantee an eventual profit but the true story is it is a game for fools and statistically will not work unless you generate an overall level stakes profit. Chasing losses is a game for the ill informed who do not want to make the effort to seek value in their bets. Bookmakers have to price up every race. Punters don't have to play in every race, they can pick the races they want to bet in,and that is the main edge that people fail to understand.
If you have had a losing day, by attempting to chasing your losses you give up that advantage and bet in the races that you should not be betting in. You are therefore betting the way bookmakers want you to and not in the way to win. Many punters will alter their stakes in the last race either to "chase" losses or "play up" winnings. Its no coincidence that the bookmakers have ensured that the last race on each day is often a handicap or one of the hardest races that day. There will be more racing the next day and the day after that.
The secret is waiting for opportunities and only betting when you know you have circumstances which favour you and not the bookmakers. You must never change your approach, or deviate from sensible staking as there is no such things as "The Last Race".
4) Lack of Value Appreciation
Appreciation of "value" in a bet is core to long term success. To profit over a long series of bets you must be betting at odds greater than the true chance of winning your selection have. To do this however over the long term, you need to concentrate on each race individually and seek the value bet in that race. There is value to be had in every race. The key to it is understanding where that value is. Many times a punter will screw up a losing betting slip and say "At least I had some value".
There is absolutely NO relationship between value and prices. A 33/1 chance may be diabolical value yet a very short priced favorite may be supreme value. It does not follow that the bigger the price you take the better "value" you have. The value is sometimes clear but more often well hidden and it takes a trained eye to see that. Everyone has this "Foresight" on occasions, it is a game about opinions after all and nobody is always right or wrong. Value can be the most expensive word in racing if you can't bet winner. The old cliche is that value is about betting a horse whose true chance is better than its price reflects.
That's only a small part of it. You also have to make sure that you bet in the right way and in the right races as that is the only way you can keep strike rates high and protect a betting bank. You should continually strive to increase value in your bets. Once you have a selection you feel is value do not just take the first acceptable price that comes along. Seek to improve it by shopping around the various bookmakers or try and top the best bookmakers price by looking to the betting exchanges. Marginal improvements on odds on each bet you make can have a dramatic effect on long term profits.
5) Greed For Instant Wealth
Many punters seek the thrill of a life changing bet that will produce huge gains of instant wealth for a small outlay. Bookmakers play on your natural desire and go out of their way to encourage you to bet exotic multiple selection bets that can in one hit, turn a small stake into a large sum. Professionals however rarely bet in multiples. Most professionals bet singles and steer away from the multiple bets. Bookmakers relentlessly promote a host of multiple bets with exotic names such as Yankee, Lucky 15, and Goliath.
The reason they are heavily touted is the profit margin in the bookmaker's favour increases the more selections you add to your multiple bet. Say you select any random 5/1 selection. If you bet this as a single the bookmaker may have a theoretical edge in his favor of 15%. Taking two such selections however and betting them in a win double, the bookmakers profit margin rises to about 30% ! Yes your win double can produce a much bigger win from the same stake however over the long term the bookmaker is eating away at your capital at a much faster rate.
It is a waste of time debating which type of multiple bet is 'best'. Unless your prediction skills are supernatural or you are incredibly lucky, then betting in singles is more often the best option. You may say that many "Pros," do bet in multiples in bets like The Scoop 6 or the Jackpot, but that's only because they know there is plenty of "Dead" money in any given Pool and they are betting against people who don't understand the dynamics of those types of bet. There are times you should bet in multiples but in truth they are few and far between.
You can't approach this as a "Get Rich Quick " scheme. It is a long slow process of serious and sustained profit and not a game for Get Rich Quick schemers. If you go Into any Betting shop, have a look at all the posters on the wall offering "special offers", "enhanced terms " and "bonus offers". You will see they are all multiple bets. Bookmakers want you betting in multiples and it is easy to see why. They carve most profit from them. You never see a Bookmakers promotion offering extra's on a win or each way single. Ask yourself why.
6) Lack of Discipline
Lack of Discipline is the big hurdle for punters trying to turn a losing hobby into a winning one. Bookmakers know that. That's why in every betting office you can bet on numbers, lotteries, ball games, racing from all over the globe with horses nobody has heard of before and even now computer animated, or as they call it, virtual racing. Bookmakers just believe that its a case of punters sitting all day betting on what ever is put in front of them and sadly they are right in many cases. They are simply thrill seeking and don't care what they bet on, as long as they can bet.
There is no methodology at all and many betting office regulars are simply a bunch of headless chickens prepared to pay long term for the warming buzz of the occasional win. Even more experienced regular gamblers who are savvy enough to turn down bets that they know are stupid always let themselves down by continually bleeding their profits with a fun tenner here and a fun tenner there. It takes great discipline to NOT bet at times. It takes discipline to walk away from a horse when the price isn't right. It takes discipline to say no to that small fun bet.
It takes discipline to keep your money in your pocket and deny yourself the emotional buzz of watching your runner. Punters come in all shapes and sizes. Even the shrewder punters who could win at the game, fall into the trap of lack of discipline of study. After a winning period they forget that what made them winners in the first place, was the effort they put in. They fall victim to over confidence, laziness and indiscipline. Being a long term successful punter is like swimming against the tide. It takes an effort to stay still, even greater effort to move ahead and as soon as you relax or slack off you start to go backwards.
7) Emotion
Betting is a lonely game. Its also a highly skilled game. Emotion undermines success in many ways. There is comfort in knowing that as a sheep when you are wrong it is not your fault as you were simply doing what everyone else was doing. With betting, the laws of market supply and demand, dictate that long term, the sheep will get fleeced. Emotion neutralises discipline and long proven successful practices. The result of any isolated race has little or no relation to races just before that or just after that. Races should be viewed in isolation from each other. We are all emotional in betting but the players at the top of the tree have this down to a fine art and can control those emotions.
Other punters have long since been conditioned by bookmakers to EXPECT to lose rather than win. They have an in built psychological factor that makes them feel like losers and they have been conditioned to losing by years of doing so. Over 95% of punters are flawed emotionally. Examples of emotive gambling include punters following a horse,trainer or a jockey blind. The "Hype" horses are cannon fodder for emotional punters. They may also follow tipsters blind as they "hate" the thought of missing out on a winner. They pay no attention to the changing conditions of a race that may follow non runners or the ground changing. They misunderstand confidence and can't cope with a lack of confidence.
Emotion also prevents people from advanced betting subjects such laying, hedging and arbitrages. Emotion forces some punters to bet horses with certain names that remind them of loved ones. Names such as "Long Tall Sally " and "Susan's Pride " attract many to them just for a name that's relevant to them. Most punters have a grudge against their own money and winning and being successful is alien to them. Emotional punters lose their heads in barren times and fail to capitalise on winning runs. They mess about with systems and staking plans that make no sense.
The more emotion you can rule out of your betting, the more successful you will become. You have to view everyone in the game as your enemy and as people trying to take your hard earned money away from you in the same way as you would a pickpocket. Once you can master your emotions you have made the first big step to betting profitably.
submitted by PresentType to canlbahisoynainfomro [link] [comments]

Matched Betting and Covid-19

Disclaimer: This is just a post addressing some comments I've had through my sites' Live Chat that came from reddit (not bad ones by the way, just questions :) ). I will be mentioning my site, so a portion of this post will be self-promotion (however, I do not think it is a particularly egregious example). But if this puts you off, sorry to waste your click and stay safe :)

It goes without saying but the last month or so has been hugely disruptive. Obviously there are far more important things in the world than matched betting at the moment, but even so I wanted to quickly address the idea that matched betting is completely dead.


So is Matched Betting dead?
No, not even slightly!
Yes, the limited sports makes things tricky but there are still plenty of ways to earn using matched betting and it's principles.


Horse Racing still on!
While the UK horse racing scene is currently on pause, the same can not be said for a lot of other regions (particularly the US). As a result, whilst the number of races is drastically reduced, you can still get Horse racing bets down. Meaning, you can still tackle sign up offers.
Top tip for tackling Horse racing at the moment is to not sink too much time into looking for odds on races that are more than 30 minutes from the off. Money and odds movement only seems to start when there is under 30 minutes to go.
In addition, darts is still going strong, along with (rather amazingly) the Belarus football league. In addition there is also e-sports (which is included on our Oddsmatching Software)


Try Casino. It is not as scary as you think!!
Historically my site (Heads&Heads) has not really focused on the world of Casino. However, in recent weeks we've made a huge effort to drastically increase the number of casino offers on our site.
In fact, in less than 5 days, we have quadrupled the number of Casino offers available to Premium members. All of these have strong EV (expected value) and are (on average) considered low risk offers. In addition, there are also plenty of completely risk free casino offers that have been added. So, if you are completely risk adverse there is plenty to do.
We are already seeing projected average profits of £450 per month from Casino alone for members who are giving it a go. That is money that I think everyone would be happy to have at the moment.
Please note, that Casino is not for everyone. It is a departure from the completely risk free world of sports matched betting. So, if you are in any way concerned your disposition would not suit this and lead to darker things - stay well clear.


Running a discount that reflects the reduction in overall profit.
Heads&Heads, like most companies has been hit pretty hard by the Corona virus. However, I do not expect anyone here to actually care (and honestly, nor should you). We are all here to make some money.
So, to that end, for the duration of disruption caused by Covid-19, Heads&Heads will continue to run a £1 for 30 days (or £90 for 365 days) Premium discount code.
We've run this in the past, however, with the dramatic increase in Casino offer guides - this discount now holds significantly more value. Details below:

Link: https://headsandheads.co.uk/sign-up?discount=STAYHOME

Click the above link to get your discount or manually enter Discount Code 'STAYHOME" for the 30 day or 365 Day discount on the Payment Page.

Best of luck and stay safe
submitted by HeadsandHeads to MatchedBettingUK [link] [comments]

Matched Betting and Covid-19

Disclaimer: This is just a post addressing some comments I've had through my sites' Live Chat that came from reddit (not bad ones by the way, just questions :) ). I will be mentioning my site, so a portion of this post will be self-promotion (however, I do not think it is a particularly egregious example). But if this puts you off, sorry to waste your click and stay safe :)

It goes without saying but the last month or so has been hugely disruptive. Obviously there are far more important things in the world than matched betting at the moment, but even so I wanted to quickly address the idea that matched betting is completely dead.


So is Matched Betting dead?
No, not even slightly!
Yes, the limited sports makes things tricky but there are still plenty of ways to earn using matched betting and it's principles.


Horse Racing still on!
While the UK horse racing scene is currently on pause, the same can not be said for a lot of other regions (particularly the US). As a result, whilst the number of races is drastically reduced, you can still get Horse racing bets down. Meaning, you can still tackle sign up offers.
Top tip for tackling Horse racing at the moment is to not sink too much time into looking for odds on races that are more than 30 minutes from the off. Money and odds movement only seems to start when there is under 30 minutes to go.
In addition, darts is still going strong, along with (rather amazingly) the Belarus football league. In addition there is also e-sports (which is included on our Oddsmatching Software)


Try Casino. It is not as scary as you think!!
Historically my site (Heads&Heads) has not really focused on the world of Casino. However, in recent weeks we've made a huge effort to drastically increase the number of casino offers on our site.
In fact, in less than 5 days, we have quadrupled the number of Casino offers available to Premium members. All of these have strong EV (expected value) and are (on average) considered low risk offers. In addition, there are also plenty of completely risk free casino offers that have been added. So, if you are completely risk adverse there is plenty to do.
We are already seeing projected average profits of £450 per month from Casino alone for members who are giving it a go. That is money that I think everyone would be happy to have at the moment.
Please note, that Casino is not for everyone. It is a departure from the completely risk free world of sports matched betting. So, if you are in any way concerned your disposition would not suit this and lead to darker things - stay well clear.


Running a discount that reflects the reduction in overall profit.
Heads&Heads, like most companies has been hit pretty hard by the Corona virus. However, I do not expect anyone here to actually care (and honestly, nor should you). We are all here to make some money.
So, to that end, for the duration of disruption caused by Covid-19, Heads&Heads will continue to run a £1 for 30 days (or £90 for 365 days) Premium discount code.
We've run this in the past, however, with the dramatic increase in Casino offer guides - this discount now holds significantly more value. Details below:

Link: https://headsandheads.co.uk/sign-up?discount=STAYHOME

Click the above link to get your discount or manually enter Discount Code 'STAYHOME" for the 30 day or 365 Day discount on the Payment Page.

Best of luck and stay safe
submitted by HeadsandHeads to matchedbetting [link] [comments]

Matched Betting and Covid-19

Disclaimer: This is just a post addressing some comments I've had through my sites' Live Chat that came from reddit (not bad ones by the way, just questions :) ). I will be mentioning my site, so a portion of this post will be self-promotion (however, I do not think it is a particularly egregious example). But if this puts you off, sorry to waste your click and stay safe :)

It goes without saying but the last month or so has been hugely disruptive. Obviously there are far more important things in the world than matched betting at the moment, but even so I wanted to quickly address the idea that matched betting is completely dead.
So is Matched Betting dead?
No, not even slightly!
Yes, the limited sports makes things tricky but there are still plenty of ways to earn using matched betting and it's principles.

Horse Racing still on!
While the UK horse racing scene is currently on pause, the same can not be said for a lot of other regions (particularly the US). As a result, whilst the number of races is drastically reduced, you can still get Horse racing bets down. Meaning, you can still tackle sign up offers.
Top tip for tackling Horse racing at the moment is to not sink too much time into looking for odds on races that are more than 30 minutes from the off. Money and odds movement only seems to start when there is under 30 minutes to go.
In addition, darts is still going strong, along with (rather amazingly) the Belarus football league. In addition there is also e-sports (which is included on our Oddsmatching Software)

Try Casino. It is not as scary as you think!!
Historically my site (Heads&Heads) has not really focused on the world of Casino. However, in recent weeks we've made a huge effort to drastically increase the number of casino offers on our site.
In fact, in less than 5 days, we have quadrupled the number of Casino offers available to Premium members. All of these have strong EV (expected value) and are (on average) considered low risk offers. In addition, there are also plenty of completely risk free casino offers that have been added. So, if you are completely risk adverse there is plenty to do.
We are already seeing projected average profits of £450 per month from Casino alone for members who are giving it a go. That is money that I think everyone would be happy to have at the moment.
Please note, that Casino is not for everyone. It is a departure from the completely risk free world of sports matched betting. So, if you are in any way concerned your disposition would not suit this and lead to darker things - stay well clear.

Running a discount that reflects the reduction in overall profit.
Heads&Heads, like most companies has been hit pretty hard by the Corona virus. However, I do not expect anyone here to actually care (and honestly, nor should you). We are all here to make some money.
So, to that end, for the duration of disruption caused by Covid-19, Heads&Heads will continue to run a £1 for 30 days (or £90 for 365 days) Premium discount code.
We've run this in the past, however, with the dramatic increase in Casino offer guides - this discount now holds significantly more value. Details below:

Link: https://headsandheads.co.uk/sign-up?discount=STAYHOME

Click the above link to get your discount or manually enter Discount Code 'STAYHOME" for the 30 day or 365 Day discount on the Payment Page.

Best of luck and stay safe
submitted by HeadsandHeads to beermoneyuk [link] [comments]

Clarkson's Columns: Vin Diesel is the Face of Jesus & My Trees are Under Attack from Bambi

With a screech of tyres, Vin Diesel speeds towards the role he was reborn to play: the son of God
By Jeremy Clarkson (Sunday Times, July 5)
Incredible news from the pulpit. The Most Rev Justin Welby, oil man, Archbishop of Canterbury and leader of the entire Anglican church, has announced — and you may need to sit down for this — that the baby Jesus may not have been white. He says that if you tour the world's churches, you see Jesus depicted in lots of different ways. He's black. He's pink. He's short. He's tall. Apparently, in the South Pacific, he looks like Jonah Lomu. But, says Welby, it's probable that he actually had a Middle Eastern appearance.
That will come as a huge shock to people in the southern states of America, where most people believe he has a very long tie, an orange face and some nylon growing out of his head.
It came as a fairly big shock to me as well, because I always thought Jesus had blue eyes, long hair, a beard and some kind of kaftan. Basically, he looked like the lead guitarist in every mid-Seventies rock band. This is probably because that's the look Robert Powell chose when he took the lead in Franco Zeffirelli's 1977 smash Jesus of Nazareth.
Since 1912, nearly 60 actors have played Jesus in films. And in recent times most of them seem to have channelled their inner Paul Rodgers before pulling on the thorny crown and the sandals. Except for the Swedish actor Max von Sydow, who looked like a Volvo chassis engineer with a towel on his head.
Ewan McGregor, Liam Neeson, Brian Deacon and Willem Dafoe all went down the rock-star route. And then came Christian Bale. You'd expect something more from this master of versatility — that he'd burst onto the screen looking and sounding like Larry Grayson, or Jacob Rees-Mogg. But, no, he decided to play the role as John Entwistle of the Who.
All of this means that for more than a hundred years it's been drilled into the world that Jesus was definitely white. Which is probably why, when they discovered the Turin shroud, no one thought to say: "Wait a minute. That face. It can't be real, because it looks like it's from a Bad Company album cover." Of course it looked like that. It was Jesus, and that's what Jesus looked like. We were all certain of this.
Occasionally a director would decide to cast a non-white person, and once, in a film called Killing Jesus, the lead went to a chap called Haaz Sleiman, who's Lebanese, of all things. And, it later turned out, gay. This, people will say, was madness, giving the part of Jesus — a single man from Nazareth — to a single man from Beirut.
Apparently, this weekend, the altarpiece at St Albans Cathedral is being replaced by a high-resolution print of a rainbow-nation Last Supper, in which Jesus has the facial features of a Jamaican model called Tafari Hinds.
I don't doubt that this will cause quite a stink among all those Brexitty old ladies in the congregation who've only just got over the gay Lebanese chap, but the fact is this. If you're prepared to believe that the son of your God could walk on water and turn fish into loaves and bring people back from the dead, then it must be possible to believe he had dark skin.
Actually, I'll go further. If you believe his mum was a virgin when she became pregnant, then you should be able to believe it if I say he looked like one of those laughing robots from the Smash commercials.
Can you imagine the furore if we could go back in time and work out what Jesus really looked like? You'd hope and pray that he had a strong resemblance to Omar Sharif or Cat Stevens. But it's possible he was a dead ringer for Saddam Hussein, and that would be like finding out that Shakespeare had a Birmingham accent or that Stonehenge was an early-days public lavatory or that Florence Nightingale was a screaming racist. Sometimes, history is best left under lock and key.
A novelist, for example, suggested in his bestselling Da Vinci book that Jesus had fathered a child, and as a direct result of that it's now emerged that the author ended up with four lovers and bought one a horse with money that should have gone to his ex-wife. I bet he wishes now he'd left the Jesus story well alone.
The church, however, cannot leave the Jesus story alone. The spotlight of social media is shining in his face, and we're all waiting for guidance on what we are seeing. That's what Welby must now do: come up with a global face for Christianity. A sort of Ronald McDonald for the church.
All the successful corporations, such as Coca-Cola and Apple and Rolls-Royce, have an instantly recognisable brand look, and the Anglican church needs one too. It's a man on a cross, for sure, but what does his face look like? That's the million-dollar question.
Happily, though, I have an answer. I know exactly who Jesus should look like on every cross and in every stained-glass window and in every painting in every church in every corner of the world. He should look like Vin Diesel.
Mr Diesel is perfect because he's racially un-pigeonholeable. He's definitely white but he's also definitely black, definitely Asian and definitely Hispanic. Could he be a Nazarene as well? It's possible, for sure. So he is what you want him to be, which means everyone will be happy.
But there's more to it than that. He says his mother was English, German and Scottish, and had a knowledge of the stars. He also says, intriguingly, that he doesn't know who his father was.
Joseph? He won't say. He won't say anything about his private life, but then you wouldn't if you'd risen from the dead and then disappeared for 2,000 years.
We are told his real name is Mark Sinclair, but that may be a ruse. It could be Jesus. And I think that, from now on, it should be, because imagine how good that would look in the credits of Fast & Furious 10.
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My trees are under attack: Huge tractors have just removed 200 tons of timber. But the real threat to my forest is Bambi and his pals Hare and Squirrel
By Jeremy Clarkson (Sunday Times, July 5)
I'm not quite sure how I've managed this, but somehow I have reached the age of 60 without absorbing a single piece of information about trees. Literally nothing. I know more about Jane Austen, and all I know about her is that her Christian name is Jane, her surname is Austen and she wrote about a liberated young woman called Emmanuelle.
I must, occasionally, have been on a walk where someone started to talk about the trees we were seeing, but I guess I must have a filter in my head that turns tree talk into an eerie silence. I therefore cannot tell an oak from an ash or a spruce from a larch. They're all just green and brown and covered in bark. I only know what a Christmas tree is when it's covered in tinsel.
However, there are a hundred acres of woodland on my farm, and in the past nine months, since I decided to do farming for a living, I've had to try to learn something about how they work. This is tricky, because when I go into the gloom with a man who has no fingers — everyone in forestry has no fingers — he only ever gets to "You see the thing about an oak is…" and the filter kicks in so after that I hear nothing at all. I had the same problem at school in chemistry lessons."Your lips move but I can't hear what you're saying."
Despite all this, I have learnt some things. First, it is impossible for a tree to survive without man's help. If you plant one and then leave it alone, it will be eaten by a deer or a hare within a week.
To get round this, you must surround its spindly little trunk with a piece of plastic tubing that's designed to split when, after about ten hundred years, the trunk is wide enough to withstand attacks from Bambi and his overgrown rabbity mates.
At this point the grey squirrel will arrive and remove all of the bark to a height of about 2ft. This means the tree will become infected with something and die. Or it will grow more slowly than the other trees around it, which means it will be deprived of sunlight and die.
Eventually, and I genuinely don't know how it's possible, a few trees will grow to become big and strong, but this takes such a long time, you and your children will not live long enough to reap the rewards.
To get round this, I recently planted 20 trees — I don't know what they are; they're all brown and green — that were already 25ft high. Each one cost more than most hatchbacks. They arrived on a fleet of articulated lorries, with their roots encased in sacks, and were lowered into holes that had been made by a 21-ton digger. This was wilding, with extra diesel. And now it is my job to look after them.
It is a big responsibility. Twice a week I must pour exactly 25 litres of water into the roots of each tree via a tube that sticks out of the ground like an exhaust pipe. And another 25 litres around the trunk.
As there is no liquid refreshment in the field, it means I must first fill a tanker with a thousand litres of water and then spend two hours measuring it out and delivering it to precisely the right places. If I do not do this properly, the trees will die. So I am doing it properly. And, from what I can tell, the trees are dying.
This may or may not have something to do with a vast range of diseases that a tree can and will get.And the problem is going to get worse, because in the run-up to the last election, each of the main parties, and the Lib Dems, was promising vast tree-planting programmes in an effort to shut up Greta Thunberg.
We ended up with the Tories, who had said they would plant 30 million trees a year by 2025. That's 82,000 a day. Leaving aside the issue of who exactly would do all the planting, now we have left the EU, there's the bigger question of where they are going to find 30 million trees a year.
Abroad, is the obvious answer. But when you import a tree, it will arrive with bugs and fungi against which the native trees have no immunity. Dutch elm disease came from Canada. Ash dieback came from mainland Europe. So, to fulfil a political promise, we import one diseased tree from Finland and end up killing, according to recent estimates, 72 million trees that are already here.
There's another problem too. We will not be creating these 30 million trees. We will simply be moving them from their place of birth to Britain, where almost all of them will be killed by rabbits, deer, squirrels, disease, the growth ambitions of other trees… or me.
One of the things you learn when you become a countryman is that all real countrymen say the same thing when they walk into a wood. "Hmm," they chunter. "This needs thinning."That's what my keeper said to me. It's what my tractor driver and land agent said too.
So, in a single week I took 200 tons of timber from a 10-acre slab of woodland, and when I posted a picture on Instagram of the gigantic John Deere machine that I'd used, every single teenage girl who follows me — all four of them — came back with a stream of venom and anguish. I was worse than McDonald's. I was ruining their future and choking their grandparents. I was doing deforestation, and that's worse than racism.
Incredibly, however, it's almost impossible to tell that any trees have been felled at all. The only difference is that now the forest floor is aglow with puddles of sunlight, which will stimulate all sorts of new growth.
In the past I've walked through that wood and it was ever such a dark and gloomy place. They could have filmed The Blair Witch Project in there. They probably did. But now there's new growth of nettles here and there, and for the first time in probably 20 years you occasionally trip over a hoop of bramble. By killing a bunch of trees, then, I've brought the wood back to life.
That's good for Bambi and the hares. It's good for the squirrels. It's good for the 250,000 bees I've just put in there, and it's good for all sorts of small flowers about which I know even less than I do about trees. It's also, according to my keeper, good for my shoot.
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And here's the Sun column: "I’m 60 and falling apart…but at least my mind is still racing"
submitted by _Revelator_ to thegrandtour [link] [comments]

A Canadian Tale ch3

previously ch2
Hitchhiking back to Canada took longer than I thought it would. I had to try to walk. But at least, as a ghost, I no longer required food or sleep.
I also was not cold, warm, or even physically tired, but boy was I board. I walked along the highway, making my way through the desert. After a little trial and error, I found that I could hitch a ride on any car parked long enough for me to form a connection. This resulted in me being stuck in a trunk for a few hours; California to Idaho, Idaho to Montana.
I hung around Yellowstone National Park, searching all of the tourists from all over the country (and the world.) It didn't take me long to find a family heading to Saskatchewan.
I found a mini-van, anyway. The white Toyota had Canadian plates so I knew it would at least get me across the border. But clearly, the family was staying at the local hotel. In the car, there were books and DVDs, even a few coloring books and dolls; the junk pile of happy children. "I bet all the good stuff's in the hotel room." Ipad, Nintendo DS, and other things I never had as a kid.
Reclining my spectral form, across the backseat, I made myself comfortable, staring up at the ceiling. There was an elaborate display of glow in the dark star stickers, creating a whole separate world within the confines of the family vehicle. For the children, I'm sure it was a means of keeping quiet, focused, and maybe even relaxed on long road trips. But to me, the stars symbolized hope.
No matter how many times a soul is reborn, we will always find comfort and wisdom in looking at the stars. I stared transfixed until the light of the morning ushered in the screams of children.
"I don't wanna go!"
"I'm tired!"
"I'm hungry!"
"I don't wanna go in the car seat!"
I watched as the two small children were strapped into their car seats while an older teenage boy sat in the row in front. "What do you want to watch?" he grumbled before selecting the first DVD in the pile. It was 'Moana,' the cartoon about the Maori princess. I always liked that one, it seemed to be the best Disney would ever get to a First Nation princess. I guess that was why I needed to be the hero of my own life.
Hours later, we arrived in Regina. I heard from the parents that they were almost home, so I made sure to make my exit when the vehicle stopped at a gas station.
I was in Canada, I was home. Now, how the hell was I going to find Randell Fish? If this was a movie from the eighties I'd head to the nearest phone booth, and start flipping through the massive directory book. But since this was the age of the internet I would need to try my luck with a public computer. Looking around for signage, I could see there was a library not too far from where I was.
It was not to difficult to find, even as the sun went down. I phased through the doors of the closed library, like a typical ghost. "What was I made of?" I stroked the security sensor by the door to see if my presence would set off any alarms. Nothing, oh well.
I approached a counter, which housed a typical desktop PC. I reached my hand to the power button, with thoughts of Randell Fish. Where did he live? Where did he work? Where did he sleep? I could picture everything I wanted to do to him; make him live through every painful moment. Maybe I could possess a knife or even reach my ghostly hand inside of his body cavity and rip out his organs piece by piece. I felt a rush of energy and then a loud explosion. BANG! "Oh fuck."
Judging by the sparks and smoke, I appeared to have blown up the machine using only my rage. Lesson learned: I needed to maintain better control. "Moving to the next computer."
I could feel a steady flow of electric power, wash over me, as I pushed the start button on the PC tower. "Think happy thoughts, think happy thoughts," I said out loud, attempting to find a happy thought to focus on. "Happiness, joy, love, um... childhood?" What did I like about my childhood? "School..." Without touching the keyboard I managed to turn on the screen and navigate to Facebook. How common of a name was Fish?
"Search, Fish, Saskatchewan," I said out loud. The computer filled in the request bar to my will. And then I remembered; Randell Fish was the father of a former judge, the very judge who sent my uncle to jail. Could I focus on that? "Search deceased Canadian judges with the last name 'Fish.'"
Google returned an answer: Judge Sophia Rosalinda Fish- Ryder. Apparently, Randell Fish had lost a daughter and a very successful one at that. Her memorial page was covered in graduation pictures; high school, college, various awards, law school, and of course getting sworn in as a judge. Her husband and children were by her side; she had a family, Randell Fish's family. Jordan Fish-Ryder, a Sophomore at a boarding school in Boston, and little Tanya.
Tanya was only nine years old and still went to school in-state. Part of me wondered if she went to the same school as I did, but of course not. She went to a posh K-8 private school, in the most beautiful part of Northern Canada. I would find her and I would follow her home. "Power down," I said out loud as I moved my hand backward.
Under the light of the moon, I took a walk. The world seemed to be frozen over, like an arctic wasteland. I had no idea if I was even going the right way. By the light of the moon, I could hear the wind, but it sounded odd. Instead of a soft whisper, it was like a chorus of voices.
"You really think you can do this, little girl?"
"She's young, of course, she does."
The mocking was followed by laughter, so much laughter.
"What's your problem!" I shouted at the starry night sky.
"You actually think you can find peace?" Asked one star, pulsating in the sky.
"I'm looking for justice," I replied.
"Justice?" That got a lot more laughter.
"Screw you all! I can do this all on my own!"
Suddenly a single beam of light seemed to cut across the sky like a shooting star. "Come on, ladies, we're better than this." The voice was American.
"Thanks," I said, wiping tears from my eyes. "I'm Tia what's your name?" I wondered if she was one of the victims of the Highway of Tears (a place infamous for its history of missing women of various ages and nationalities.)
The sky went dark as the shooting star launched itself straight at a lamppost. The lamp seemed to shimmer for a moment before going dark again.
I was actually a little scared when suddenly, a girl stepped out from the shadows. "Hi, I'm Vena." In her ghost form, Vena was small like me, but she wore a recognizable military uniform. Her camo fatigues were covered in dust. Yet her black hair, pulled back in a military-approved bun highlighted her sweet smile. Vena held out her hand, leaning forward with a slight bow. "Where are you headed?"
I had been frozen in place, but hearing her kind, friendly voice allowed me to fully relax. "Up north, to St. Unity prep school."
"I can walk with you for a while, maybe show you the way."
"Thanks," I said, finally shaking her hand. "I'd like that. It's been a while since I had a friend."
"Same here."
We walked like childhood friends, jumping, skipping, with the occasional cartwheel. "So where are you from, Vena?"
"Missouri," Vena said as she pretended to walk along the sidewalk ledge like a balance beam, ending with a backflip.
"Wow, so you're from around St. Louis?" I asked, feeling happier than I had in a while.
"St. Louis county."
"That's the place with the arch, right? That must have been so cool!"
"Yeah, I guess but after seeing it all your life it just looks like any other tourist trap." Vena made a small jump on to a new ledge. "Probably why I died where I did."
"You died in combat?" That seemed to be the logical answer. She looked seventeen, maybe eighteen-years-old. It was not out of the realm of possibility for her to have gotten deployed immediately after basic training.
"Sorta," she said with a shrug. "I was at odds with a very powerful man in my chain of command. I stood my ground, fought with everything I had but in the end I lost."
"You lost?"
"I was murdered." Vena took a calming breath. Clearly, she was able to control her ghost-energy better then I was. "It was a while ago." She started to skip and even did a spin on one foot. "The army covered up everything. They told my family it was a suicide." Vena's body rippled with energy.
"I'm so sorry." I reached for her hand, hoping to siphon away some of the negative energy.
"They told my poor father, that somehow I put an AK-47 in my mouth. And I did this while naked during the one time of day my roommates would not be in." Vena took my hand and we both sat for a moment. "They shipped my body home with gloves glued to my hands, so no autopsy could be done to prove or disprove gunshot residue."
"The powerful people assumed your family would just move on."
"The US army underestimated my daddy. " Vena held my hand, releasing dark purple energy.
I easily absorbed the anger and trauma, but with it came memories. Vena's parents had to fight for every piece of evidence, every 'classified' document, name, and image. "Are your parents still fighting the military?
"Yeah, it's been over ten years but I know my daddy will keep fighting until his last breath. I guess that's why I'm still here."
"In northern Canada?"
That got a laugh. "In the in-between," Vena explained. "I can't get to heaven, hell, or even be reborn. But when my dad does take his last breath, I'll be at his side. Maybe I'll even get to walk with him to the light."
My hands trembled, glowing with cold blue energy.
"Sorry," Vena said, gripping my hand. "Blue energy means sadness. I apologize for hitting a sore subject."
I nodded, but I was not ready to talk to her about my relationship with my dad. (That would only result in more blue energy until my spirit was too frozen to move.) "Do you know the joke about Hell?"
"I know a few, what's yours?"
"A tribal leader is about to be burned to death by the Spanish army. The executioner asks if he'd like to accept Christ, for a chance at heaven. But the tribal leader asked, 'Does your kind go to heaven?' The Spaniard replied, with a tall proud stance, 'Of course!' Well, in that case, I think I'll take my chances in hell."
Vena doubled over with laughter. "Oh, God, that is so true! I have no doubt that my killer is going to die peacefully surrounded by family maybe even a priest offering him absolution." She went from laughter to slight tears. "Maybe then he'll confess his sins and my family can finally have some closure. But that's my cross to bear." She looked down at her feet, then up at an elaborate gate. "Anyway, we're here. Best of luck Tia.
"Thank you." Hanging out with Vena secured the validity of my plan. The system was against us, protecting the big strong men who took our lives. Only when the overly important bastards admit to their sins could we, the victims, hope to move on.
I stayed outside the gate, watching the sunrise. By the first light of morning, the parents started to arrive, dropping their children off at the security checkpoint. I just had to wait for the name.
"Adam Ryder signing in Tanya Elizabeth Fish-Ryder?" He didn't get out of the car but the guard typed the name into his tablet.
"Bye, Daddy!"
Tanya, a fashionable fourth grader with her mother's ebony black hair and perfectly ironed school uniform. The security was strong, I imagine that had I not been a ghost, stalking any of the students would've proved difficult.
I followed her throughout the day, living a life that I could only dream of. She went to class with the same teacher for the majority of the day. At lunch she sat with her friends, eating sushi from a shimmery metallic lunch box.
"You painted that yourself, didn't you," I said out loud.
Tanya froze. She looked around for a moment, before shrugging.
Knowing there was the possibility she could hear me I kept quiet for the rest of the day. Lunch was followed by art, science, and computer programming. She had after school violin lessons for a few hours. It was mostly her playing around with melodies. She could play along with various pop-songs in various languages. It was actually kind of impressive. After the lesson Tanya walked outside, waiting in the cold, with her earbuds in, listening to music on a small iPod that looked older than her. In less than a minute, she was picked up by her Hispanic Nanny. The elderly woman held open the door to what I assumed was Adam Ryder's posh Jeep Cherokee. She arranged Tanya's bags as she took a seat and when they were settled she tapped on the driver's side window to signal the chauffeur.
I gripped the back of the vehicle, using my energy to create a firm hold as I rode on the bumper. The Fish-Ryder family lived in a quiet cabin a few miles away, in a rather unique, beautiful gated community.
I walked through the door to the sight of a family home. There was a kitchen, a living room, even a fireplace. And pictures, so many pictures. The walls were covered in memories; school photos, vacations, even professional portraits of a happy family. Was this even the home of Randell Fish?
And then I spotted a single photo. It was him, taking his grand-kids ice fishing. "Fucking bastard."
"Are you talking about my grandpa?"
Before I could reply, Tanya grabbed the photo and headed upstairs. Somehow, I guess, she knew I would follow. Tanya's second-floor room was a museum of pop-culture from the latest dolls, to teen idols, and even a camera set up. "Do you have a YouTube channel?" My question went unanswered as she powered up her laptop. "Um, hello?"
"I'll be the one to ask the questions. If you don't mind," Tanya replied sounding much older than her years. "I'm just going to assume you won't show up on film, so if you please will you do something for the camera to prove your existence?"
"For your viewers?" I glared at the camera which was capturing footage directly to the hard drive of the laptop. "Are you some kind of amateur ghost hunter?" I grabbed the photo back from where she had placed it face down on her desk, lifting it to the level of the camera.
"So what do you want with my grandpa?" she asked, like a reporter.
On the screen, I could see Tanya interviewing what appeared to be a floating framed picture. It was actually kind of adorable.
"Did he run you off the road?"
Those were not words I expected from a nine-year-old. "Is that something he does a lot?
"All truckers do it."
"Your grandpa told you that?"
"Yup. Grandpa told me that your kind are like wild game animals; if responsible hunters didn't thin the herd you'd drain our nation's resources dry. That's why you all have names like John Running Horse or Jane Hopping Rabbit."
"You can't honestly believe that." Just how many people had Randell Fish killed?
"My grandpa has no reason to lie."
I focused on the laptop screen, watching the photo floating gently in the air. I knew I needed to keep my cool. Tanya wanted a show, that's all it was. I focused on the door, securing both the deadbolt and the key lock. "Be a dear and contact your grandpa."
"How?" she asked sweetly, keeping in character. "How should I contact my grandpa?"
Knowing Tanya wanted to capture another trick for the camera, I focused on her phone. I easily lifted the small iPhone from the bed, making it land in her lap. "You can call your grandpa or attempt to call for help, either one works for me."
Tanya only chuckled, placing the phone on her desk.
Ok, apparently I needed to be a little more forceful. I moved closer, placing my hand to her neck. As expected my ghost hand passed right through. Yet as I clenched my fist I could feel I was gripping something.
Tanya started to cough, and spit as she struggled to breathe. Seeing that she was turning blue I decided that I had made my point. She collapsed to the floor, gripping her neck. "Your kind killed my mother!" Tanya crossed her arms over her stomach, gripping her chest as she sobbed. "Mom was nothing like Grandpa, she supported 'black lives matter,' 'red lives matter,' 'all lives matter,' or whatever. She said as a good Catholic we needed to love our fellow man because everyone is someone's child, and we're all equal in the eyes of God! She preached love, supported charities, and even would pick a fight with Grandpa every chance she got!" Tanya struggled to breathe as she wiped snot from her nose. "Do you know what that got her? A bullet in the head!"
"I know."
"You know?" Tanya sat up. She wiped her tears with her clean sleeve, before looking me in the eyes.
"My father was there."
Tanya nodded as she took a moment to digest that information. "So, this is all some kind of daisy chain of revenge?"
"Yup, you could say that. But it ends with Randell Fish."
"I understand." Tanya reached for her phone. She looked through her contacts, took a deep breath, and dialed. It rang only once. "Hi, Papa."
"Put the phone on speaker," I said, hoping my voice was not audible over the phone.
Tanya nodded and did as I asked. "Where are you, Papa?"
"I'm about twenty miles out," Randell replied. "Why do you ask, sweetheart?"
"I was wondering if you could come to dinner," Tanya spoke in a sweet energetic voice. "I really miss you."
"Aww, I miss you too Tanya. What time should I try to be there?"
Tanya glanced over at the clock, it was already six at night. "Seven or eight, whatever's easier."
"I'll be there as soon as I can, sweetheart. I love you."
"I love you too, Grandpa." Tanya hung up the phone. "So, what now? Are we going to just stay in here until he arrives?"
"Yeah, that sounds about right," I said with a nod. "You have a bathroom and if you don't have snacks hidden around here you are truly a weird kid."
Tanya smiled, reaching directly behind her. She looked to be grabbing a leg of her desk, but with the flick of her wrist, a secret panel opened, dispensing a single fun-size candy bar. "What kind of snacks did you hide in your room as a kid?"
"I was always partial for beef jerky or cheap off-brand twinkies."
"The off brands always taste better," Tanya said with a smirk.
As she picked up her phone, I noticed the lock screen, it was her mother's college graduation picture. "You're really proud of her."
"There was a lot to be proud of." Tanya's voice was soft, filled with genuine emotion.
It was clear she was a lost soul looking for guidance, in the wake of her mother's death.
We talked for a while, and I finally got the chance to introduce myself.
"Your name is Tianna, like the Frog princess? That's kinda cool."
At around seven, there was a knock at the door. "Tanya, sweetie, it's Grandpa. Why is your door locked?"
Tanya looked at me. "I'm going to open the door, Tianna."
I nodded, knowing Randell Fish heard my name.
The tall older man wore his work clothes as if his semi-truck was parked right in the front driveway. He took a look around the room. "Who are you talking to sweetheart?"
Without a second thought, I punched Randell Fish in the chest as hard as I could. He doubled over in pain, his body melting into my ghostly form. My hand was gripping something; a bone, maybe part of a lung? Certainly not a heart.
Tanya took a step back. "I'm sorry, Grandpa."
"You're sorry?" he said with a laugh, as blood dripped from his mouth.
I gripped harder, pulling at whatever I had my hands on. "She's nothing like you." Your daughter, Sophia, was an amazing person and I am truly sorry for her death."
Randell was still smiling. "Does your dead, drug-dealer daddy know how the police found your body? Does he know you died sucking off that dirty cop?"
"Jay is not..." I pulled towards myself, tearing my hand from his chest, through his neck, to his head. Randell was still smiling like a psychopath as his body fell limp to the ground.
Tanya was screaming, she was huddled in a corner with her knees pulled to her chest.
I looked down at my hand, unable to fully comprehend what I was holding. It was a mass of gore, spilling off my hands on to the floor. As I stood up, moving away from the body, I could see identifiable parts. There was a trail of organ meat that was once his throat, stomach, and small intestines. In my hand was his brain. I started to laugh. "I did it, Jay. I took his head."
Tanya's father arrived, along with the cook and the nanny. That was when I heard a beep. It was an alarm from the laptop. Everyone turned to see the pop-up, "Capture limit has been reached." The camera had been on the entire time.
The next few days seemed to rush by in a flurry of lights, and voices. The police took the laptop and the body. According to what they saw, Randell Fish fell to the floor, hitting his head over and over until (somehow) his brain fell out of his mangled skull.
Tanya had been right; I did not show up on film. The final footage made no sense. The girl was clearly talking to someone for over an hour before her white-trash trucker grandpa arrived. Clearly, he had a heart attack (not uncommon for a man his age,) that was deemed to be the cause of death.
Tanya was given back her computer and went straight to her YouTube page. Since the death had been deemed an accident she was allowed to post the footage (the footage that wouldn't get her channel in trouble for mature or obscene content.)
She spoke to her followers about the mysterious First Nation ghost. She didn't mention me by name, only that I was one of many victims killed due to race, age, or gender.
"As many of you know my mom was a judge," she said, speaking into her mic. "When she died, all I knew was that someone with dark skin murdered the most important person in my life. People around me just repeated that; bad dark-skinned people killed your mother, bad dark-skinned people are what's wrong with our society. But that's not the truth.
When you lump all people into one group based on physical traits it doesn't make us strong, it makes us weak. We need to stand together to help one another, to make this world a better place. One voice at a time." Tanya looked up from her notes and wiped tears from her eyes. "Now I just have to wait for this to render." She looked around, "Tianna, Are you there?"
I was about to speak when suddenly I was pulled backward with a strong force.This was the end of my story. I was about to move on.
Tanya, if you read this; I love you, and I know you'll make your mother proud.
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